The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized IRAN ECONOMIC MONITOR SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY Public Disclosure Authorized March 2016 Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank www.worldbank.org/lb Public Disclosure Authorized IRAN ECONOMIC MONITOR | SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY PREFACE The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update publications, please contact Nada Abou Rizk on key economic developments and policies over ([email protected]). For questions and the past six months. It examines these economic comments on the content of this publication, please developments and policies in a longer-term and contact Shahrzad Mobasher Fard (smobasherfard@ global context, and assesses their implications for the worldbank.org) or Eric Le Borgne (eleborgne@ outlook for the country. Its coverage ranges from the worldbank.org). Questions from the media can be macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of addressed to Mona Ziade ([email protected]). human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business Cover Photo: Shah Emam Mosque – Isfahan / leaders, financial market participants, and the Mohammad Reza Domiri Ganji / gravity.ir. community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iran. The Iran Economic Monitor is a product of the World Bank’s Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management team. It was prepared by Eric Le Borgne (Lead Economist), Abdoulaye Sy (Senior Economist), Shahrzad Mobasher Fard (Economist), and Samer Matta (Economic Analyst) under the general guidance of Auguste Tano Kouame (Global Practice Manager). The Special Focus on the banking system was prepared by Michael Edwards (Lead Financial Specialist), and the one on the oil and gas sector by Hossein Razavi (Consultant). Zeina El Khalil (Communications Officer) print-produced the report. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this Monitor are those of World Bank staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of The World Bank or the governments they represent. For information about the World Bank and its activities in Iran, including e-copies of this publication, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/ en/country/iran To be included on the email distribution list of the Iran Economic Monitor series and related Preface | 1 THE WORLD BANK IRAN ECONOMIC MONITOR | SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 6 RECENT ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................... 8 Recent Economic and Policy Developments ................................................................................................ 8 Output and Demand ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Labor and Employment ................................................................................................................................. 12 Public Finances ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Monetary Policy and the Financial Sector ...................................................................................................... 17 External Position............................................................................................................................................ 20 Economic Outlook and Risks ...................................................................................................................... 21 Economic Outlook ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Risks to the Outlook ..................................................................................................................................... 27 SPECIAL FOCUS 1: PROSPECTs for Iran’s OIL AND GAS EXPORT REVENUES ......................... 28 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 28 Prospects for Increasing Oil Export Revenues ............................................................................................... 30 Prospects for Increasing Gas Export Revenues .............................................................................................. 34 Selected Policy Issues ................................................................................................................................... 38 SPECIAL FOCUs 2: Iran’s FINANCIAL SECTOR AT THE DAWN OF THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 41 Structure and recent developments in the banking and financial sector ................................................. 41 The banking sector ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Recent banking sector policy developments and key AML/CFT outstanding issues ....................................... 45 Implications of the lifting of sanctions ....................................................................................................... 46 Key areas of potential financial sector reform ........................................................................................... 47 ANNEX 1 Iran’s FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................. 52 ANNEX 2 CAPITAL MARKETS AND NON-BANK FINANCIAL SECTOR ............................................... 53 ANNEX 3 GUIDE TO INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SECTOR RELATED STANDARDS .................... 55 SELECTED WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS ON IRAN .......................................................................... 56 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. Iranian economy posted modest growth following the 2014 economic recovery. ...................... 8 FIGURE 2. Sanctions relief and reforms by the new administration have improved trade .......................... 10 FIGURE 3. ... and economic growth ........................................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 4. ... and eased inflationary pressures ........................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 5. Timeline of main political and economic events. ...................................................................... 11 FIGURE 6. Real GDP growth was Driven by net exports ............................................................................ 11 FIGURE 7. Real GDP growth on the production side was broad-based ...................................................... 11 FIGURE 8. Turkey’s imports of mineral fuel and oil products, crude oil and unclassified products from Iran. 12 FIGURE 9. Labor market performance remains feeble despite stronger economic growth ......................... 13 FIGURE 10. Unemployment rate by age group and educational attainment, 2011... .................................... 13 FIGURE 11. Severance payment by worker’s tenure in Iran and in Malaysia, 2015 ...................................... 13 FIGURE 12. Budget balance has remained relatively balanced in recent years ............................................. 14 FIGURE 13. The structural non-oil balance has improved as of late of 2006 ................................................ 14 FIGURE 14. Share of VAT revenue relative to GDP in Iran remains low ....................................................... 15 FIGURE 15. Iran VAT collection efficiency remains low relative to comparative countries. .......................... 15 Table of Contents | 3 THE WORLD BANK FIGURE 16. Cost of cash subsidy program relative to GDP is declining ....................................................... 15 FIGURE 17. Debt-to-GDP ratio and external Debt-to-GDP are very modest ................................................ 15 FIGURE 18. Iran: current flow of funds of oil and gas revenues (as of March 2016) .................................... 16 FIGURE 19. The Iranian Rial depreciated slightly in 2014 but the gap between the official and parallel rates has narrowed ................................................................................................................................................ 19 FIGURE 20. Monetary policy is significantly tighter since July 2014 ............................................................. 19 FIGURE 21. The intensification of sanctions led to a large depreciation of the Rial and high inflation .......... 19 FIGURE 22. Tighter monetary policy contributed to reigning in inflation ..................................................... 19 FIGURE 23. Procedures for exporting and importing in Iran are lengthy ...................................................... 20 FIGURE 24. Cost of exporting and importing goods in Iran is high .............................................................. 20 FIGURE 25. Equity prices have stabilized