Massachusetts Institute of Department of Urban Studies and Planning Technology ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE GREATER EVERGLADES LANDSCAPE Key West, Great White Heron and National Key Deer National Wildlife Refuges Technical Brief Summary Project Summary assumptions with four dimensions. Each Alternative Future visu- alizes land use patterns and landscape changes such as coastal “Addressing the Challenge of Climate Change in the Greater inundation, urbanization, and conservation expansion. Future Everglades Landscape” is a research initiative funded by the U.S. changes in conservation lands are modeled and/or designed Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey based on the input from managers and other local experts, using (USGS) and carried out by a group of researchers at the Depart- the best available ecological information and data. ment of Urban Studies and Planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Refuge Context The study investigates possible trajectories of future transforma- Key West, Great White Heron and National Key Deer National Wild- tion in Florida’s Greater Everglades landscape relative to four main life Refuges are located in the Florida Keys, approximately 100 drivers: climate change, shifts in planning approaches and regula- miles southwest of Miami. Key West and Great White Heron are tions, population change, and variations in financial resources. satellites of the National Key Deer NWR. The refuge habitats are Through a systematic exploration at the landscape-scale, this composed of mangrove islands, beaches and dunes, salt marsh research identifies some of the major challenges to future conser- wetlands, sea grass, patch reefs, tropical hardwood hammocks, vation efforts and illustrates a planning method which can gener- and pine rockland forests. More than 250 species of birds utilized ate conservation strategies resilient to a variety of climatic and this critical habitat for nesting, feeding and as a migration stop. socioeconomic conditions. Key West provides habitat for the endangered green and log- This project integrates the best available scientific information on gerhead sea turtles and the threatened roseate tern. Great White climate change with local knowledge and expertise in order to cre- Heron supports these same species and the endangered rice rat. ate a suite of management-relevant scenarios for Florida’s Greater National Key Deer supports the last 800 remaining endangered Everglades landscape. Scenarios are conceived not as blueprints Key deer. The refuge is also home to the following species: wood for the future, but rather as learning tools for managing in the face stork (E), lower Keys rabbit (E), garber’s spurge (E), rice rat (E), Key of uncertainty. The scenarios are internally-consistent bundles of tree-cactus (E), eastern indigo snake (T) and tree snail (T). Refuges Context Characterization Great White Heron Key West National Key Deer Refuge Area 200,000 acres 189,000 acres 84,851 acres County Monroe Monroe Monroe Trust Resources green and loggerhead sea turtle, rice rat, green and loggerhead sea turtle, threatened Key deer, wood stork, lower Keys rabbit, gar- threatened roseate tern roseate tern ber’s spurge, rice rat, Key tree-cactus, eastern indigo snake, stock island tree snail Figure 1. Location in Study Region Nat’l Wildlife Refuges Freshwater Wetlands Nat’l Park System Saltwater Habitats Agriculture Forested Dry Open or Scrub Urban Open water Legend Figure 2. Refuge Context Area Florida Keys Refuges Technical Brief 1 December 2010 MIT Scenarios in the Greater Everglades Landscape: 2010-2060 Given the range of uncertainties in dealing with climate holder group. The stakeholder group was asked to discuss and change, the MIT research team developed a series of sce- prioritize potential scenario designs. narios in collaboration with a wide range of stakeholders. The stakeholder group articulated four top-level scenario di- The MIT scenarios consider how climate change (primarily mensions: sea level rise, population, financial resources, and sea level rise), conservation, demographics, the economy, land useplanning assumptions (Figure 3. Scenario Dimensions and land use planning transform the future landscape of the Table). Within these dimensions, stakeholders developed a Greater Everglades. Each scenario is comprised of a set of bounded range of possible values and picked a small set of input assumptions that determine how these major factors measurable indicators from the best available science. interact and manifest themselves spatially over time. The research team assembled representatives from federal, state and local government to serve as the project’s stake- Scenarios CURRENT LAND-USE CURRENT LAND USE PROJECTED LAND USE Nat’l Wildlife Sea Level Rise Nat’l Park System Agriculture Agriculture Conservation Conservation Urban Urban SCENARIO A POPULATION DOUBLE TREND CLIMATE PLANNING CHANGE H M L BAU PRO ASSUMPTIONS $ $$$ FINANCIAL RESOURCES SCENARIO B POPULATION DOUBLE TREND CLIMATE PLANNING CHANGE H M L BAU PRO ASSUMPTIONS $ $$$ FINANCIAL