Kazakhstan and the New International Politics of Eurasia Richard Weitz SILK ROAD PAPER July 2008 Kazakhstan and the New International Politics of Eurasia Richard Weitz © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Kazakhstan and the New International Politics of Eurasia” is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, July 2008 ISBN: 978-91-85937-33-2 Printed in the United States of America Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Institute for Security and Development Policy V. Finnbodavägen 2, SE-13130 Stockholm-Nacka E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above (preferably by e-mail.) Table of Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................ 5 Introduction.........................................................................................................9 The Institutional Framework............................................................................17 Commonwealth of Independent States .............................................................................17 Collective Security Treaty Organization..........................................................................21 Eurasian Economic Community .......................................................................................26 Shanghai Cooperation Organization .................................................................................31 North Atlantic Treaty Organization ................................................................................ 37 European Union..................................................................................................................42 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe...................................................48 Regional Security .............................................................................................. 57 Countering Regional WMD Threats................................................................................ 57 Enhancing Regional Security.............................................................................................64 Enhancing Regional Confidence-Building Measures...................................................... 73 Managing Regional Emergencies ......................................................................................76 Economics and Energy .....................................................................................78 Energy.................................................................................................................................. 81 Labor Mobility ....................................................................................................................87 Transnational Trade and Commerce................................................................................90 Kazakh Foreign Investment...............................................................................................94 Regional Commercial Services.......................................................................................... 95 Culture and Tourism..........................................................................................................98 Key Bilateral Relationships .............................................................................102 Major Powers .....................................................................................................................102 Regional Powers.................................................................................................................130 Central Asian States......................................................................................................... 148 South Caucasus States.......................................................................................................172 Conclusion........................................................................................................183 Acronyms .........................................................................................................187 Preface During the past half-decade Kazakhstan has accomplished something which no other state formed from the ruins of the USSR has achieved: beginning as a largely rural country with a small but politically powerful urban elite, it has emerged with a large and growing middle-class that increasingly seeks to make its voice heard in national affairs. Oil has been the engine of this change, but Kazakhstan is now working hard to diversify the sources of its wealth. Under any circumstances, such progress as has occurred would not have been possible without prudent reforms and innovative legislation. Nor could it have happened without a foreign policy that assured the country's security without tying it to any one outside power. In 2008, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center undertook a review of Kazakhstan's progress and current status in three areas: social evolution, political reform, and international security. This has already resulted in two monographs issued by the Joint center as Silk Road Papers: John C. K. Daly's Kazakhstan's Emerging Middle Class and Anthony Clive Bowyer's Parliament and Political Parties in Kazakhstan. With this paper by Richard Weitz, we conclude the series. Dr. Weitz, a Senior Fellow and Director for Program Management at the Hudson Institute, offers a detailed overview of Kazakhstan evolving role in regional security and economic relations, as well as its relationship with major international organizations and powers. Indeed, Dr. Weitz shows how Kazakhstan’s cautious and multi-vector foreign policy has contributed to strengthening the country and making it an increasingly independent power-house in Eurasia, with balanced and positive relations with all major and regional powers. We hope readers find this of interest. S. Frederick Starr Chairman Executive Summary Thanks to its large territory and population, vast energy wealth, relative political and ethnic stability, and skillful diplomacy, Kazakhstan has emerged as a leader of efforts to promote regional economic and political integration in Eurasia. Under President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakh officials have pursued a “multi-vector” foreign policy that has sought to maintain good relations with the most important external great powers and multinational institutions engaged in the region. Furthermore, Kazakh officials have sought for over a decade to strengthen ties among the countries of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin region—areas that define Kazakhstan’s “extended neighborhood.” In addition to their recurring proposals for a Eurasian union, Kazakh representatives have promoted concrete cooperation regarding a range of specific economic, political, and security areas. Kazakhstan plays a prominent role in Eurasia’s most important international institutions, either as a participant in their decisions or as a partner in their programs: • The Kazakh government has remained a loyal if frustrated supporter of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and was a founding member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO); • Kazakh officials have been leading advocates of strengthening the Eurasian Economic Community (Eurasec), especially in the areas of water management and standardization of members’ customs and tariff policies; • The Kazakh government has sought to strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) while preventing that institution from becoming overtly anti-American; • Kazakhstan has developed closer ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) than