A Study of Car and House Ownership in the face of Increasing Commuting Expenses (CHOICE) by Elli Maria Papaioannou A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Masters of Applied Science Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto © Copyright by Elli Maria Papaioannou, 2014 A Study of Car and House Ownership in the face of Increasing Commuting Expenses (CHOICE) Elli Maria Papaioannou Masters of Applied Science Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto 2014 Abstract This research presents the design, implementation and results of a survey of Car and House Ownership in the face of Increasing Commuting Expenses (CHOICE). The CHOICE survey is a web-based survey that combines RP and SP components, and was designed to collect information of commuting mode choices, housing and neighbourhood preferences along with vehicle ownership choices of households with cross-regional commuters in the Greater Toronto Area. Investigations of the survey data revealed that for small increases in commuting costs people are willing to change to more efficient cars. As commuting costs reached higher levels, participants chose to relocate their home in order to commute shorter distances. This study provides evidence that vehicle ownership and especially residential location decisions are a complex process and are interrelated. The findings of this study show some of the possible reactions of households in the GTA in the face of extreme increases in transportation costs. ii Acknowledgments This two-year-long journey flew by and I am standing at the end of it today trying to think of all the challenges I faced, all the wonderful and bright people I met, all the things I learned, and all the friends I earned. First, I would like to sincerely thank my supervisor, Khandker Nurul Habib, for his valuable guidance and genuine care. He is an enthusiastic teacher and a great person who treats his students as his children. I want to thank him for his help, advice and kindness. Many thanks to all my other professors for their important input: Amer Shalaby, Lloyd McCoomb, and especially Matthew Roorda for spending the time and energy as a second reviewer of my thesis. Second, I want to thank Dimitris Panagiotakopoulos, the programmer who not only helped in coding the survey, but with his patience and experience also played a definitive role in the outcome of the study. I also want to thank my friends and colleagues within the transportation group at the University of Toronto. Mohamed Salah Mahmoud offered his valuable help and support countless times throughout these two years, and I consider myself lucky for having the opportunity to learn from him. Many thanks go to Adam Weiss for offering his help during the development of the survey. Of course, these two years would not have been the same without my good friends and office- mates: Adam Wenneman and Nico Malfara; you two made my days in that office “brighter”. Finally, I want to thank my family: my mother and my brother for their support and love, and especially my father who throughout my life has not only been a parent but my mentor and my biggest supporter. Many thanks to my “sisters”: Lindsey, Lida and Theofili for their love and countless sessions of skype-laughter. And last but not least, I want to thank my Toronto-people: Lee, Holly, Jane, Kaisa and Aitor who together with the rest of the crew made these two years the most memorable and adventurous journey of my life. Elli Papaioannou September 2014 iii Table of Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................................. xi 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research Goals and Objectives ........................................................................................... 3 1.2 Thesis Layout ...................................................................................................................... 4 2 Literature Review ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Vehicle Ownership .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Transit-pass Ownership ...................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Residential Location Choice and Travel Costs ................................................................... 9 2.4 Web surveys: Advantages and Disadvantages .................................................................. 12 2.4.1 Errors in Surveys ................................................................................................... 14 2.5 Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) Data............................................. 16 3 A Survey of Car and House Ownership in the face of Increasing Commuting Expenses (CHOICE) and the Background of the Study Area .................................................................. 18 3.1 Study Area ........................................................................................................................ 18 3.1.1 The Greater Toronto Area ..................................................................................... 20 3.1.2 The Transportation Tomorrow Survey ................................................................. 23 3.2 Survey Sample Design and Target Population ................................................................. 23 3.2.1 Sample Size Determination ................................................................................... 24 4 CHOICE Survey Design .......................................................................................................... 26 iv 4.1 RP ...................................................................................................................................... 27 4.1.1 Housing Information ............................................................................................. 27 4.1.2 Socio-demographic and Commuting Trip Information ........................................ 27 4.1.3 Vehicle Information .............................................................................................. 29 4.2 SP ...................................................................................................................................... 31 4.2.1 Experimental Design ............................................................................................. 31 4.2.2 SP1: Effects of Price Changes on Mobility Tool Ownership ............................... 31 4.2.3 SP2: Residential Relocation as a Reaction to Increased Transportation Costs .... 37 4.2.4 Comments on the SP Component ......................................................................... 42 4.3 Software ............................................................................................................................ 44 4.4 Recruiting .......................................................................................................................... 44 4.5 Sample Distribution and Representativeness .................................................................... 44 5 CHOICE Survey Results .......................................................................................................... 48 5.1 RP Descriptive Analysis ................................................................................................... 48 5.1.1 Household Descriptive Analysis ........................................................................... 48 5.1.2 Descriptive Statistics of Individuals’ Characteristics ........................................... 51 5.2 SP1 Descriptive Analysis: Mobility Tool Ownership ...................................................... 53 5.2.1 Fuel Consumption and Engine Type ..................................................................... 54 5.2.2 Vehicle Type ......................................................................................................... 55 5.2.3 Influence of Different Factors on Operation Costs ............................................... 56 5.2.4 Transit Pass Ownership ......................................................................................... 57 5.2.5 Relocating Decision .............................................................................................. 57 5.3 SP2 Descriptive Analysis: Residential Location Choice .................................................. 59 5.3.1 GTA Overview of SP2 .......................................................................................... 60 5.3.2 Conclusion of Residential Location Choice Descriptive Analysis ....................... 66 5.4 Dwelling Type Choice .....................................................................................................