Master Innovation & Development Plan Technical Appendix TITLE: Mobility Technical Appendix A: Enabling Rapid Transit AUTHOR: Sidewalk Labs ABSTRACT The Mobility Technical Appendix provides further detailed information on the mobility and street design-related proposals in the Master Development and Implementation Plan, as well as information on their potential application in the Toronto context. Most relevant sections: Vol 1 (Quayside Plan, River District Concept Plan) / Vol 2 (Mobility) © 2019 Sidewalk Labs. The content, documents and materials contained herein are considered Sidewalk Proprietary Information. Appendix A: Extending transit along the waterfront Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2 Key Components in Brief ........................................................................................................................... 2 Forces That Shaped the Plan ................................................................................................... 2 1. Observations: the necessity of, challenges to, and opportunities for extending rapid transit along the Eastern Waterfront ...................................................................................................... 3 2. Furthering the objectives of existing policies and plans ............................................................... 7 3. Public and expert input ........................................................................................................................ 10 Alternatives considered ............................................................................................................................ 12 Sidewalk Labs’ Proposed Role ............................................................................................... 14 Components Deep Dive ......................................................................................................... 14 LRT services ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Accelerating LRT expansion through financing innovation ............................................................ 20 Bus services ................................................................................................................................................ 22 Accessibility considerations ................................................................................................................... 23 Next Steps ................................................................................................................................................... 23 Projected Outcomes ............................................................................................................. 24 Transit ridership & mode share .............................................................................................................. 24 Accessibility of economic opportunities ............................................................................................. 25 1 Summary A rapid transit backbone is crucial to creating a transit-oriented Eastern Waterfront, but there is neither dedicated funding for this major transit investment, nor the foreseeable prospect of any. Innovating on financing mechanisms, such as leveraging value capture, would help enable a phased expansion of light rail transit (LRT) along the Eastern Waterfront. Key Components in Brief Target improvement Component Description area(s) Connect the Eastern Light rail transit (LRT) A phased plan to embed LRT as the mobility backbone of Waterfront via rapid transit expansion Quayside and the Eastern Waterfront Catalyze delivery of new Value capture Given the lack of public-sector funding dedicated to the transit infrastructure financing mechanism Eastern Waterfront LRT, provide a new financing mechanism that allows government to raise debt for transit investment, serviced by future increases in nearby land value Connect the Eastern Bus services Anticipated bus service updates on the Eastern Waterfront via rapid transit Waterfront to best complement the LRT Forces That Shaped the Plan Sidewalk Lab’s active transportation plan is shaped by three forces: 1. Sidewalk Labs’ understanding of the necessity of a rapid transit backbone and its associated challenges and opportunities 2. Existing governmental plans and priorities 3. Input from experts and members of the public received in the public consultation and engagement process 2 1. Findings: the necessity of, challenges to, and opportunities for extending rapid transit along the Eastern Waterfront Quayside and the Eastern Waterfront cannot be developed without rapid transit. Numerous studies and approved plans have affirmed the importance of rapid transit for the Eastern Waterfront (Table 1). The area forms part of the eastern and western downtown "shoulder areas," where population and employment growth over the next few decades are poised to outpace most other parts of Toronto.1 Quayside is located approximately 700m (10-minute walk) from the nearest streetcar stop at King and Parliament and about 2 km (25-minute walk) from the nearest subway stop. Bus service in the area today, even before the significant population build-up and road congestion to come, is poor: the #72 (Pape), #75 (Parliament), #6 (Bay), and #65 (Sherbourne) routes are affected by congestion on their namesake streets, and this delay and unreliability cascades into the waterfront portion of the service. In 2018, on-time performance of these bus routes hovered around a mere 60% (Figure 1), far below TTC’s bus on-time performance target of 90%.2 The #72 Pape bus, today the only bus connection between Quayside and Union Station / the Financial district, exceeded the TTC’s peak-period crowding standard during the 2018 assessment.3 1 Waterfront Toronto. (n.d.). Attachment 1 – Waterfront Transit Network Plan Planning and Technical Background – toronto.ca. Retrieved from https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2018/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-110750.pdf, page 4. 2 Toronto Transit Commission. (2019, March). Toronto Transit Commission CEO’s Report – ttc.ca. (Rep.). Retrieved from https://www.ttc.ca/PdF/About_the_TTC/CEO_Report/CEO_Report_March_2019_Update.pdf. 3 Toronto Transit Commission - Chief Customer Officer. (2018, May 8). Capacity Improvements on Bus and Subway Services - ttc.ca. (Rep.). Retrieved from http://ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2018/May_8/Reports/7_Capacity_I mprovements_on_Bus_and_Subway_Services.pdf. 3 Figure 1. 2018 on-time performance of bus routes near Quayside Data source: TTC, On-time departure Report. Accessed March 9, 2019. Without rapid transit connections, Quayside and Villiers West residents, workers, and visitors will depend heavily on automobiles for trips to and from the neighbourhood. Congestion stemming from Quayside and Villiers West will add to the growing trip demand — and road congestion — from the already-completed and ongoing real estate developments along the Queens Quay East corridor. Stantec’s analysis of 2025 traffic conditions in the area shows significant degradation of traffic flow on Queens Quay during AM (Figure 2) and PM peaks (Figure 3), if there are no enhancements to mobility services and no changes to the proposed road network. 4 Figure 2. Projected intersection level of service near Quayside for AM peak, 2025, absence of any mobility enhancements (including rapid transit expansion) Figure 3. Projected intersection level of service near Quayside for PM peak, 2025, absence of any mobility enhancements (including rapid transit expansion) 5 This increase in congestion will have several deleterious outcomes. First, it will decrease the quality of life for all travelers, wasting time for everyone involved. Second, it will create deadweight loss: the difficulty of accessing Quayside and Villiers West in a timely and convenient fashion will discourage some travelers from making the trip at all, meaning that some jobs, residences, and commercial and leisure activity will go unfilled. This latter outcome will have a further effect on the pace and type of development for Quayside and Villiers West. Given the ongoing demand for living space in Toronto, it’s likely that condos will be built along the eastern waterfront, without rapid transit it is likely that significant office and retail space — generators of jobs and economic development — will not come to the neighbourhood. Without rapid transit, Quayside and Villiers West is likely to suffer a similar fate. That would be a tragedy not only for the district, but for the city as a whole: office development is crucial to Toronto’s TOcore plan, which aims to accommodate approximately 300,000 new jobs downtown by 2041, particularly in the east and west.4 Design enabling true LRT quality of service The new rapid transit infrastructure for the eastern waterfront should be true LRT rather than a traditional streetcar service. Streetcars in Toronto mostly operate within dense downtown urban grids, which feature close stops and mixed traffic. Taken together, these conditions result in service that is limited in speed and often features vehicle bunching. The fastest streetcar line in Toronto, #501L, has a scheduled speed of only 15.7 km / hour during weekday morning peaks, shortchanging rapid transit’s speed superiority over private vehicles in congested downtown corridors.5