EAST SURREY STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT 2008 East Surrey Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2007 / 08 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT........................................................................................................ 4 1.2 WHY CARRY OUT A STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT? ................................................ 4 1.3 METHODOLOGY AND REPORT STRUCTURE .................................................................................... 5 1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 GLOSSARY OF TERMS .................................................................................................................. 9 1.6 DATA BENCHMARKING.................................................................................................................. 9 1.7 KEY OUTPUTS OF THE SHMA....................................................................................................... 9 2 UNDERSTANDING THE EAST SURREY HOUSING MARKET.................................................... 11 2.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 THE CONTEXT OF EAST SURREY ................................................................................................ 11 2.3 IDENTIFYING HOUSING MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES .................................................................... 18 2.4 HOUSEHOLD MOVEMENTS .......................................................................................................... 20 2.5 TRAVEL TO WORK PATTERNS IN AND AROUND EAST SURREY ....................................................... 25 2.6 IS EAST SURREY A SINGLE MARKET?.......................................................................................... 26 3 STRATEGIC CONTEXT.................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 NATIONAL POLICIES ................................................................................................................... 28 3.3 OVERALL SUPPLY ...................................................................................................................... 28 3.4 REGIONAL AND COUNTY-WIDE POLICIES ..................................................................................... 34 3.5 LOCAL POLICY CONTEXT ............................................................................................................ 40 3.6 ELMBRIDGE ............................................................................................................................... 41 3.7 EPSOM & EWELL........................................................................................................................ 42 3.8 MOLE VALLEY............................................................................................................................ 44 3.9 REIGATE & BANSTEAD................................................................................................................ 47 3.10 TANDRIDGE ............................................................................................................................... 49 4 THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT..................................................................... 51 4.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 51 4.2 THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE................................................................................. 51 4.3 HOUSEHOLD NUMBERS, CHARACTERISTICS & COMPOSITION ....................................................... 55 4.4 MIGRATION ................................................................................................................................58 4.5 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF DEMAND................................................................................................ 61 4.6 THE IMPACT OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY...................................................... 61 4.7 KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................................ 61 4.8 EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................................ 62 4.9 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................. 64 4.10 OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................... 66 4.11 COMMUTERS ............................................................................................................................. 67 4.12 INCOME ..................................................................................................................................... 68 4.13 SKILLS AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ...................................................................................... 70 5 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ............................................................................................... 72 5.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 72 5.2 KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................................ 72 5.3 HOUSING UNITS......................................................................................................................... 73 5.4 TENURE PROFILE....................................................................................................................... 73 5.5 TYPE PROFILE ........................................................................................................................... 76 5.6 SIZE PROFILE ............................................................................................................................ 77 5.7 INTERMEDIATE HOUSING ............................................................................................................ 77 5.8 SECOND HOMES ........................................................................................................................ 78 5.9 PROPERTY CONDITION ............................................................................................................... 79 5.10 OVER-CROWDING AND UNDER-OCCUPATION .............................................................................. 81 5.11 SHARED HOUSING & COMMUNAL ESTABLISHMENTS..................................................................... 84 1 DCA East Surrey Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2007 / 08 6 THE ACTIVE MARKET................................................................................................................... 85 6.2 KEY POINTS:- ............................................................................................................................ 85 6.3 HOUSE PRICES .......................................................................................................................... 85 6.4 AFFORDABILITY ISSUES .............................................................................................................. 88 6.5 LOWEST QUARTILE ENTRY SALES LEVELS IN EAST SURREY......................................................... 91 6.6 PURCHASE INCOME THRESHOLDS............................................................................................... 92 6.7 RENTING A PROPERTY ............................................................................................................... 93 6.8 PRIVATE SECTOR ENTRY LEVEL RENTS IN EAST SURREY ............................................................ 94 6.9 RENTAL INCOME THRESHOLDS ................................................................................................... 95 6.10 VACANCIES, TURNOVER RATES AND AVAILABLE SUPPLY BY TENURE .............................................. 95 6.11 TURNOVER RATES ..................................................................................................................... 97 7 BRINGING THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER...................................................................................... 98 7.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 98 7.2 THE EAST SURREY MARKET ....................................................................................................... 98 7.3 TRENDS AND DRIVERS ............................................................................................................... 98 8 THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET.............................................................................................. 103 8.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................... 103 8.2 POPULATION PROJECTIONS...................................................................................................... 103 8.3 KEY FINDINGS.......................................................................................................................... 103 8.4 FORECAST CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS 2004-2026 ....................................................................