THE 22 DREW PER PA S Balancing on the Pivot How China’s Rise and Oshore Balancing Aect Japan’s and India’s Roles as Balancers in the Twenty-First Century Reginald J. McClam Lieutenant Colonel, USMC Air University Steven L. Kwast, Lieutenant General, Commander and President School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Thomas D. McCarthy, Colonel, Commandant and Dean AIR UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIR AND SPACE STUDIES Balancing on the Pivot How China’s Rise and Offshore Balancing Affect Japan’s and India’s Roles as Balancers in the Twenty-First Century Reginald J. McClam Lieutenant Colonel, USMC Drew Paper No. 22 Air University Press Air Force Research Institute Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama Project Editor Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data James S. Howard McClam, Reginald J., 1974– Copy Editor Balancing on the pivot : how China’s rise and offshore Sandi Davis balancing affect Japan’s and India’s roles as balancers in the Cover Art, Book Design, and Illustrations twenty-first century / Reginald J. McClam. Daniel Armstrong pages cm. — (Drew paper, ISSN 1941-3785 ; No. 22) Includes bibliographical references. Composition and Prepress Production ISBN 978-1-58566-257-9 Vivian D. O’Neal 1. East Asia—Strategic aspects. 2. South Asia—Strategic Print Preparation and Distribution aspects. 3. Security, International—East Asia. 4. Security, Diane Clark International—South Asia. 5. China—Foreign relations—Japan. 6. Japan—Foreign relations—China. 7. China—Foreign relations—India. 8. India—Foreign relations—China. 9. Balance of power. I. Title. JZ1720.M337 2015 AIR FORCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE 355'.03305—dc23 2015028813 AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS Director and Publisher Published by Air University Press in March 2016 Allen G. Peck Editor in Chief Oreste M. Johnson Managing Editor Dr. Ernest Allan Rockwell Design and Production Manager Cheryl King Air University Press Disclaimer 155 N. Twining St., Bldg. 693 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6026 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied [email protected] within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily repre- sent the official policy or position of the organizations with which http://aupress.au.af.mil/ they are associated or the views of the Air Force Research Insti- http://afri.au.af.mil/ tute, Air University, United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. This publication is cleared for public release and unlimited distribution. AFRI This Drew Paper and others in the series are available electronically Air Force Research Institute at the AU Press website: http://aupress.au.af.mil. ii The Drew Papers The Drew Papers are award-winning master’s theses selected for publica- tion by the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS), Maxwell AFB, Alabama. This series of papers commemorates the distinguished career of Col Dennis “Denny” Drew, USAF, retired. In 30 years at Air University, Colonel Drew served on the Air Command and Staff College faculty, directed the Airpower Research Institute, and served as dean, associate dean, and pro- fessor of military strategy at SAASS. Colonel Drew is one of the Air Force’s most extensively published authors and an international speaker in high de- mand. He has lectured to over 100,000 students at Air University as well as to foreign military audiences. In 1985 he received the Muir S. Fairchild Award for outstanding contributions to Air University. In 2003 Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands made him a Knight in the Order of Orange-Nassau for his con- tributions to education in the Royal Netherlands Air Forcee. The Drew Papers are dedicated to promoting the understanding of air- and space-power theory and application. These studies are published by the Air University Press and broadly distributed throughout the US Air Force, the Department of Defense, and other governmental organizations, as well as to leading scholars, selected institutions of higher learning, public-policy insti- tutes, and the media. iii Please send inquiries or comments to Commandant and Dean School of Advanced Air and Space Studies 125 Chennault Circle Maxwell AFB, AL 36112 Tel: (334) 953-5155 DSN: 493-5155 [email protected] iv Contents About the Author vii Acknowledgments ix Abstract xi 1 Getting “Balance” Back into the Lexicon of Grand Strategy 1 Offshore Balancing 3 China’s Patterns of Behavior 8 China’s Military Capability 10 China’s Economic Capacity 11 Background 13 Methodology 13 Statement of the Research Question and Its Significance 15 2 Pax Britannica: Historical Perspective of Offshore Balancing 19 Historical Background 19 Regional Patterns of Behavior 21 Global Patterns of Behavior 24 British Military Capabilities 28 British Economic Capacity 30 3 Land of the Rising Sun: Adjusting the Asia Balance Using Japan 35 Background 35 Regional Patterns of Behavior 38 Japan and China 38 Japan and North Korea 39 Global Patterns of Behavior 41 Peacekeeping Operations 41 Japan’s Lessons from the Gulf War 42 Japan and the United States 42 Japan as a Nuclear State? 