WT/DS435/R/Suppl.1, WT/DS441/R/Suppl.1 WT/DS458/R/Suppl.1, WT/DS467/R/Suppl.1 28 June 2018 (18-4052) Page: 1/150 Original: English AUSTRALIA – CERTAIN MEASURES CONCERNING TRADEMARKS, GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATIONS AND OTHER PLAIN PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS APPLICABLE TO TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND PACKAGING REPORTS OF THE PANELS Appendices SCI redacted, as indicated [[***]] This supplement contains Appendices A to E to the Reports of the Panels to be found in document WT/DS435/R, WT/DS441/R, WT/DS458/R, WT/DS467/R. _______________ WT/DS435/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS441/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS458/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS467/R/Suppl.1 - 3 - Table of Contents APPENDIX A: POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON NON-BEHAVIOURAL OUTCOMES OF THE TPP MEASURES ............................................................................... A-1 1 EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE APPEAL OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES .................................................................................. A-2 2 EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GHWS SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES .......................................................................................... A-7 3 EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE ABILITY OF TOBACCO PACKAGING TO MISLEAD CONSUMERS ABOUT THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF SMOKING SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ........................................................................................ A-16 4 OVERALL CONCLUSION ON POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON NON-BEHAVIOURAL OUTCOMES ...................................................................................... A-18 APPENDIX B: EVIDENCE ON QUITTING-RELATED OUTCOMES AND OTHER DISTAL OUTCOMES SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES .............................. B-1 1 EVIDENCE RELATING TO QUITTING-RELATED COGNITIONS SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES .......................................................................................... B-2 2 EVIDENCE RELATING TO PACK CONCEALMENT AND MICRO-INDICATORS OF CONCERN SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ....................................................... B-9 3 EVIDENCE RELATING TO QUIT ATTEMPTS SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES .............................................................................................................. B-17 4 EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE PREDICTIVE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PROXIMAL OUTCOMES AND DISTAL OUTCOMES SINCE THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES (NATIONAL TOBACCO PLAIN PACKAGING TRACKING SURVEY) ...................... B-22 5 OVERALL CONCLUSION ON POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON QUITTING-RELATED OUTCOMES AND OTHER DISTAL OUTCOMES ........................................ B-25 APPENDIX C: EVIDENCE ON SMOKING PREVALENCE FOLLOWING THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ............................................................................. C-1 1 WHETHER SMOKING PREVALENCE DECREASED FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TPP MEASURES ......................................................................................................... C-2 2 WHETHER THE REDUCTION OF SMOKING PREVALENCE ACCELERATED FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TPP MEASURES (ROY MORGAN SINGLE SOURCE) .................. C-18 3 WHETHER THE TPP MEASURES CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDUCTION IN SMOKING PREVALENCE ................................................................................................................. C-22 4 OVERALL CONCLUSION ON POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON SMOKING PREVALENCE ................................................................................................................. C-38 APPENDIX D: EVIDENCE RELATING TO TOBACCO PRODUCT SALES AND CONSUMPTION FOLLOWING THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ............. D-1 1 WHETHER CIGARETTE SALES VOLUMES DECREASED FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TPP MEASURES .......................................................................... D-2 2 WHETHER THE REDUCTION OF CIGARETTE SALES VOLUMES ACCELERATED AFTER THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ............................................................... D-13 3 WHETHER THE TPP MEASURES CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDUCTION IN CIGARETTE SALES VOLUMES AND CONSUMPTION .............................................................................. D-20 4 EVIDENCE RELATING TO THE EVOLUTION OF IMPORTS OF CIGARS .................................. D-36 5 OVERALL CONCLUSION ON POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON TOBACCO PRODUCT SALES VOLUMES ............................................................................................. D-39 WT/DS435/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS441/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS458/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS467/R/Suppl.1 - 4 - APPENDIX E: POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON DOWNWARD SUBSTITUTION IN THE CIGARETTE MARKET ................................................................. E-1 1 WHETHER DOWNWARD SUBSTITUTION IN CIGARETTES INCREASED FOLLOWING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TPP MEASURES .......................................................................... E-2 2 WHETHER DOWNWARD SUBSTITUTION IN CIGARETTES ACCELERATED AFTER THE ENTRY INTO FORCE OF THE TPP MEASURES ........................................................................ E-8 3 WHETHER THE TPP MEASURES CONTRIBUTED TO DOWNWARD SUBSTITUTION IN CIGARETTES ................................................................................................................. E-15 4 OVERALL CONCLUSION ON POST-IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENCE ON DOWNWARD SUBSTITUTION IN CIGARETTES ....................................................................................... E-19 WT/DS435/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS441/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS458/R/Suppl.1 • WT/DS467/R/Suppl.1 - 5 - LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure B.1: Event Study of Calls to the Quitline B-20 Figure C.1: Smoking Prevalence Based on RMSS Data C-3 Figure C.2: Smoking Prevalence Based on OECD Dataset on Non-Medical Determinants in Australia and C-4 Selected OECD Countries Figure C.3: Smoking Prevalence Based on OECD Dataset on Non-Medical Determinants in Australia and C-5 Selected European Countries Figure C.4: Smoking Prevalence Based on NDSHS Data C-6 Figure C.5: Youth Smoking Prevalence Based on NDSHS Data C-6 Figure C.6: Youth Smoking Prevalence with Confidence Interval Based on NDSHS Data C-7 Figure C.7: Smoking Prevalence Based on NHS Data C-8 Figure C.8: Youth Smoking Prevalence Based on ASSAD Data C-9 Figure C.9: Smoking Behaviour Based on Roy Morgan Research Data C-10 Figure C.10: New South Wales Consumer Smoking Behaviour Based on CITTS Data C-11 Figure C.11: Smoking Prevalence in New South Wales Based on CINSW Survey Data C-12 Figure C.12: Smoking Prevalence Among Youth in New South Wales Based on SSHBS Data C-13 Figure C.13: Smoking Prevalence in South Australia Based on SAHOS Data C-14 Figure C.14: Smoking Prevalence in South Australia Based on South Australia Survey Data C-14 Figure C.15: Smoking Prevalence in Victoria Based on VSHS Data C-15 Figure C.16: Smoking Prevalence in Victoria Based on NDSHS Data C-16 Figure C.17: Smoking Prevalence in Australia C-17 Figure C.18: Smoking Prevalence and Linear Trend C-19 Figure C.19: Smoking Prevalence and Pre- and Post-TPP Trends C-21 Figure C.20: Tobacco Price and Linear Trend C-34 Figure D.1: Monthly Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-3 Figure D.2: Annual Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-4 Figure D.3: Average Monthly Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-5 Figure D.4: Per Capita Monthly Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-6 Figure D.5: Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on Nielsen Data D-7 Figure D.6: Per Capita Monthly Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on Aztec Scanner Data D-8 Figure D.7: Quarterly Cigarette Sales Volume based on IMS/EOS, Nielsen and Aztec Data D-9 Figure D.8: Household Expenditure on Tobacco and Cigarettes based on ABS Data D-10 Figure D.9: Monthly Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS, Nielsen and Aztec Data D-11 Figure D.10: Indexes of Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS, Nielsen and Aztec Data D-12 Figure D.11: Per Capita Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS, Nielsen and Aztec Data D-13 Figure D.12: Event Study of Per Capita Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-17 Figure D.13: Alternative Event Study of Per Capita Cigarette Sales Volumes Based on IMS/EOS Data D-19 Figure D.14: Cigarette Sales Volumes Pre- and Post-TPP Trends D-20 Figure E.1: Monthly Sales Volumes of Higher- and Low-Priced Sticks Based on IMS/EOS Data E-2 Figure E.2: Monthly Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks and Ratio of Average Higher to E-3 Low Prices Based on IMS/EOS Data Figure E.3: Weekly Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks Based on Aztec Data E-4 Figure E.4: Monthly Brand Preference for Higher-Priced versus Low-Priced Brands and Ratio of Average E-5 Higher to Low Prices Based on RMSS Data Figure E.5: Graphical Assessment of Monthly Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks E-6 Based on IMS/EOS and Aztec Data Figure E.6: Graphical Assessment of Brand Preference Based on RMSS Data E-7 Figure E.7: Graphical Assessment of Difference in Brand Preference Based on RMSS Data E-7 Figure E.8: Trend Assessment of Monthly Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks and Ratio E-8 of Average Higher to Low Prices Based on IMS/EOS Data Figure E.9: Event Study on Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks Based on IMS/EOS E-9 Data Figure E.10: Event Study on Sales Volumes Ratio of Higher- to Low-Priced Sticks Based on Aztec Data E-10 Figure E.11: Monthly Preference for Higher-Priced versus Low-Priced Brands