Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future Industrial zone "Jug" in Vladicin Han VOLUME 2: FEASIBILITY STUDY Municipality Vladicin Han December 2011 Final version CRIS 223 – 292 (08/SER01/13/21) P2011 - 2 A Project implemented by Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future Koste Glavinica 2/3 11000 Belgrade Serbia +381 11 369 09 87 Telephone +381 11 369 09 95 +381 11 265 03 85 Fax [email protected] E-mail www.misp-serbia.rs Internet Document title Industrial zone "Jug" in Vladicin Han VOLUME 2: FEASIBILITY STUDY Document short title FS IZ Vladicin Han Status Final version Date December 2011 Project name MISP Programme Project number CRIS 223 – 292 (08/SER01/13/21) Client Municipality Vladicin Han Reference number P2011 - 2 Drafted by Checked by Date/initials check …………………. …………………. Approved by Date/initials …………………. …………………. 1 December 2011 FS IZ Vladicin Han A Project implemented by Final version Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 1.1 Background 10 1.2 Legal and Institutional Framework and Management Options 11 1.3 Existing Situation for Resources and Infrastructure 13 1.3.1 Current Economic Situation 13 1.3.2 Industrial Zones in the Spatial Plan for Serbia, 2010 -2020 13 1.3.3 Strategy and Policy Development for Industry of Serbia from 2011 to 2020 14 1.3.4 European Context on Industrial Development 15 1.3.5 Analysis of Existing Production Factors 15 1.3.6 Main Findings 20 1.4 Market Analysis 20 1.4.1 Supply Chain Evaluation 20 1.4.2 Food Industry 21 1.4.3 Wood Sector 21 1.4.4 Manufacturing Sector 21 1.4.5 Clothing and Footwear Sector 22 1.4.6 Electronic Industry 22 1.4.7 Services and Construction 22 1.4.8 Foreign Direct Investment 23 1.4.9 Supply Side Factors 23 1.5 Long Term Development Plan 26 1.5.1 Demand Factors 26 1.5.2 Job Creation 27 1.5.3 Land Requirements Forecast 28 1.5.4 Land Supply Factors 29 1.5.5 Development Scenarios 30 1.5.6 Other Services to Provide Added Value 37 1.5.7 Proposed Infrastructure Development 37 1.5.8 Cost Estimates 43 1.6 Environmental and social impact assessment 44 1.7 Municipality Vladicin Han Creditworthiness Assessment 45 1.8 Cost Benefit Analysis 45 1.8.1 Investment Costs 45 1.8.2 Revenues from the sell/long term lease of industrial plots 48 1.8.3 Economic Analysis 49 1.8.4 Sensitivity and Risk Analysis 51 1.9 Financial Assessment of the Company d.o.o. Slobodna zona Vladicin Han 58 1.10 Conclusion 59 2 BACKGROUND 62 2.1 Objectives 62 2.2 Organization of the Report 62 2.3 Context 63 2.3.1 International Objectives 63 2.3.2 Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme 63 2.3.3 Selection of Projects for Support 64 2.4 The Project 64 2 December 2011 FS IZ Vladicin Han A Project implemented by Final version Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future 2.4.1 Topography 65 2.4.2 Climate 66 2.4.3 Air Quality 67 2.4.4 Hydrography and Hydrology 67 2.4.5 Surface Water Quality 68 2.4.6 Geology 69 2.5 Planning Framework 69 3 LEGAL POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK 71 3.1 Introduction 71 3.2 Policy Framework 71 3.3 Legal framework for free and industrial zones 74 3.4 Convergence to EU Directives 78 3.5 International Agreements 79 3.6 Main Stakeholders 80 3.7 Horizontal Issues 82 3.8 Participatory and Public Information Activities 82 4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC EVALUATION 84 4.1 Introduction 84 4.2 Geography and location access 84 4.3 Regional and cross–border cooperation 86 4.4 Population trends 86 4.4.1 Population Structure 87 4.4.2 Migration 88 4.5 Economic background 88 4.5.1 Economic potential 89 4.5.2 Medium and small size enterprises 89 4.6 Human Resources /Access of labour 90 4.6.1 Sectors of employment 90 4.6.2 Labor cost 91 4.6.3 Unemployment 92 4.6.4 Anticipated impact on employment ( Brief overview ) 94 4.7 Supporting institutions 94 4.8 Conclusion 95 5 INSTITUTIONAL AND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS 97 5.1 Introduction 97 5.2 The sequence of steps to be carried out in the Option 1 97 5.2.1 Analysis of Steps for Option 1 98 5.2.2 The sequence of steps to be carried out in