RESOURCES 2 Florida Keys Refuges Technical Brief December 2010 Scenario Development Scenario Dimensions Scenarios were refined in four large workshops over the course SEA LEVEL POPULATION PLANNING FINANCIAL of a year. In the first two workshops, scenario components RISE ASSUMPTIONS RESOURCES were discussed in a relatively abstract fashion based on litera- ture review. (inches) (in millions) (BAU vs. Proactive) (Low vs. High) In the third and fourth workshops, all of the variables were ex- 3.6 Trend (25) Business as $ pressed quantitatively and represented geographically across Usual (B.A.U.) the study area at different scales. Each of the scenarios repre- sents a bundle of internally consistent input assumptions and 18.4 Double (29) Proactive $$$ dimensions. The full set of possible input assumptions is found 39.1 in the Scenario Dimensions table to the right (Figure 3). Figure 3. Scenario Dimensions Table SCENARIO C POPULATION DOUBLE TREND CLIMATE PLANNING CHANGE H M L BAU PRO ASSUMPTIONS $ $$$ FINANCIAL RESOURCES SCENARIO E POPULATION DOUBLE TREND CLIMATE PLANNING CHANGE H M L BAU PRO ASSUMPTIONS $ $$$ FINANCIAL RESOURCES SCENARIO I POPULATION DOUBLE TREND CLIMATE PLANNING CHANGE H M L BAU PRO ASSUMPTIONS $ $$$ FINANCIAL RESOURCES Florida Keys Refuges Technical Brief 3 December 2010 Climate Change Factor: Sea Level Rise Methodology Climate Change Factor: Sea Level Rise in 2060 Sea level rise was computed in GIS using a “bathtub” model. In this form of modeling, sea level inundation is simulated based on areas currently within a given vertical eleva- tion from the 0 elevation level of a digital elevation model (DEM). This process can- not distinguish between areas which are hydrologically connected to the ocean and those which are isolated. In Southern Flor- ida and the Greater Everglades landscape, the prevalence of pervious bedrock means that most such areas near the coast will be inundated. In interior regions, the indicated regions are more likely to be subject to high CURRENT SHORELINE water tables. However, this form of model- ing does not take into account drainage, pumping and other active management methods which are common in south and central Florida. A digital elevation model was created by mosaicing together the best available ter- rain elevation data. The base model was taken from the USGS National Elevation Da- taset (NED). The Everglades Depth Estima- Sea Level Rise Inundation (Percentage) tion Network (EDEN) was used to provide Great White Heron 59.4% improved vertical accuracy within its area Key West 8.0% of coverage. Similarly, a “bald earth” terrain National Key Deer 39.7% LOW SLR + 9 cm (+3.6”) LOW model derived by NOAA from 2007 LIDAR was used for the four most Southeastern- counties where it was available. No attempt was made to correct the zero elevation points of the input DEMs to a tidal datum. Therefore, these results should be taken as an index of risk of inundation or high water table, rather than as a prediction of a certain specific water level. MIT Climate Change Scenarios Sea Level Rise Inundation (Percentage) MIT low and moderate climate change sce- Great White Heron 96.3% narios are consonant with IPCC 2007 climate Key West 95.6% change results in that they fall within the National Key Deer 72.7% MEDIUM SLR + 47 cm (+18.4”) range of values projected by current down- scaled models for the study region. The climate variable ranges considered by our “low climate change” correspond to Constant CO2 and 3.6 inches of sea level rise by 2060. Our “moderate climate change” corresponds to IPCC A2 and 18.4 inches by 2060. Our stakeholders felt that it was im- portant to consider the potential impacts of ice sheet melting in our “high climate Sea Level Rise Inundation (Percentage) change” scenarios. Therefore we based its Great White Heron 99.8% values on an average of temperature and sea level rise values obtained from peer-re- Key West 98.8% National Key Deer 93.7% viewed literature. HIGH SLR + 99cm (+ 39.1”) 4 Florida Keys Refuges Technical Brief December 2010 Climate Change Factor: Temperature Methodology Climate Change Scenarios and IPCC Scenario Definitions 4 Temperature predictions were obtained MIT temp. Constant CO 2 from the National Center for Atmospheric 3 MIT High B1 o o o (+3.8 C or 7 F) Research (NCAR). These data represent C) A1B the ensemble averages of several global A2 climate change models. These were statis- 2 tically downscaled by NCAR and provided MIT Mid o o as GIS point data with approximately 4 (+2.2 C or 4 F) 1 kilometer spacing between samples. We further downscaled this data using inverse distance weighting interpolation. This 0 MIT Low o o generated grids of resolution and extent ( Warming Global Surface (+.55 C or 1 F) comparable to our other study area grids, -1 with 50 meter horizontal resolution. We converted temperatures from degrees Kel- 1900 2000 2060 2100 vin to degrees Celsius. These grids were Year Adopted from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/images/ipcc_scenario_prediction.gif intersected with masks of FWS refuges and their context areas using map algebra.