Margaret C. Harrell Harry J. Thie Peter Schirmer Kevin Brancato Aligning the Stars Improvements to General and Flag Officer Management Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited R National Defense Research Institute The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Aligning the stars : improvements to general and flag officer management / Margaret C. Harrell ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1712.” ISBN 0-8330-3501-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Armed Forces—Officers. 2. Generals—United States. 3. Admirals—United States. 4. United States—Armed Forces—Personnel management. I. Harrell, Margaret C. UB412.A4 A795 2004 355.3'31'0973—dc22 2003024739 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE Career patterns of general and flag officers (G/FOs) are of interest to Congress, the Secretary of Defense, and the military services. For example, the House and Senate conferees for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1997 stated in their report that “the current general and flag officer selection, assignment, and develop- ment process may not effectively contribute to the preparation of those officers for increasing levels of responsibility and maximum performance efficiency at each level of assignment.” Among specific stated concerns were the tempo with which general and flag officers are rotated through important positions; the effect of this tempo both on the effective- ness of individual officers in each position to which they are assigned and on the overall value these officers add in each position to which they are assigned; and the consequences of requiring general and flag offices to retire upon completion of 35 years of service.1 The Secretary of Defense has expressed similar concerns: I kept noticing that people that were in their jobs 6, 8, 10, 12, 13, 15 months. And general officers, flags. I know that if you had a need to punch a ticket to get your schooling, your training, to get your joint pieces under Goldwater/Nichols, there is tremendous pressure to do that. I also know that it’s difficult for people to really learn a job ______________ 1National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1997; Conference Report to Accompany H.R. 3230 (1996). iii iv Aligning the Stars and then do it well enough and know what their mistakes were because you have to be around long enough to see some of it.2 In the military services, the concern is to maintain promotion oppor- tunity throughout a hierarchy of 10 grades through which officers can flow. This promotion flow, especially for the middle manage- ment grades of O-4 through O-6, was carefully crafted as part of the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980. Whether or not they are the best flow rates can be argued, but expectations have been set for about 20 years based on them. The concern is that longer service in a particular grade will clog promotion flow at lower grades. What are the appropriate practices for assigning and developing G/FOs? What are the effects of changing them? This report addresses these questions by examining empirically current patterns of G/FOs, by examining how private-sector executives are assigned and devel- oped, by reviewing the literature of career management and execu- tive development, and by analyzing how changed assignment and development practices might affect promotion probability and ser- vice tenure. This report should interest the manpower and personnel policy and analytical communities as well as military officers and defense poli- cymakers. This research project was sponsored by the Director for Officer and Enlisted Personnel Management in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Personnel and Readiness). The research was conducted for the Office of the Secretary of Defense within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. The principal investigators are Harry Thie and Margaret Harrell. Comments are welcome and may be addressed to [email protected] or [email protected]. For more infor- mation on the Forces and Resources Policy Center, contact Director Susan Everingham, [email protected], 310-393-0411, extension 7654. ______________ 2Donald Rumsfeld, as quoted in the Washington Post, July 22, 2001. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Tables.......................................... xiii Summary ....................................... xv Acknowledgments................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................... xxiii Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 Background .................................. 1 Objective .................................... 2 Data Sources for the Baseline ..................... 2 Organization of This Report ....................... 3 Chapter Two WHAT DO GENERAL AND FLAG OFFICER CAREERS LOOK LIKE IN THE CURRENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM? ........................ 5 Multiple Career Patterns ......................... 5 Senior Officers Flow Rapidly Through the System ....... 9 Summary .................................... 13 Chapter Three A FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE AND MODEL THE GENERAL AND FLAG OFFICER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ......................... 15 Cumulative Learning Through Work Experience ....... 15 v vi Aligning the Stars Career Structure ............................... 17 Learning and Action on the Job .................... 19 Applying the Developing Job–Using Job Framework ..... 20 Chapter Four CURRENT GENERAL AND FLAG OFFICER DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEVELOPING JOB– USING JOB FRAMEWORK ........................ 23 An Empirical Method for Identifying Developing Jobs and Using Jobs ................................ 24 The Length of Developing Job and Using Job Assignments ........................... 28 The Developing–Using Framework Is the Basis for Modeling Policy Alternatives .................. 30 Chapter Five A REVISED MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: EFFECT ON GENERAL AND FLAG OFFICER DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTION ................ 31 Models Supported the Analysis .................... 32 Analytical Steps to Determine the Optimum Career Model .............................. 33 Identifying Developing and Using Positions, by Grade ................................. 33 Modeling and Analysis Suggest a New Career Model .... 35 Modeled Outcomes of the New Career Model ......... 36 Promotion Throughput ........................ 36 Promotion Probability ......................... 38 Time in Grade at Retirement .................... 41 Average Career Length at Retirement .............. 44 Average Time in Job ........................... 46 Summary of Modeled Outcomes of the New Career Model .............................. 49 Chapter Six REACTIONS TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND PROPOSED SYSTEM ............................ 51 Interviews with General and Flag Officers ............ 51 Addressing Concerns About Management Changes ..... 52 Retention .................................. 52 Flexibility .................................. 53 Compensation ............................... 54 Contents vii Additional Observations from the Interviews .......... 54 Chapter Seven CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......... 57 Conclusions .................................. 57 Recommendations ............................. 60 Appendix A. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF CURRENT MANAGEMENT OF GENERAL AND FLAG OFFICERS ................ 63 B. MODELED POLICY EXCURSIONS ................ 85 C. MODELING RESULTS IN TABULAR FORM ......... 87 D. MODELING RESULTS IN “FLOW” FORM .......... 93 E. COMPENSATION OBSERVATIONS ............... 101 References ...................................... 105 FIGURES 2.1. Multiple Career Patterns Exist for Officers ......... 6 2.2. Average Number of Years Before Next Promotion .... 9 2.3. Average Number of Assignments at Retirement ..... 10 2.4. Length of General and Flag Officer Assignments ..... 11 2.5. Average Time in Service at Retirement ............ 11 2.6. Average Time in Service Before Promotion