March 21 Calgary Greenway By-Election Update By Bruce Cameron Created on Mar 21st 2016 1 / 7 The Calgary Greenway by-election to replace the late Manmeet Bhullar is a hotly fought contest with a number of complex factors at play: 1. Memories. The legacy and memory of the late Manmeet Bhullar remains very fresh in voter's minds, aided by the weekend closure of lanes on Highway 2 by the RCMP to search for Manmeet's personal effects at the site of the tragedy. 2. Trudeau. The Alberta Liberal party is benefiting from the rise in popularity of federal Liberals, in particular PM Trudeau and Liberal MP Darshan Kang. 3. Splits. Given the divided opposition to the NDP, with a sizeable PC and Liberal vote as well as some Wildrose strength, the NDP's Roop Rai could benefit. Roop Rai is activating and motivating the core base of NDP supporters, assisted by the appearance of Premier Notley at a late campaign rally. That appearance helped the NDP establish late campaign momentum, as well as showcasing the benefit of having a Government MLA representing the constituency. The Wildrose weakness in major urban centres is apparent in Calgary Greenway, with a comparative lacklustre media presence and no momentum on the ground. If the PCs can retain the seat, the impact on merger talks will be considerable, providing strength to PC loyalists who want to maintain a greater say in any united right-of-centre party. Given the complexity of the political splits and the various factors unique to the riding (most prominently Manmeet's legacy, the allure of voting for the governing party, and the rise in federal Liberal popularity), the margin of victory is likely to be within 2-3% on March 22nd. If the PC's cannot retain the seat, their prospects for plotting an electoral comeback will be dealt a serious blow. On the other hand, a surprise Liberal win will serve to confound critics of the NDP, split among so many factions. An NDP victory in a 4 way fight could embolden the government and provide some expression of support for implementing a carbon tax. The Alberta Liberals' Karbani has been able to establish a strong social media presence in the past week, although the NDP's Roop Rai overcame that lead over the final weekend, becoming a polarizing figure with equal proportions of positive and negative commentary. While the PCs are competitive in 3rd place, their efforts seem focused on pulling out the vote, which may illustrate their relatively stronger ground game. The Wildrose party trails on all indicators and if they finish 4th in Calgary Greenway on March 22nd, it will deal a serious blow to their goal of uniting the right. 2 / 7 NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR 150 Khalil.. Roop Rai.. 536 369 100 mentions mentions 50 Prabhdeep.. Devinder.. 0 221 109 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar mentions mentions Prabhdeep Gill Devinder Toor WRP Khalil Karbani Lib Roop Rai NDP SHARE OF VOICE IN PAST 3 DAYS: MARCH 18-20 18 MAR 21 MAR Khalil Khalil Karbani Lib Roop Rai NDP Prabhdeep Gill Karbani Lib 38% 35% 18% Devinder Toor WRP 38% 8% EXPOSURE 15 MAR 21 MAR EXPOSURE 15 MAR 21 MAR 200K Khalil.. Roop Rai.. 482k 389k impressions impressions 100K Prabhdeep.. Devinder.. 0 297k 28k 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar impressions impressions Prabhdeep Gill Devinder Toor WRP Khalil Karbani Lib Roop Rai NDP SHARE OF MEDIA IN PAST 3 DAYS: MARCH 18-20 18 MAR 21 MAR Roop Rai Roop Rai NDP Khalil Karbani Lib Prabhdeep Gill NDP 46% 27% 26% Devinder Toor WRP 46% <1% 3 / 7 NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR Roop Rai, NDP for Roop Rai NDP Roop Rai's campaign seems to be gathering momentum in the final weekend of the by-election, and despite Male 74% heightened attacks from opponents like Rebel Media over proposed carbon taxes, Rai's well attended rally with Premier Notley shifted sentiment positively over Female 26% the final weekend. SENTIMENT METER 15 MAR 21 MAR OVERALL SENTIMENT 15 MAR 21 MAR for Roop Rai NDP 50% 25% 0% slightly positive -25% 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 19% 65% 16% positiv e neutral negativ e Roop Rai NDP Positive Negative overall sentiment: CONVERSATION MAP 15 MAR 21 MAR for Roop Rai NDP Candidate highway 13% rally Great Bhullar debate vote 4% 10% 7% 6% 5% 4% BLACKFALDS 6% Calgary- lacks Roop Greenway Manmeet access 5% 5% support attending Rai 4% 6% thinks 4% debate leaves Indi... 2016 NDP's ... 