STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE International Institute for Environmental Technology and Management The Challenge of Sustainable Development in a Greenhouse World: Some Visions of the Future Report of a Policy Exercise held in Bad Bleiberg, Austria September 2-7,1990 Jill Jäger Stockholm Environment Institute Nicholas Sonntag, David Bernard and Werner Kurz ESSA Ltd., Vancouver, B.C., Canada Published by the ISBN: 91 88116 24 7 Stockholm Environment Institute The Challenge of Sustainable Development in a Greenhouse World? Some Visions of the Future Report of a Policy Exercise held in Bad Bleiberg, Austria September 2-7,1990 Jill Jäger Stockholm Environment Institute Nicholas Sonntag, David Bernard and Werner Kurz ESSA Ltd., Vancouver, B.C., Canada MASTER Published by the Stockholm Environment Institute 1991 _ ft m wwnu mm nim MUS ramna Stockholm Environment Institute Box 2142 S-103 14 Stockholm Sweden Arno Rosemarin PhD Information Manager Stockholm Environment Institute 9 Copyright 1991 by the Stockholm Environment Institute No part of this reMrt may be reproduced in any form by photostat, microfilm, or any other means, without '•• » i • * written permission from the publisher. ISBN: »1-8114.24-7 The Challenge of Sustainable Development in a Greenhouse World: Some Visions of the Future Report of a Policy Exercise held in Bad Bleiberg, Austria September 2-7, 1990 by Jill Jäger, Stockholm Environment Institute Nicholas Sonntag, David Bernard and Werner Kurz, ESSA Ltd. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements iv 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Where and When was the "Policy Exercise" held? 1 1.3 Who Participated? 1 1.4 The Objectives of the "Policy Exercise" 2 1.5 A Short Guide to the Report 2 1.6 References 2 2.0 What is a "Policy Exercise"? 3 2.1 History of Policy Exercises 3 2.2 Description of the Policy Exercise Process 3 2.3 Our Application of the PE Process to Climate Change 4 2.4 Geographic Focus 6 2.5 Framework 6 2.6 Scenario Endpoints 7 2.7 References 7 3.0 Writing "Future Histories" 8 3.1 Introduction 8 3.2 The Prescribed Endpoints (Round 1) 8 3.3 The Chosen Endpoints (Round 2) 10 3.4 Summaries of the "Future Histories" 10 4.0 What do the "Histories" Tell Us? 18 5.0 What Did We Leam About the Process? 21 6.0 Where Could We Go From Here? 22 Appendix I 24 Appendix 11 The Complete "Future Histories" ; ; 27 Appendix III 76 Acknowledgements We would first like to acknowledge the extraordinary contributions of the participants who attended this Policy Exercise. Clearly when they arrived they did not fully comprehend what the facilitators had in store for them and although there were some rumblings of rebellion during the first 24 hours, the group ultimately developed a solidarity of purpose and moved forward with overwhelming energy and enthusiasm. The organizers appreciate their patience and scholarly approach to thechallenge. Duringthe final days ofthe Policy Exercise the preparation of the future histories required certain individuals (Jon Tinker, John McNeill, Scott Hajost and Bill Clark) to take overall responsibility for documenting the future histories and then presenting them to the other participants. This involved many hours of creative writing and editing through the night. Despite near exhaustion their commitment, and possibly more importantly, their humour, remained and the exercise reached an entertaining and educational conclusion. We owe them many thanks. As with any exercise of this kind, the venue can make or break the ultimate success. In this case the Bleibergerhof in Bad Bleiberg, Austria, was ideal. It provided us all with a very friendly setting in a beautiful part of Austria, which, in combination with a very friendly and helpful staff, and wonderful dining, ensured that we were able to stay relatively energetic and healthy, and thus better able to meet our objectives. We owe special thanks to Herr and Frau Siissenbacher, the proprietors ofthe Bleibergerhof, and their staff for a wonderful stay in their little piece of paradise. As one might expect, holding such an exercise requires strong moral and financial support to ensure success. We would like to thank the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) for their financial support and faith in the Policy Exercise approach. Three important planning meetings were held: in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (August 1989); Zurich, Switzerland (December 1989); and Bad Bleiberg, Austria (June 1990). The participants at these meetings provided invaluable guidance. We would specifically like to thank Gordon Goodman, until recently the Executive Director of SEI, for his enthusiastic support of the project. Another strong vote of thanks and considerable credit for the success ofthe exercise are due to Bill Clark, who was with us at all crossroads in the design ofthe exercise. We have no hesitation in admitting that without his input the exercise would not have been nearly as successful. Many people have been involved in the preparation, implementation and documentation of the exercise. Jill Jäger was the overall coordinator for SEI and took responsibility for selecting and inviting participants, organizing the logistics, and the preparation ofthe final report. Nicholas Sonntag, David Bernard and Wemer Kurz of ESSA Environmental and Social Systems Analysts Ltd. took responsibility for the design and facilitation ofthe policy exercise and preparation of the briefing materials. Finally, we are most grateful to Mary Stanojevic for providing capable and caring administrative assistance at the exercise. IV JillJäger et al. