NEPAL ECONOMIC FORUM ISSUE 42 | SEPTEMBER 2020 ROAD TO RECOVERY: INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICES SPECIAL DOCKING NEPAL'S ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DOCKING NEPAL’S ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ISSUE 42 | SEPTEMBER 2020 CONTENTS SEPTEMBER 2020 | ISSUE 42 CONTENTS NEPAL FACTSHEET 4 EDITORIAL 5 1 GENERAL OVERVIEW 7 Political Overview 8 International Economy 11 2 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 16 3 SECTORAL REVIEW 20 Agriculture 21 Energy 23 Infrastructure 25 Real Estate 28 Education 30 Health 33 Tourism 36 Trade and Debt 39 Foreign Aid 43 Remittance 47 Environment 51 4 MARKET REVIEW 53 Financial Market 54 Capital Market 58 5 ROAD TO RECOVERY: INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICES SPECIAL 61 6 ENDNOTES 84 7 NEF Profile 90 FACTSHEETNEPAL FACTSHEET KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP *** USD 29.04 billion GDP Growth rate (%)** 2.3% GNI (PPP) *** USD 3360 Inflation (y-o-y) ** 6.15% Gross Capital Formation (% 50.2% Agriculture sector (% share of GDP)*** 27.65% of GDP) *** HDI * 0.579 Manufacturing sector (% share of GDP)*** 14.27% Rank 147 Service sector (% share of GDP)*** 58.08% *HDI figure from Human Development Report of the UNDP-2019 ** Based on Nepal Rastra Bank's 12 months data of 2019/20 *** Based on World Bank Data EDITORIAL As we head towards Dashain 2020, one cannot help but wonder what the largest festival of Nepal would be like amidst the ongoing pandemic. One Issue 42: September 2020 thing is certain though that this is an unprecedented situation that is going Publisher: Nepal Economic Forum Website: www.nepaleconomicforum.org to last throughout the year. As lockdown has been lifted and restrictions eased, long-distance travel along with domestic flights resumed, and P.O Box 7025, Krishna Galli, Lalitpur — Nepal’s land border opening in a few weeks, movement of people within 3, Nepal the nation, particularly, during the festival period is bound to increase. Phone: +977 1 554-8400 Email: [email protected] Therefore, with no sight to the end of the pandemic, the onus is upon the citizens to practice caution and safety measures during the festivities. Contributors: Anant Tamang Aayush Chandra Shrestha The economy owing to the pandemic and months of ensuing lockdown Ishan Bista has been in shambles. The World Bank estimates economic contraction of Nasala Maharjan 2.1 percent in this fiscal for Nepal. The fast approaching Dashain, which Pratyush Ghimire Raju Dhan Tuladhar historically is considered highest consumption period may in reality not Samita Shrestha look very promising either. The forecast is that, the consumption could Samridhi Pant be significantly lower than in comparison to previous years. Therefore, Shreyasha Singh another round of lockdown could further exacerbate the existing economic Sugam Nanda Bajracharya Tanushree Agrawal crisis. However, all is not gloomy, despite of the crippling lockdown, the nation’s e-commerce sector has experienced reasonable boost. It has shown Design & Layout: that with recalibration and reinvention, businesses could survive and even Thuprai Solutions [email protected] thrive amidst the crisis. This issue of nefport takes into account In the political scenario, apart from the internal conflicts within the news updates from May 15 2020 to August 15 2020. ruling party, major developments occurred in the last quarter. First is the departure of Dr. Yubaraj Khatiwada as the Minister of Finance and The USD conversion rate for this issue the Minister of Communication and Information Technology and his is NPR 120.02 to a dollar, the quarterly subsequent appointment as the Special Economic Advisor to the Prime average for this issue. Minister. Secondly, the departure of Mr. Kulman Ghising as the Managing Reproduction is authorised provided Director (MD) of the National Electricity Authority (NEA). The latter the source is acknowledged. rather than the former garnered more attention and scrutiny followed by The views and opinions expressed in mass criticism and protests with regards to the government’s decision not the article/publication are those of the to re-appoint Mr. Ghising as the MD of NEA. author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of Nepal Economic Forum. Neither the organisation nor Organizationally, NEF has continued to strive forward through these any person acting on their behalf may difficult times and has persistently worked to provide various information be held responsible for the use which and updates of the economic state of the nation through weekly may be made of the information con- updates, reports, blogs, and other means through its various social media tained therein. platforms. The special section of this nefport edition is ‘Road to Recovery: NEF Advisory Board: International Best Practices’ which highlights worthy international Arnico Panday practices that we as a nation could adopt as we chart our overall recovery Kul Chandra Gautam Mahendra Krishna Shrestha process from the pandemic. Shankar Sharma The