About state of development and requirements on a transboundary operational flood forecasting system in the Odra river basin Study within the frame of the BMBF-Project Simulation of flood events in the Odra basin with a coupled model system (The project this report is based on was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Science and Technology under the registration number 01 LA 9906/9907. The author is responsible for the content of this publication.) Produced by the Chair of Hydrology and Water Management of the Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus Project co-ordination: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. habil. Uwe Grünewald Authors: Dipl.-Hydr. Christine Brodersen Dipl.-Hydr. Sabine Schümberg Dipl.-Geoök. Anne Schmitt Dr.-Ing. Michael Kaltofen Dipl.-Ing. (FH) Egbert Gassert with use of supplements of: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Wrocław Doz. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Dubicki & Mgr. Józefa Malinowska-Małek Maritime Research Institute (MRI), Szczecin Prof. Dr. habil. Ing. Wladyslaw Buchholz & Dr. Ryszard Ewertowski Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (ČHMÚ), Ostrava Ing. Arnošt Hošek Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poznań Prof. Dr. habil. Ing. Piotr Kowalczak Cottbus, December 2000 Contents 1 Motivation, objectives and proceeding ............................................................................1 1.1 Motivation................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Objectives.................................................................................................................................................2 1.3 Proceeding................................................................................................................................................2 2 Brief description of the Odra river basin ........................................................................3 2.1 Hydrography............................................................................................................................................3 2.2 Climate and precipitation conditions.....................................................................................................7 2.3 Discharge and floods ...............................................................................................................................8 2.4 Hydraulic engineering and flood defence structures............................................................................9 3 Legal basis and responsibilities ......................................................................................13 3.1 Czech Republic ......................................................................................................................................13 3.2 Republic of Poland ................................................................................................................................16 3.3 Federal Republic of Germany ..............................................................................................................19 3.4 International co-operation....................................................................................................................22 4 Flood forecast and early flood warning systems ...........................................................24 4.1 Fundamental requirements on flood forecast .....................................................................................24 4.2 State of development of operational flood forecast and early flood warning systems.....................27 5 Causes for floods in the Odra river basin......................................................................30 5.1 Winter half-year ....................................................................................................................................31 5.2 Summer half-year..................................................................................................................................33 6 About the state of the operational flood forecast in the Odra river basin..................35 6.1 Flood forecast for the Upper Odra – Czech Republic........................................................................37 6.1.1 Meteorological forecast service by the ČHMÚ...............................................................................37 6.1.2 Hydrological forecast service by the ČHMÚ ..................................................................................38 6.1.3 Planned activities ............................................................................................................................41 6.2 Flood forecast for the Upper and Middle Odra river - Poland .........................................................42 6.2.1 Meteorological forecast service by the IMGW Wrocław................................................................43 6.2.2 Hydrological forecast service by the IMGW Wrocław...................................................................44 6.2.3 Planned activities ............................................................................................................................47 I 6.3 Flood forecast for the Lower Odra river and Warta river – Poland................................................51 6.3.1 Hydrological forecast service by the IMGW Poznań......................................................................51 6.3.2 Situation on the Lower Odra river...................................................................................................52 6.4 Flood forecast on the Border Odra - Germany (Brandenburg) ........................................................53 6.4.1 Meteorological Forecast Service by the DWD................................................................................53 6.4.2 Hydrological forecast service in Brandenburg by the LUA Brandenburg.......................................53 6.4.3 Planned activities ............................................................................................................................54 6.5 Flood forecast for the Lausitzer Neiße river – Germany (Saxony, Brandenburg) ..........................55 6.5.1 Meteorological forecast for the Lausitzer Neiße river by the DWD ...............................................56 6.5.2 Flood forecast for the Lausitzer Neiße river in Saxony...................................................................56 6.5.3 Flood forecast for the Lausitzer Neiße river in Brandenburg..........................................................58 7 Scientific-technical projects for flood simulation and pre-cautionary flood protection ................................................................................................................59 7.1 Flood simulation projects......................................................................................................................60 7.1.1 LISFLOOD .....................................................................................................................................60 7.1.2 ODRAFLOOD................................................................................................................................62 7.2 Further projects for flood protection...................................................................................................65 7.2.1 Planning basis for pre-cautionary flood protection .........................................................................65 7.2.2 Projects for flood information systems............................................................................................66 8 Summary and résumé......................................................................................................69 8.1 Summary of the present state of development of the operational flood forecast in the Odra river basin..........................................................................................................................69 8.2 Approaches for the improvement of the operational flood forecast in the Odra river basin..........71 8.2.1 Data collection and data supply ......................................................................................................72 8.2.2 Model structure and components ....................................................................................................72 8.2.3 Integration of model operators and users of model results..............................................................73 8.2.4 Use of pre-operational models ........................................................................................................74 8.2.5 Transboundary co-operation ...........................................................................................................75 8.2.6 Co-ordination of ongoing and planned activities ............................................................................76 8.3 Résumé ...................................................................................................................................................78 References................................................................................................................................80 Abbreviation index .................................................................................................................86 Appendix..................................................................................................................................90 II Register of figures Fig. 1: Odra river basin with its