DEVELOPMENT OF A MICRO-SIMULATION MODEL FOR MOTORWAY ROADWORKS WITH THE USE OF NARROW LANES AND LANE CLOSURE SCHEMES Zaid Fadhil NASSRULLAH School of Computing, Science and Engineering University of Salford Manchester, UK Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, July 2016 Table of Contents List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................... x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................................................. xvi DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................................. xvii DEDICATION ............................................................................................................................................... xviii ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................................... xix SYMBOLS ......................................................................................................................................................... xxi ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................... xxiv CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Aim and objectives ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Thesis outline .............................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................ 6 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 TTMSs at motorway roadworks ................................................................................. 6 2.2.1 Lane closure scheme ............................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 Narrow lanes scheme ............................................................................................ 7 2.2.3 Contra-flow scheme .............................................................................................. 7 2.3 Roadwork site layout .................................................................................................. 8 2.4 Traffic signage at roadworks ...................................................................................... 8 2.5 Traffic operation fundamentals .................................................................................. 9 2.6 Impacts of roadworks on traffic performance .......................................................... 10 2.6.1 Reduction in capacity ......................................................................................... 11 2.6.2 Increased delay ................................................................................................... 12 2.6.3 Reduction in speed ............................................................................................. 12 2.6.4 Reduction in safety level .................................................................................... 13 2.6.5 Effects of vehicle speed on safety level.............................................................. 13 2.7 Review of existing roadworks models...................................................................... 15 2.7.1 Mathematical models .......................................................................................... 15 2.7.2 Simulation models .............................................................................................. 16 2.8 Simulation techniques .............................................................................................. 18 2.8.1 Car-following models ......................................................................................... 19 2.8.1.1 Gazis Herman Rothery (GHR) model ............................................................ 19 2.8.1.2 Safety distance or collision avoidance (CA) models ...................................... 20 2.8.1.3 Psychophysical or action point (AP) models .................................................. 21 i 2.8.1.4 Other car-following models ............................................................................ 21 2.8.2 Lane-changing models ........................................................................................ 22 2.8.2.1 Review of previous lane-changing models ..................................................... 22 2.8.2.2 Lane-changing at roadworks .......................................................................... 24 2.8.2.3 Review of previous MLC models ................................................................... 26 2.8.3 Gap acceptance model ........................................................................................ 27 2.9 Other related simulation characteristics ................................................................... 30 2.9.1 Lane utilisation ................................................................................................... 30 2.9.2 Lane changing frequency.................................................................................... 32 2.9.3 Accepted gaps at merge sections ........................................................................ 32 2.9.4 Courtesy behaviours ........................................................................................... 33 2.9.5 Headway ............................................................................................................. 33 2.10 Summary ................................................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 36 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 36 3.2 Data collection techniques ........................................................................................ 36 3.3 Site selection ............................................................................................................. 37 3.3.1 Category I: Motorway roadwork sites ................................................................ 37 3.3.2 Category II: Normal motorway sections ............................................................ 38 3.3.3 Category III: Loop detectors data (Individual Vehicle Data-IVD) .................... 39 3.3.4 Category IV: Historical motorway sites ............................................................. 39 3.3.5 Summary of the selected sites ............................................................................ 40 3.4 Headway ................................................................................................................... 40 3.4.1 Headway distribution models ............................................................................. 40 3.4.1.1 Single headway models .................................................................................. 42 3.4.1.2 Composite headway models ........................................................................... 43 3.4.2 Testing headway distribution models using real data ......................................... 43 3.5 Lane utilisation ......................................................................................................... 47 3.5.1 Testing lane utilisation models using real data ................................................... 47 3.5.2 Lane utilisation at motorway roadwork sections ................................................ 48 3.6 Lane changing observations ..................................................................................... 50 3.6.1 Lane changing frequency.................................................................................... 50 3.6.1.1 Four lanes section ........................................................................................... 51 3.6.1.2 Three lanes section ......................................................................................... 51 3.6.1.3 Two lanes section ........................................................................................... 52 3.6.1.4 Summary ......................................................................................................... 53 3.6.2 Lane changing manoeuvring time ...................................................................... 53 ii 3.7 Traffic behaviour at roadworks ................................................................................ 54 3.7.1 Accepted gaps ..................................................................................................... 54 3.7.2 Courtesy behaviour ............................................................................................. 58 3.7.3 Compliance of drivers