NEF team would like to thank its well-wishers, followers, advisors, and partners for their continued support and particularly volunteers from beed for their valuable contributions. As always, we look forward to receiving your valuable comments and suggestions. Sujeev Shakya Chair, Nepal Economic Forum NEFPORT ISSUE 42 – SEPTEMBER 2020 7 GENERAL 1OVERVIEW 8 DOCKING NEPAL’S ECONOMIC ANALYSIS POLITICALPOLITICAL OVERVIEW This quarter has been a quagmire for Nepali politics. Additionally, the brunt of responding to COVID-19 has had profound effects in the political realm. The Government, which has been trying to respond to the crisis has received massive criticism for its inefficiency leading to the breakout of protests across the country. Moreover, the issuance of two ordinances by the government (which were eventually taken back) was seen by many as an attempt to consolidate power during a crisis. Nevertheless, the government was able to publish a new map of Nepal including the disputed territories of Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani, also amending the constitution to reflect the same, gaining nationwide support on the issue. Ruling NCP creates a task force the officials of constitutional bodies Devi Bhandari to prorogue the to bring an end to its fiasco:After - on 20 April. After much criticism, budget session of the Parliament. months of tensions inside the ruling the ordinances were taken back - Similarly, the recommendation was Nepal Communist Party (NCP), a however, leaders inside NCP started swiftly endorsed, as sessions of both task force led by general secretary demanding for Oli’s resignation2. the House of Representatives and the Bishnu Poudel and including six Since then, internal conflict in the National Assembly ended that very of the party’s standing committee party escalated to a great extent with day4. members was created to suggest ways party leaders from Prachanda’s and to resolve the ongoing conflicts. senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal’s The budget session, which ended Formally, the task force was assigned camp asking for Oli’s resignation both abruptly, still had some crucial the duty after the party’s secretariat from the position of Chairman of the bills pending – like those related endorsed it on 17 August. party and as the Prime Minister time to citizenship and the federal civil and again. service. Constitutional experts have The task force recommended a power- related this prorogation as an attempt sharing formula for the chairmen-duo, Nonetheless, the report prepared by to assist the prime minister in his with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli the task force doesn’t ask for Oli’s next move, which may be bringing running the government and Pushpa resignation as the party is now focusing an ordinance. However, members Kamal Dahal running the party as on convening its national convention of the Cabinet have argued that the its executive chairman. In addition, to seal the merger between the then prorogation was due to the lack of the task force also recommended a UML and the then Maoist party as business for the parliament. reshuffle of the Cabinet and changes scheduled by the Central Committee, in the provincial governments (being bringing an end to related disputes. This session, which lasted for a total run by NCP)1. The report will firstly be presented to of 58 days, was the sixth session of the the party’s Secretariat and then to the house. Also, this session had endorsed Internal conflict in the ruling party Standing Committee3. six other bills in addition to the had manifested when PM Oli decided budget and the second constitutional to bring out two ordinances – one Abrupt ending of Parliament’s amendment5. related to political party split and the budget session: The Cabinet on 2 other related to the appointment of July recommended President Bidya Appointment of the chief of NEFPORT ISSUE 42 – SEPTEMBER 2020 9 Investment Board Nepal criticized: India was already strained due to Ojha along with Joshi got expelled The government, via a cabinet the ongoing dispute over Lipulekh, for five years, Ram Bahadur Bista got meeting on 4 August, appointed Limpiyadhura and Kalapani. Despite expelled for three years10. The decision Sushil Bhatta as the chief executive the backlash, the PM later met with was taken by the party’s disciplinary officer of the Investment Board Nepal. a delegation from Madi municipality committee for various reasons such as The position had been vacant after of Chitwan that lies in a section of working against other party leaders. Maha Prasad Adhikari (the former Ayodhyapuri (where the PM claims While Govinda Raj Joshi was accused CEO) got appointed as the governor the real Ayodhya where Lord Ram of playing a role in NC senior leader of Nepal Rastra Bank. However, the was born is in) – asking them to Ram Chandra Paudel’s loss in the last decision faced massive criticism from build a plan to develop the area as a general election, Pushkar Nath Ojha the media, experts, and the general religious site with a grand temple8.