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background A tangible origin of this initiative, from the perspective of the Stockholm Environment Institute, was the 1985 Conference held in Villach, Austria, on the Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts. At this international conference it was concluded that scientists and policy-makers should begin an active collaboration on climate change issues. It was also suggested that "policy exercises" could help the research community to team which answers or tools are likely to be most needed by policy-makers across a wide range of future histories for the greenhouse gas issue (Clark, 1985). In addition, the 1985 Villach Conference led to the establishment of the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (WMO, 1986). The implications of these results of the 1985 Conference have been described in somewhat more detail by Jäger (1990). Following up on the 1985 conference, international workshops were held in 1987 in Villach and Bellagio (Jäger, 1988). These workshops showed, inter alia, that answers to a number of specific questions would be extremely valuable in providing a finner basis for policy development in response to climatic change. Three Working Groups were established to look at these questions. The work of the groups was coordinated by the Beijer Institute, Stockholm, until June 1989 and subsequently by the Stockholm Environment Institute. The results of these Working Groups were published in October 1990'. As the Working Groups began their work, it was clear that there would be a need to synthesize their results to make them useful for the development of policy in response to climatic change. These groups were not alone in looking at issues related to the question of global warming. During the time that the Working Groups were completing their analyses, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC)andnumerousother studiesorganizedbynational, international and non-governmental groups have also produced a vast amount of technical, scientific and policy-related information. One of the main reasons for holding this "policy exercise" in 1990 was to attempt synthesize all of this information and look at the implications for the solution of various global problems. The primary goal of the meeting held in September 1990 was, therefore, to devise and apply methods for synthesizing the technical information now available on climatic change in a form useful for the formulation of policy. 1.2 Where and When was the "Policy Exercise" held? The exercise washeld from September 3 to 71990 in Bad Bleiberg, near Villach, in Austria. In fact the proceedings began with a dinner on September 2 at which all the participants introduced themselves. This not only began the process of "breaking the ice" but allowed more time for substantive discussions on the first day of the meeting. 1.3 Who Participated? The discussions at the planning meetings led to the conclusion that about thirty participants would be invited to the exercise and that these participants should be drawn from a wide variety of expertise and national origin. As the list of participants given in Appendix I shows, this variety vas achieved to a large extent. All of the participants were acting in their own capacity and not as representatives of their government or organization. As with all meetings there were last- minute cancellations that left slight imbalances. The only obvious major imbalance arose because, Climate Change Policy Exercise of the four women originally invited, none were able to attend the meeting. Agatha Richlowicz and Hanna Janiczek of the Polish Green Party participated as observers. Mary Stanojevic provided invaluable administrative assistance during the entire week. 1.4 Objectives of the "Policy Exercise" The participants at the September meeting received a detailed "Briefing Book" about a month beforehand to assist them in their preparations.2 This book listed three detailed objectives to guide the meeting: 1. to evolve and apply experimental methods and tools for making the scientific knowledge and information on climate change more useful to policy makers; 2. to use the Policy Exercise method to explore ideas on policy actions, research initiatives, and communications programs required to improve the debate on the climate change issue; and 3. to develop a set of recommendations on directions that should be taken to further develop and apply the Policy Exercise methods and tools.