Californias Advanced Clean Cars Midterm Review Appendix C: Zero Emission Vehicle and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology Assessment January 18, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction and Vehicle Summary .......................................................................................... 1 I. A. Past and Current Zero Emission Vehicle Models ............................................................. 2 I.A.1. Future Vehicles .......................................................................................................... 3 II. PEV Technology Status and Progress ................................................................................... 5 II. A. Industry Targets for PEVs .............................................................................................. 5 II. B. PEV Technology Trends ................................................................................................ 7 II.B.1. 2016 Technical Assessment Report PEV Findings ................................................... 7 II.B.2. Battery Pack Energy Capacity Increases .................................................................. 9 II.B.3. Vehicle All Electric Range Increases ........................................................................11 II.B.4. Increased Platform and AWD Capability ..................................................................12 II.B.5. Current State of PEV Specific Technology ...............................................................16 II.B.6. Energy Storage Technology- Batteries ....................................................................20 II.B.7. Expected Developments in Energy Storage Technology ..........................................29 II.B.8. Potential Long-Term Developments in Energy Storage Technology ........................32 II.B.9. Well-to-Wheel (WTW) and Cradle-to-Grave (C2G) Emissions .................................37 II.B.10. Battery Recycling and Reuse .................................................................................39 II.B.11. Non-Battery Components ......................................................................................40 II.B.12. Non-Battery Components Expected Developments ...............................................47 II.B.13. Other Expected Developments ..............................................................................52 II.B.14. Potential Long-Term Developments in Non-Battery Components ..........................55 II.B.15. Potential Long-Term Developments in Charging Technology .................................55 II.B.16. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV) and Car Sharing ..............................56 II. C. PEV Costs ....................................................................................................................58 II.C.1. Battery Costs ...........................................................................................................58 II.C.2. Non-Battery Costs ...................................................................................................62 II.C.3. Rolled Up PEV Costs...............................................................................................63 III. FCEV Technology Status and Trends ..................................................................................63 III. A. Available FCEV Models: ...............................................................................................64 III. B. FCEV’s Anticipated Role in Transport Sector: ..............................................................67 III. C. FCEV Basic Technology Components: ........................................................................67 III. D. FCEV Technology Trends: ...........................................................................................68 III. E. FCEV Cost Trends: ......................................................................................................73 IV. References ..........................................................................................................................77 C - ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Aggregate TZEV and ZEV Models by Model Year ..................................................... 3 Figure 2 - BEV Battery Pack Growth by Model Year .................................................................10 Figure 3 - PHEV Battery Pack Growth by Model Year ...............................................................11 Figure 4 - U.S. DOE Chart Comparing PEVs and Conventional Vehicle Ranges for 2016 Model Year ..........................................................................................................................................12 Figure 5 - 2018 to 2021MY Unique ZEVs by Size, Type, and Range ........................................15 Figure 6 - Electric Motor Positions in HEVs ...............................................................................17 Figure 7 - Chevrolet Volt (Gen 2) Electric Powertrain ................................................................17 Figure 8 - Chevrolet Bolt EV Electric Powertrain .......................................................................17 Figure 9 - Tesla Model S Rear Drive Unit Assembly .................................................................18 Figure 10 - Volvo XC90 T8 Powertrain Cutaway .......................................................................19 Figure 11 - Cylindrical lithium-ion battery ..................................................................................21 Figure 12 - Cross Section of a Prismatic Cell ............................................................................22 Figure 13 - AESC Battery Module for Nissan Leaf with 24kWh Battery Pack ............................23 Figure 14 - SK Innovation Battery Cell Used in Kia Soul EV .....................................................23 Figure 15 - Idealized Lithium Ion Battery ...................................................................................24 Figure 16 - Comparison of Idealized Conventional Battery to Idealized Solid State Battery.......33 Figure 17 - Well to Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2035 Mid-Size Car, gCO2-equivalent per mile (U.S. DOE) ..................................................................................................................39 Figure 18 - Price History for Neodymium and Dysprosium Rare Earth Materials .......................43 Figure 19 - Toyota Production PCU (left) and SiC Prototype PCU (right) ..................................52 Figure 20 - Estimated ranges of operational energy impacts of vehicle automation through different mechanisms ................................................................................................................57 Figure 21 - Range of projected battery pack cost reductions, $/kWh (2014) ..............................60 Figure 22 - BEV200 Battery Pack Costs, 2013 ..........................................................................61 Figure 23 - PHEV40 Battery Pack Costs, 2013 .........................................................................62 Figure 24 - FCEV Models Available in California now –Toyota, Hyundai, Honda ......................65 Figure 25 - General Motors Demonstration Military All-wheel Drive Four-door Pickup Truck .....65 Figure 26 - Schematic of Components Included in a Fuel Cell System .....................................68 Figure 27 - General Motors FCEV System Size Improvements Depicted Over a Ten-Year Period .................................................................................................................................................69 Figure 28 - Conceptual Image of Conformable Tubes for Compressed Hydrogen Gas On-board Storage .....................................................................................................................................71 Figure 29 - 2015 Status of Hydrogen Storage Technologies (Does not represent eventual potential) ...................................................................................................................................72 Figure 30 - Preproduction Image of Model Year 2018 Mercedes GLC FCPEV .........................73 Figure 31 - Percent Split between Fuel Cell System Components for Low and High Volume Production Levels ................................................................................................74 Figure 32 - History of U.S. DOE Fuel Cell Cost Projections for 500,000 Production Units per Year ..........................................................................................................................................75 Figure 33 - Fuel Cell System Cost Projections by Year of Projection and Production Units per Year ..........................................................................................................................................76 C - iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 - U.S. DOE EV Everywhere Grand Challenge 2022 Targets ......................................... 6 Table 2 - U.S. DRIVE 2015 and 2020 Targets for Electrified Components, ................................ 7 Table 3 - Battery Thermal Management Systems of Available MY16 and Available/Announced MY17 Models, ...........................................................................................................................28 Table 4 - Electric Machine Type for MY16 and Known Expected MY17 ZEVs and TZEVs, .......42 Table 5 - INL OBC Testing Results of Several Vehicles ............................................................47 Table 6- SAE TIR J2954 and Future Potential