World Food Programme S P E C I A L R E P O R T FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SOUTH SUDAN 28 March 2018 Photographs: ©FAO/A. Gonzalez Farran and L. Visser. This report has been prepared by Alessandro Costantino and Wondimagegne Shiferaw (FAO) and Rogério Bonifácio (WFP) under the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and other sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required. Mario Zappacosta Valerie Guarnieri Senior Economist, EST/GIEWS Regional Director Trade and Markets Division, FAO East and Central Africa (RBN), WFP E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Please note that this Special Report is also available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web www.fao.org at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/ and http://www.wfp.org/food- security/reports/CFSAM The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) has set up a mailing list to disseminate its reports. To subscribe, send an email to FAO's mail server [email protected]. Leave the subject blank and then put in the first line of the message the following: subscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L To unsubscribe from the GIEWSAlertsWorld-L list, put in the first line of the message the following: unsubscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L S P E C I A L R E P O R T FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SOUTH SUDAN 28 March 2018 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME Rome, 2018 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-130378-8 © FAO, 2018 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected]. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. - 5 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acronyms and abbreviations .....................................................................................................................6 Mission Highlights .......................................................................................................................................7 1. OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................................7 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Population and population movements.......................................................................................... 10 2.2 Economy ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 Economic growth and national budget ......................................................................... 11 2.2.2 Exchange rate .............................................................................................................. 12 2.2.3 Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Agriculture ..................................................................................................................................... 14 3. CEREAL PRODUCTION IN 2017 ................................................................................................. 16 3.1 Cereal harvested area and yield estimates ................................................................................... 16 3.2 Factors affecting yields .................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.1 Rainfall ......................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 Inputs in the traditional smallholder sector .................................................................. 24 3.2.3 Pests, diseases and weeds ......................................................................................... 25 3.3 Agricultural production in 2017 ...................................................................................................... 26 3.3.1 Cereal production ......................................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 Other crops .................................................................................................................. 32 3.3.3 Livestock ...................................................................................................................... 33 4. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION ................................................................................... 34 4.1 Cereal balance ............................................................................................................................... 34 4.2 Cereal and livestock markets ......................................................................................................... 36 5. HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY SITUATION ............................................................................. 39 5.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 39 5.2 Main drivers of food insecurity in 2018 .......................................................................................... 39 5.3 Current and projected IPC food security outcomes for 2018…………… ...................................... 40 5.4 Evolution of the food security situation .......................................................................................... 41 5.5 Household staple food supply: Markets vs household production ................................................ 43 5.6 Food expenditure: Recent patterns and at-harvest situation ......................................................... 45 5.7 Household coping strategies ......................................................................................................... 46 5.8 Estimated food assistance requirements in 2018 .......................................................................... 47 6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 2018 ................................................................................................ 48 Annex 1: Indicative seasonal cropping calendar ................................................................................... 50 Annex 2: Agricultural situation by area, 2017 ........................................................................................ 51 Annex 3: CCMC - Training provided by FAO, February-August 2017 .................................................. 68 Annex 4: CCMCs - Established and made operational, 2016-2017 ..................................................... 69 - 6 - Acronyms and abbreviations AFIS Agriculture and Food Information System BCS Body Condition Score BOSS Bank of South Sudan CARI Consolidated Approach for Reporting of food security Indicators BQ Black Quarter BRACE Building Resilience through Asset Creation and Enhancement. CBPP Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia CBT Cash-Based Transfer CCPP Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia CCMC County Crop Monitoring Committee CFSAM Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission DLCO Desert Locust Control Organization FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAW Fall Armyworm FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FFA Food for Assets FMD Foot and Mouth Disease FSNMS Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System f.o.b. Free On Board GDP Gross Domestic Product GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture GRSS Government of the Republic of South Sudan ha hectare (0.42 hectares = 1 feddan) hh household IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IFDC International Fertilizer Development Company IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification kg kilogramme MAFS Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security mm millimetres MoA Ministry of Agriculture NARO National Agricultural Research Organization NBHS National Baseline Household Survey