Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Final Report Appendix 5: Settlement Infrastructure Tipping Points St Edmundsbury Borough Council Forest Heath District Council May 2009 Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Appendix 5: Settlement Infrastructure Tipping Points Contents Page Study Area Wide & Non-Locationally Specific Infrastructure..........................2 Bury St Edmunds.....................................................................................8 Haverhill...............................................................................................18 Barrow .................................................................................................27 Clare....................................................................................................34 Ixworth .................................................................................................40 Kedington.............................................................................................46 Risby ...................................................................................................52 Stanton................................................................................................58 Wickhambrook ......................................................................................64 Newmarket ...........................................................................................71 Mildenhall ............................................................................................78 Brandon ...............................................................................................85 Lakenheath ..........................................................................................92 Red Lodge............................................................................................99 Beck Row ...........................................................................................105 Kentford.............................................................................................111 Exning................................................................................................117 West Row...........................................................................................123 Data Sets for Existing Infrastructure......................................................129 Introduction This appendix outlines the ‘tipping points’ for various infrastructure types by settlement. The tipping point seeks to theoretically identify how much additional growth (quantified in terms of new dwellings) each settlement can accommodate before investment in certain types of infrastructure may be required. A scoring system has been used to represent the risk that growth will pose to each infrastructure theme in each settlement, taking account of the importance of that infrastructure type in ultimately underpinning growth. These are as follows: Current capacity that can ‘Required’ Infrastructure that may ‘Fundamental’ and ‘Essential’ Infrastructure - Current under provision/problems + accommodate anticipated growth. o need to be provided. - that will require provision as population grows and critical to housing growth Low risk posed by growth Low-medium risk posed by growth Medium risk posed by growth - High risk posed by growth P1/151 Appendix 5: Appraisal of Infrastructure Capacity and Tipping Points - St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath. Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal - + Current capacity that can o ‘Required’ Infrastructure that may - ‘Fundamental’ and ‘Essential’ Infrastructure Current under provision/problems accommodate anticipated growth. need to be provided. that will require provision as population grows - and critical to housing growth Study Area Wide & Non-Locationally Specific Infrastructure Existing Population: 167,800 Infrastructure Existing Provision in Tipping Point for Infrastructure Type Theme Provision Commentary & Rationale Type The Study Area (Capacity for New Homes) West Suffolk Hospital is the main Given the large catchment of West Suffolk Through our stakeholder consultation with Suffolk PCT hospital which serves most of the Hospital as the main hospital and only A&E we understand that West Suffolk Hospital is busy but Study Area, and therefore serves department within the Study Area, it is not can accommodate growth for the foreseeable future (to an area far beyond Bury St appropriate to assess infrastructure 2021), with only long term visions for the potential Edmunds. There is also a BMI capacity on a settlement basis. West upgrading of the hospital through a move. Despite this private hospital which again Suffolk Hospital’s wide catchment, covering it may be necessary to increase existing capacity serves a wide catchment. most of the West Suffolk sub-region, means across the study period in line with demand. Assuming Hospitals Newmarket Hospital provides it is only suitable to make a borough-wide no inflow of patients to the study area and a 2.8 bed + satellite services, although FHDC assumption on capacity. per 1,000 population provision, there is a theoretical identified that they understand capacity for the residents of up to 8,433 new homes, that it is reducing in size with People may also choose to visit although further efficiency savings in the health system much of the site not used. Addenbrookes Hospital in Cambridge, are likely to increase this tipping point significantly. although this is outside of Suffolk PCT’s Tipping Point: 11,500 – 18,000 New Homes (Study Health area. Area Wide) The study area has 1,097 Nursing Currently there are 6.5 nursing home places Although there is currently a reasonable provision in Home places across 38 Nursing per 1,000 population in the study area. This comparison to the national average, there will be an Homes. Almost 40% of these is compared with a national average of ongoing requirement for additional nursing homes places are in Bury St Edmunds. 6.72. As Nursing Homes are not necessarily places, particularly with the age profile of the study locationally specific (with many inhabitants area showing an ageing population. Nursing Homes Nursing seeking out better quality homes in areas are increasingly a ‘Fundamental’ and ‘Essential’ Homes away from their previous homes) and are Infrastructure, however, is one that is provided on a - provided on a commercial basis, it is commercial basis, and is therefore demand driven. inappropriate to assess this infrastructure This suggests that new provision will need to be on a settlement by settlement basis. proactively sought as the population increases. Tipping Point: 0 New Homes (Tipping Point Potentially Reached Across Study Area) P2/151 Appendix 5: Appraisal of Infrastructure Capacity and Tipping Points - St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath. Infrastructure and Environmental Capacity Appraisal Infrastructure Existing Provision in Tipping Point for Infrastructure Type Theme Provision Commentary & Rationale Type The Study Area (Capacity for New Homes) Policing is administered by Suffolk Suffolk Constabulary serves the whole of With current police service performance good for the Constabulary which consisted of Suffolk and therefore it is not appropriate to area there is a notional requirement to maintain the 1,371 police officers in 2007, make locationally specific capacity same level of provision, with new police officers and equivalent to 1 per 517 assumptions, particularly given the mobile equipment supporting the growth in population. It is population. nature of many police operations. The inherently difficult to identify a tipping point, but we Suffolk Local Policing Plan and annual assume that current physical infrastructure has report identified that the Suffolk capacity to accommodate new police officers Emergency Constabulary continues to be a high particularly given the Suffolk Police Estates Masterplan Police Services performing force and is meeting many of was designed to “improve and rationalise” estate + their performance targets. The Suffolk provision. New community scale policing facilities may Police Capital Programme for 2008/2009 be sought as parts of new developments or in existing identifies outlays on minor works and an community facilities, such as schools. estates strategy. The only capital estates improvements identified for the area are Tipping Point: 11,500 – 18,000 New Homes (Study improvements in Mildenhall and Newmarket Area Wide) to total £1m. Ambulance services are The ambulance service serves the most of With current ambulance service performance good for administered by the East of the East of England and therefore it is not the area there is a notional requirement to maintain the England Ambulance Service, which necessarily appropriate to make locationally same level of provision. It is inherently difficult to covers 7,500 square miles specific capacity assumptions, particularly identify a tipping point, but we assume that current totalling a population of given the mobile nature of many their physical infrastructure has capacity to accommodate approximately 5.5 million. The operations. However, it is important to additional housing growth, particularly given the very Ambulance service includes 273 frontline consider response times, and on a high existing ratio of only 1 ambulance station per + ambulances, 216 marked settlement specific basis we have identified 50,000 population and 1 ambulance per 20,100 response cars and 225 non- where there are ambulance stations. The population. emergency ambulances with