A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in Europe Concept – Problems – Chances Harald Müller Giorgio Franceschini Aviv Melamud Daniel Müller Anna Péczeli Annette Schaper Table of Contents List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 2 2. Nuclear weapon-free zones: Concepts and experiences .................................................................... 6 2.1 Objectives of nuclear weapon-free zones .......................................................................................... 6 2.2 The value added of nuclear-weapon-free-zones compared to global regimes .................................. 8 2.3 Existing nuclear-weapon-free zones: Description and analysis of specifities .................................. 10 2.3.1 The Treaty of Tlatelolco .................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.2 Treaty of Rarotonga .......................................................................................................................... 12 2.3.3 The Treaty of Bangkok ...................................................................................................................... 13 2.3.4 The Treaty of Pelindaba .................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.5 The Treaty of Semipalatinsk.............................................................................................................. 14 2.3.6 Unilateral / Domestic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Status ........................................................................ 15 2.3.7 Measures to foster and institutionalize cooperation between existing zones ................................ 17 2.4 The project of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Europe – previous approaches ............................... 18 2.4.1 Approaches before the end of the Cold War .................................................................................... 18 2.4.2 Approaches after the end of the Cold War ....................................................................................... 20 3. Objectives of a nuclear weapon-free zone in Europe today ............................................................ 21 3.1 Security objectives in the narrow sense ........................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 Confidence-building in the regional neighbourhood ........................................................................ 23 3.1.2 Irreversibility and Stability ................................................................................................................ 24 3.1.3 Immunizing the region against the consequences of a nuclear confrontation ................................ 24 3.2 Political-symbolic objectives ............................................................................................................. 25 3.2.1 Strengthening the non-proliferation regime .................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Fostering nuclear disarmament ........................................................................................................ 26 3.2.3 Helping delegitimize nuclear weapons ............................................................................................. 27 3.2.4 Provoking a regional public debate .................................................................................................. 29 3.3 Adapting defence policies to the political situation in Europe ......................................................... 31 4. Options for negotiations ................................................................................................................... 31 4.1 Experiences from other regions ........................................................................................................ 31 4.1.1 Latin America .................................................................................................................................... 31 4.1.2 South Pacific ...................................................................................................................................... 33 4.1.3 Southeast Asia ................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1.4 Africa ................................................................................................................................................. 37 4.1.5 Central Asia ....................................................................................................................................... 39 4.1.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Options for negotiation in Europe .................................................................................................... 40 4.2.1 The conventional way ....................................................................................................................... 40 4.2.2 The Mongolian way ........................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.3 Closed negotiation of like-minded countries .................................................................................... 42 4.2.4 Ottawa way ....................................................................................................................................... 43 4.2.5 Comparative Evaluation .................................................................................................................... 44 4.2.6 Involvement of the UN and the IAEA ................................................................................................ 44 4.2.7 Consultations with NWS ................................................................................................................... 45 5. Content of a nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty in Europe................................................................ 46 5.1 Geographical scope and entry into force.......................................................................................... 46 5.1.1 The “leaving it open” approach ........................................................................................................ 46 5.1.2 The OSCE confidence-building measures approach: Complex and revolutionary ........................... 48 5.1.3 Defining the minimum group of initial zone members ..................................................................... 49 5.1.4 The patchwork problem.................................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Undertakings by the parties .............................................................................................................. 52 5.2.1 Basic obligations without opting out ................................................................................................ 52 5.2.2 Non-essential obligations with opting out ........................................................................................ 53 5.2.3 Non-essential but useful obligations ................................................................................................ 54 5.2.4 Article for accession of nuclear weapon states and NATO states with a previous nuclear role ...... 55 5.3 Verification ........................................................................................................................................ 56 5.3.1 Full-scope IAEA safeguards ............................................................................................................... 56 5.3.2 The Additional Protocol .................................................................................................................... 57 5.3.3 Integrated Safeguards and the State Level Approach ...................................................................... 58 5.3.4 Verification of the absence of deployment, transport, and control of warheads ............................ 59 5.3.5 Societal Verification .......................................................................................................................... 59 5.3.6 Consultation mechanisms ................................................................................................................. 60 5.4 Formal provisions .............................................................................................................................. 60 5.4.1 Organization ...................................................................................................................................... 60 5.4.2 Depositary ......................................................................................................................................... 60 5.4.3 Amendments ..................................................................................................................................... 61 5.4.4 Withdrawal ....................................................................................................................................... 61 5.5 Protocols for non-members .............................................................................................................