UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE DE HAUTES ETUDES INTERNATIONALES THE TRANSFER OF DUAL-USE OUTER SPACE TECHNOLOGIES: CONFRONTATION OR CO- OPERATION? Thèse présentée à l’Université de Genève pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur en relations internationales par Péricles GASPARINI ALVES (Brésil) Thèse No. 612 GENEVE 2000 © Copyright by Péricles GASPARINI ALVES Epigraph The first of December had arrived! the fatal day! for, if the projectile were not discharged that very night at 10h. 46m.40s. p.m., more than eighteen years must roll by before the moon would again present herself under the same conditions of zenith and perigee. The weather was magnificent. ... The whole plain was covered with huts, cottages, and tents. Every nation under the sun was represented there; and every language might be heard spoken at the same time. It was a perfect Babel re-enacted. ... The moment had arrived for saying ‘Goodbye!’ The scene was a touching one. ... ‘Thirty-five!—thirty-six!—thirty-seven!—thirty-eight!—thirty-nine!—forty! Fire!!!’ Instantly Murchison pressed with his finger the key of the electric battery, restored the current of the fluid, and discharged the spark into the breach of the Columbiad. An appalling, unearthly report followed instantly, such as can be compared to nothing whatever known, not even to the roar of thunder, or the blast of volcanic explosion! No words can convey the slightest idea of the terrific sound! An immense spout of fire shot up from the bowels of the earth as from a crater. The earth heaved up, and ... View of the Moon in orbit around the Earth, Galileo Spacecraft, 16 December 1992 image002 Courtesy of NASA ‘The projectile discharged by the Columbiad at Stones Hill has been detected ...12th December, at 8.47 pm., the moon having entered her last quarter. This projectile has not arrived at its destination, it has passed by the side; but sufficiently near to be retained by the lunar attraction. ... ‘However, two hypotheses come here into our consideration. ‘1. Either the attraction of the moon will end by drawing them into itself, and the travellers will attain their destination; or, — ‘2. The projectile, following an immutable law, will continue to gravitate round the moon till the end of time. ‘At some future time, our observations will be able to determine this point, but till then the experiment of the Gun Club can have no other result than to have provided our solar system with a new star. Extracted from the Chapters “Fire!” & “A New Star” From the Earth to the Moon Jules Verne 1865 Acknowledgments The decision to write a Thesis dissertation may not be too difficult to make, especially since obtaining a Doctoral’s Degree at the end of a Thesis process is an encouraging stimulus. However, ideas are always easier to conceive and announce than to implement: writing a PhD. Thesis is no exception. Nonetheless, despite the many difficulties one may encounter in writing a dissertation, the level of satisfaction that may be enjoyed when arriving at the finish line is often greater than any obstacle encountered on the way. This has been my own experience. The road I took to write this manuscript was not always an easy one to ride on. I have encountered many obstacles which made this endeavour evermore difficult than it could have been otherwise. Some of these obstacles were predictable, since they were clearly in confrontation with my démarche. In retrospect, they have not been strong enough to stop me from moving mountains in a crusade of words and deeds. Other obstacles, however, were considerably more difficult to surmount for reasons which are not worth mentioning here. Fortunately, my efforts and determination were stronger than their opposition and the prospective reader shall judge if it was worthwhile the effort to finish this work. I would like to mention those who facilitated the completion of this work and my first thanks goes to those who played a fundamental role in supporting my original ideas and efforts. Namely, Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala, then Director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and at present UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs, who always supported my work and ceaselessly advised me to continue pursuing my studies. His successor, Mr Sverre Lodgaard, always hinted that I should pay more attention to potential contributions that confidence-and security-building measures could provide to the technology transfer debate; and Patricia Lewis, current UNIDIR Director, supported my efforts to complete this manuscript. Additionally, special thanks are also addressed to Professor Serge Sur, former Deputy Director of UNIDIR, for the long hours of conversation on space and related matters during my tenure at the Institute. His comments and