45 Japanese Military Capability 46 Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force 48 Japan Air Self-Defense Force 49 Japan Ground Self-Defense Force 50 Japanese Economic Capacity 50 v CONTENTS 4 A Nuclear Republic: Maintaining the Asia Balance Using India 57 Background 57 India’s Regional Patterns of Behavior 60 India and Pakistan 61 India and the Indian Ocean 63 India’s Global Patterns of Behavior 64 India and China 65 India and the United States 66 A Nuclear India 67 India’s Military Capability 68 The Indian Army 69 The Indian Navy 70 The Indian Air Force 72 India’s Economic Capacity 73 5 The Balancer on the Pivot as a Way Forward 79 Background 79 Analytical Review of Case Studies 80 Pax Britannica 80 Japan 81 India 81 Implications 82 Policy Recommendation 83 Glossary 85 Bibliography 87 vi About the Author Lt Col Reginald J. McClam is currently the commanding officer, 3d Bat- talion, 8th Marines, 2d Marine Division. He was commissioned through Of- ficer Candidate School in 1998. He is a career infantry officer with multiple combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. His assignments include various infan- try command and staff duty positions. He holds a bachelor’s degree in crimi- nal justice from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke, a master of arts degree in management and leadership from Webster University, and a master of philosophy in military strategy from the School of Advanced Air and Space studies. He is a graduate of the Nonresident Amphibious Warfare School, the Expeditionary Warfare Staff Planning Course, the Infantry Mor- tar Platoon Leaders Course, the Advanced Infantry Officer Course, and the Army Command and General Staff College. He was previously the US Marine Corps aide to the president of the United States and the Marine Air Ground Task Force Planner for United States Marine Corps Central Command. vii Acknowledgments Special thanks go to my thesis advisor, Col Mark Yeisley, for his steadfast support and guidance throughout this project. His patience and subject mat- ter expertise provided me with the vision to see this through. I am forever grateful for his mentorship and experience. I would also like to thank my reader, Dr. James Forsyth, for his remarkable inputs and direction. He pro- vided the framework for this project and sparked my intellectual curiosity to take on this research project. Considerable advice also came from Dr. Stephen Wright. My appreciation extends to the rest of the faculty and staff at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies for their efforts in providing a top- notch education that will serve me in the years ahead. My fellow students helped develop my critical thinking and opened the aperture of my mind to the range of solutions that exists to solve the complex problems the nation, the US Marine Corps, and I will face in the future. Most importantly, I am grateful for the love and support from my wife and children. I am forever in their debt. Their patience and understanding of the early mornings and late nights that I spent reading, writing, and thinking were essential to completing this project and the academic school year. ix Abstract The United States has used primacy as its grand strategy for some time now. While this strategy has ensured US hegemony, it has also fiscally drained American power and left the United States with a poor global standing. As such, the United States should rethink its grand strategy in order to maintain its relative position in the twenty-first century. The United States is poised to pivot eastward to meet the demands of China as a rising challenger. The ques- tion I raise here is, how viable would an alternative grand strategy in Asia be? There is considerable enthusiasm in some corners of the policy-making world for the United States to return to a balancing strategy in Asia. Formerly known as offshore balancing, the strategy aims to conserve American power as it deals with the challenges of a rising China. One important, albeit overlooked, element of offshore balancing is, who plays the role of the balancer? This the- sis seeks to answer that question. xi Chapter 1 Getting “Balance” Back into the Lexicon of Grand Strategy In a world where great states confront overstretch, they must make hard choices. Thus, in the end, grand strategy is more often than not about the ability to adjust to the reality that resources, will, and interest inevitably find themselves out of balance in some areas. Strategy is about balancing risk. But above all, it is about insuring that the balance is right in those areas that matter most. And in times of great stress, it is also about adapting national focus on the international environment to those areas of overstretch that threaten the polity to the greatest extent.