UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Divided Brazil? An analysis of Brazilian’s political attitude A Thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Latin American Studies by Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira Committee in charge: Professor Scott Desposato, Chair Professor Seth Hill Professor Luis Martin-Cabrera 2019 Copyright Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira, 2019 All rights reserved. The Thesis of Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Chair University of California San Diego 2019 iii DEDICATION I want to dedicate this thesis to my family. My mom and dad – Lucia and Marcio´ – and my two siblings – Maiani and Iori. Their support was immeasurable and I hope I can repaid it someday. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page . iii Dedication . iv Table of Contents . v List of Figures . vii List of Tables . ix Acknowledgements . x Abstract of the Thesis . xi Chapter 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 Puzzles . 4 1.2 Our argument . 5 1.3 What we hope to accomplish . 7 1.4 Thesis structure . 8 Chapter 2 “Much more than 20 cents”: 2013 as a critical juncture . 10 2.1 Introduction . 10 2.2 Literature review . 12 2.3 Data and methods . 15 2.4 June 2013 . 16 2.4.1 Antecedents. 16 2.4.2 The critical juncture . 21 2.5 June 2013 as a formal model . 29 2.6 Legacy ............................................................. 33 Chapter 3 Polarization without poles? Evaluating Brazil’s political evolution (1995- 2018) .......................................................... 39 3.1 Introduction . 39 3.2 Polarization types . 41 3.3 Research design . 45 3.3.1 Data . 45 3.3.2 Methods . 45 3.3.3 Scale construction . 46 3.4 Ideological variance . 48 3.5 Partisanship variance . 57 3.5.1 The Brazilian weak party system . 57 3.5.2 PT, petismo and antipetismo ..................................... 61 3.6 Individualistic variance . 67 v 3.7 Conclusion . 74 Chapter 4 Conclusion . 76 4.1 Implications of our findings: Polarization, interest groups, and the political importance of inequality . 78 4.2 Future research. 80 Bibliography . 82 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1. Interviewees’ characteristics . 16 Figure 2.2. Evolution of the GDP growth in Brazil . 19 Figure 2.3. Number of protesters (in thousand) (by day) . 25 Figure 2.4. Number of cities with protesters (by day) . 25 Figure 2.5. Ideological self-identification . 27 Figure 2.6. Model for participation in the protests to individual i . 30 Figure 2.7. MPL and MBL Google search popularity . 35 Figure 2.8. Dilma’s net approval . 35 Figure 2.9. Cabec¸as do Congresso (DIAP’s list of the most relevant members in Congress) . 36 Figure 3.1. Mean of the left-right self-identification variable . 50 Figure 3.2. Evolution of divergent polarization using the left-right scale (1995-2018) . 51 Figure 3.3. Evolution of divergent polarization using the left-right scale (by presidency) 52 Figure 3.4. Evolution of individual divergent polarization on left-right scale (by year) 53 Figure 3.5. Variation of individual divergent polarization on left-right by presidency . 53 Figure 3.6. Evolution of the mean values for the variables . 54 Figure 3.7. Variation of individual divergent polarization on topics . 55 Figure 3.8. Number of effective parties in the Chamber of Deputies after the electoral result . 58 Figure 3.9. Distribution of parties in coalitions (by type of election and year) . 59 Figure 3.10. Party preference evolution in Brazil. 61 Figure 3.11. Party affiliation (1988-2002) . 62 Figure 3.12. Distribution of parties in coalitions with PT (by type of election and year) 64 Figure 3.13. Distribution of PT/petismo approval . 65 vii Figure 3.14. Distribution of PT/petismo approval to antipetismo and petismo . 67 Figure 3.15. Presidential net approval (positive - negative ratings) . 68 Figure 3.16. Evolution of PT’s presidential and federal deputy (by state) . 70 Figure 3.17. Distribution of the perception about Lula and Dilma . 71 Figure 3.18. Distribution of the perception about government performace . 73 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1. Party preference of the protesters and the Brazilian population . 26 Table 2.2. PT electoral results in the last three electoral cycles . 36 Table 3.1. Number of parties in each party families . 49 Table 3.2. OLS regression on left-right self-identification divergence. 52 Table 3.3. OLS regression on individual left-right self-identification divergence . 54 Table 3.4. Factor Analysis Result . 56 Table 3.5. OLS regression on party self-identification divergence . 60 Table 3.6. Petismo polarization evolution . 65 Table 3.7. Antipetismo sorting polarization . 66 Table 3.8. Petismo sorting polarization . 66 Table 3.9. Lulism divergent polarization. 71 Table 3.10. Antilulismo sorting polarization . 72 Table 3.11. Lulismo sorting polarization . 72 Table 3.12. Divergent polarization on government performance . 73 ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want acknowledge the ones that help me making this thesis possible. LAS and UCSD faculty and staff were fundamental..