support were very much appreciated. My sincere and warm thanks must go to Mr Curt Gasteyger, Emeritus Professor and Director of the Programme for Strategic Studies and International Security at the Graduate Institute of International Studies (IUHEI). Besides being one of my teachers at IUHEI and Director of my Thesis, Professor Gasteyger was also Director of two other works of mine at the Institute: a Memoire de Diplôme in 1988 and Memoire de diplome d’etude superior (DES) in 1993. It was therefore a pleasure and indeed an honour that he accepted to be the Director of my PhD. Every since the early stages of this Thesis, Professor Gasteyger provided me with important strategic advice as regards both the general line of thought of this work and issues of substance. I must note here that he did not always agree with my description or appreciation of events and ideas, but his doubts only encouraged me to better clarify my views. This feature of our student/professor relationship was quite challenging and extremely important to stimulate my thoughts. Additionally, I should also like to attest my gratitude for Professor Gasteyger’s institutional and moral support throughout my many years of studies at IUHEI, without which I would probably not have been able to carry-out this work. I also thank all of those who assisted me in visiting various space and space-related factories and installations throughout the world, interview scientists and technicians on-site. This proved to be extremely useful since for me, as a student of international relations, I was neither trained nor exposed to detailed technical aspects of outer space technologies. The support of Véronique Marie Clément Alves, my wife, was also essential for me to face the challenge of writing a PhD Thesis and I thank her many hours of patience and active support for me to carry on this important but tedious work. Miss Riche Pannetti of Geneva deserves special mention in this acknowledgments. Miss Pannetti has assisted me making the necessary language corrections and indeed polishing the English to be appreciated in its own merit. She has not measured efforts in helping me and often exceeded regular working hours to finish one more sentence, paragraph, page, chapter... Unfortunately, for reasons of time, she did not have the opportunity to finish all the corrections. I also thank her for being a true friend at good and difficult moments. Last, but not least, while apologizing for those whom I may have unintentionally omitted, I should like to state that the responsibility of the statements in this Thesis are my own and neither of those whom I have mentioned nor of the Institution I work for. Péricles Gasparini Alves, Lima, 2001 List of Acronyms and Symbols ABL Airborne Laser ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (USA) ACRS Arms Control and Regional Security ADCP Air Defence Communication Platform AEGIS Ship-mounted weapons system AG Australian Group AGRE Active Geophysical Rocket Experiment AHWG Ad Hoc Working Group ALCM Air-Launched Cruise Missile ALERT Attack & Launch Early Reporting to Theatre AMI Active Microwave Instrument ANSC Alliance New Strategic Concept ANSP Australian National Space Programme AN/TPS Ground-based radar AOC Air Operations Centre AR Altimeter Radar ARABSAT Arab Corporation for Space Communication ARGOS Data Collecting System ARR Andøya Rocket Range (Norway) ARTEMIS Advanced Relay TEchnology MISsion (ESA) ASAR Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar ASAT Anti-Satellite weapons ASB Australian Space Board ASBM Air-to-Surface Ballistic Missile ASI Italian Space Agency ASLV Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle (India) ASO Australian Space Office ATSR Along-Track Scanning Radiometer ATSR-M Along-Track Scanning Radiometer & Microwave Sounder AUSSAT Australian Satellite AWACS Airborne Warning and Control System Bae British Aerospace BEAR Beam Experiment Aboard Rocket (SDI) BM Ballistic Missile BM/C3 Battle Management/Command, Control, Communications BMD Ballistic Missile Defense BMDO Ballistic Missile Defense Organization BMFT Federal Ministry for Research and Technology (Germany) BMI Ballistic Missile Interception BNSC British National Space Centre BPI Boost-Phase Interceptor BRAZILSAT Brazilian Satellite BSA Brazilian Space Agency BSTS Boost Surveillance and Tracking Satellite BUR Bottom-Up Review BW Biological Weapons BWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention C2 Command and Control C3I Communications, Command, Control and Intelligence CALT China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology CASDN National Defence Scientific Steering Committee (France) CAST Chinese Academy of Space Technology CASTR Chinese Academy of Space Technology Research CBERS China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite CBMs Confidence-Building