6% 5% 4% NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR for Roop Rai NDP 60 40 214 120 Roop Rai.. tweets mentions 141 20 retweets 0 15 Ma r 17 Ma r 19 Ma r 21 Ma r 16 Ma r 18 Ma r 20 Ma r Roop Rai.. Twitter Facebook 4 / 7 NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR Prabhdeep Gill, PC for Prabhde e p Gill Gill has remained competitive in the by-election in terms of social media presence and sentiment, but the Male 85% PCs face a complex 4 way fight to retain the seat. Most of the social media activity for Gill has focused on getting out the vote to advance polls, which may Female 15% indicate a strong "ground game". SENTIMENT METER 15 MAR 21 MAR OVERALL SENTIMENT 15 MAR 21 MAR for Prabhde e p Gill 100% 50% 0% positive -50% 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 30% 68% 2% positiv e neutral negativ e Prabhdeep Gill Positive Negative overall sentiment: CONVERSATION MAP 15 MAR 21 MAR for Prabhde e p Gill awareness attending 4% 3% event dafc support volunteers drug 3% 12% 9% 4% 3% advance 9am 8pm 4% Caring foundation team 3% fantastic 5% 3% 3% 6% seminar great youth 3% 3% tues MLA 10% vote polls 2% 2% 5% 3% NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR for Prabhde e p Gill 75 50 197 23 Prabhdeep.. tweets mentions 148 25 retweets 0 15 Ma r 17 Ma r 19 Ma r 21 Ma r 16 Ma r 18 Ma r 20 Ma r Prabhdee.. Twitter Facebook 5 / 7 NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR Khalil Karbani, Liberal for Khalil Karbani Lib The Liberal by-election campaign is being buoyed by a surge of positive reaction toward Prime Minister Male 73% Trudeau's federal Liberals, prompting a very high social media profile and a positive sentiment toward the candidate. Female 27% SENTIMENT METER 15 MAR 21 MAR OVERALL SENTIMENT 15 MAR 21 MAR for Khalil Karbani Lib 50% 25% moderately positive 0% 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 21% 75% 4% positiv e neutral negativ e Khalil Karbani Lib Positive Negative overall sentiment: CONVERSATION MAP 15 MAR 21 MAR for Khalil Karbani Lib Calgary- Alberta's polls vote candidate 2016 Greenway 4% 4% 22% 14% 5% 5% Calgary 4% advance MLA Thank- great 4% BLACKFALDS you 4% 4% lives 3% 5% 4% party Bhullar 7% 4% NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR for Khalil Karbani Lib 75 50 400 102 Khalil.. tweets mentions 328 25 retweets 0 15 Ma r 17 Ma r 19 Ma r 21 Ma r 16 Ma r 18 Ma r 20 Ma r Khalil K.. Twitter Facebook 6 / 7 NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR Devinder Toor, WRP for De vinde r T oor WRP The Wildrose Party's weakness in major urban centres is illustrated in the Calgary Greenway race, as Toor's Male 64% campaign runs 4th in terms of share of voice and media attention in the past week, with mixed sentiment. Female 36% SENTIMENT METER 15 MAR 21 MAR OVERALL SENTIMENT 15 MAR 21 MAR for De vinde r T oor WRP 75% 50% 25% 0% slightly positive -25% 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 24% 60% 16% positiv e neutral negativ e Devinder Toor WRP Positive Negative overall sentiment: CONVERSATION MAP 15 MAR 21 MAR for De vinde r T oor WRP Prab conservative 2% election 16% candidate March vote 2% 10% 8% 5% feed Brian 2% 5% Calgary Toor's Gill 2016 5% 5% forget 8% 8% 2% photo randomly 2% 2% bright liberal 2% commitment 5% 2% NUMBER OF MENTIONS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR RETWEETS 15 MAR 21 MAR for De vinde r T oor WRP 20 58 24 Devinder.. 10 mentions tweets 18 retweets 0 15 Ma r 17 Ma r 19 Ma r 21 Ma r 16 Ma r 18 Ma r 20 Ma r Devinder.. Facebook Twitter 7 / 7.