Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. September 26, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1 Global Growth Barometer 2 Economic Surprise Index 3 Investors Intelligence Sentiment 4 Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 5 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 6 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 7 AAII Sentiment 8 Volatility 9 Volume 10 Dow Theory 11 S&P 500 Moving Averages 12-13 S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 14 S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15 S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016 September 26, 2021 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Figure 1. 850 5000 S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES 9/24 4500 750 S&P 500 Index 4000 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index 650 3500 9/24 3000 550 2500 450 2000 1500 350 1000 yardeni.com 250 500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 2. -100 5000 S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS 300 9/18 700 9/24 4500 1100 4000 1500 S&P 500 Index 1900 3500 2300 2700 3000 3100 Initial Unemployment Claims 3500 (thousands, sa, four-week moving average, 2500 inverted scale) 3900 2000 4300 4700 1500 5100 5500 1000 5900 yardeni.com 6300 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s. Page 1 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Global Growth Barometer Figure 3. 5000 5000 YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500 4500 9/24 4500 4000 YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1215.5) 4000 S&P 500 Index (4455.5) 3500 3500 3000 3000 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 9/24 1000 1000 yardeni.com 500 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 4. 200 5000 US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 175 9/24 4500 S&P 500 Index Brent Crude Oil Price* 4000 150 (dollars per barrel) 3500 125 3000 100 2500 75 9/23 2000 50 1500 25 1000 yardeni.com 0 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 * Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 2 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Economic Surprise Index Figure 5. 1000 400 S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 350 800 300 600 250 200 400 150 9/24 100 200 50 0 0 9/24 -50 -200 -100 -400 -150 -200 -600 S&P 500 minus its 200 day-moving average -250 -300 -800 Economic Surprise Index -350 yardeni.com -1000 -400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup. Figure 6. 25 300 S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 250 23 S&P 500 Forward P/E* 200 21 9/16 150 19 100 17 50 0 15 9/24 -50 13 -100 Economic Surprise Index 11 -150 yardeni.com 9 -200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 * Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor’s, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup. Page 3 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Investors Intelligence Sentiment Figure 7. 6 6 INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS 5 5 Ratio Ratio Bull/Bear Sep 7 2.49 Ratio* Sep 14 2.26 4 Sep 21 2.11 4 3 3 2 9/21 2 1 1 0 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 80 80 75 Percentage Bulls Bears 75 Sep 7 52.6 21.1 70 Bulls Sep 14 50.0 22.1 70 65 Bears Sep 21 47.1 22.3 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 9/21 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 50 50 45 Percentage Correction 45 Correction Sep 7 26.3 40 Sep 14 27.9 40 Sep 21 30.6 35 35 30 9/21 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 yardeni.com 5 5 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: Investors Intelligence. Page 4 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Figure 8. 5200 5200 4700 4700 S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 9/24 4200 4200 3700 3.0 OR MORE* 3700 (ratio scale) 3200 3200 2700 2700 2200 2200 1700 1700 yardeni.com 1200 1200 700 700 200 200 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence. Figure 9. 41600 41600 36600 9/24 36600 31600 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 31600 3.0 OR MORE* 26600 (ratio scale) 26600 21600 21600 16600 16600 11600 11600 yardeni.com 6600 6600 1600 1600 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 5 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Figure 10. 5200 5200 4700 4700 9/24 4200 S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO 4200 3700 OF 1.0 OR LESS* 3700 3200 (ratio scale) 3200 2700 2700 2200 2200 1700 1700 yardeni.com 1200 1200 700 700 200 200 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence. Figure 11. 41600 41600 36600 9/24 36600 31600 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO 31600 26600 OF 1.0 OR LESS* 26600 (ratio scale) 21600 21600 16600 16600 11600 11600 yardeni.com 6600 6600 1600 1600 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 6 / September 26, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 Figure 12. 40 40 S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* 20 20 9/24 yardeni.com 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Figure 13. 40 40 S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* 20 20 9/24 yardeni.com 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.