the Option 2 102 5.2.3 Analysis of Steps for Option 2 102 5.3 Risks and assumptions 104 5.4 Conclusion and Recommendations 104 6 EXISTING SITUATION FOR RESOURCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE 105 6.1 Introduction 105 6.2 Current Economic Situation 105 6.3 Industrial Zones in the Spatial Plan for Serbia, 2010 -2020 106 3 December 2011 FS IZ Vladicin Han A Project implemented by Final version Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future 6.4 Strategy and Policy Development for Industry of Serbia from 2011 to 2020 109 6.5 European Context on Industrial Development 113 6.5.1 Strategic Framework 113 6.5.2 Financing the Implementation of the Strategic Framework 114 6.5.3 Present Situation of the Industrial Sector in Vladicin Han 114 6.6 Analysis of Existing Production Factors 115 6.6.1 Existing Infrastructure 115 6.6.2 Transport Network 115 6.6.3 Electricity 118 6.6.4 Gas 122 6.6.5 Water Supply 122 6.6.6 Wastewater 128 6.6.7 Solid Waste 130 6.6.8 Telecommunications 130 6.6.9 Human Resources 130 6.6.10 Natural Resources 132 6.7 Existing Supply Condition for Industrial Land in Vladicin Han 134 6.7.1 Existing industrial zone – Centre 134 6.7.2 Existing Industrial Zone "Jug" Suva Morava 136 6.8 Existing Supply Condition for Industrial Land in Vranje 140 6.9 Existing Supply Condition for Industrial Land in Surdulica 142 6.10 Main Findings 143 7 MARKET ANALYSIS 145 7.1 Introduction 145 7.2 Typical Example of Modern Supply Chain Management 145 7.3 Distance and Time to Market 147 7.4 Types of Industrial Facilities 147 7.5 Analysis of Market Segments 150 7.6 Agriculture & Forestry 152 7.6.1 Food Industry 152 7.6.2 Wood Industry Cluster 156 7.7 Manufacturing Sector 158 7.7.1 Industrial Components 159 7.7.2 Home Appliances Sector 160 7.7.3 Clothing and Footware Sector 162 7.7.4 Electronic Industry 164 7.8 Services & Construction 167 7.8.1 Construction Industry 167 7.8.2 Distribution and Logistics Services 170 7.8.3 Business Support &Services 171 7.9 Foreign Direct Investments 172 7.10 Enquiries from Potential Investors 173 7.11 Supply Side Factors 173 7.11.1 European Market Analysis 173 7.11.2 Serbia and Region Market Analysis 174 7.11.3 Land and Rental Market Estimates for Europe 175 7.11.4 Land Market Price Estimates for Serbia 177 7.12 Supply Side Incentives 177 4 December 2011 FS IZ Vladicin Han A Project implemented by Final version Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future 7.12.1 Supply Side Policies for the Labour Market 178 7.12.2 Supply Side Policies for Product Markets 180 7.12.3 Free Trade Zones 186 7.13 Main Findings 192 8 LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT PLAN 193 8.1 Introduction 193 8.2 Land Demand Factors 193 8.2.1 Economic Situation 193 8.2.2 Location 194 8.2.3 Availability and Cost of Finance 194 8.2.4 Fiscal and Other Incentives 194 8.2.5 Cost of Land 194 8.2.6 Ease of Doing Business 195 8.3 Job Creation Forecast 195 8.3.1 The Strategy and Policy Development for Industry of Serbia, 2011-2020 195 8.3.2 Job Creation Targets for Vladicin Han Industrial Zones 198 8.4 Land Requirements Forecast 199 8.5 Land Supply Factors 202 8.5.1 Zoning Constraints and Requirements 202 8.5.2 Availability of Land 205 8.6 Development Scenarios 206 8.6.1 Supply and Demand Match of Serviced Land 206 8.6.2 Concept I 206 8.6.3 Concept II 208 8.6.4 Concept III 210 8.6.5 Other Services to Provide Added Value 212 8.7 Design Criteria and Proposed Infrastructure Development 214 8.7.1 Plot Planning 214 8.7.2 Plot Access, internal Circulation and Parking 217 8.7.3 Factories Design Standards 218 8.7.4 Access to Industrial Zone 220 8.7.5 Internal Road Network 224 8.7.6 Water Supply 227 8.7.7 Wastewater collection and treatment 234 8.7.8 Stormwater Drainage 236 8.7.9 Flood protection 239 8.7.10 Electrical Power and Street Lighting 242 8.7.11 Telecommunications 248 8.7.12 Gas 249 8.7.13 Solid Waste 249 8.8 Cost Estimates 250 8.8.1 Land 250 8.8.2 Capital Works 251 8.8.3 Technical Assistance and Project Preparation 252 8.8.4 Contingencies 252 8.8.5 Summary of Cost Estimates 253 8.8.6 Operating Costs 253 8.9 Main Findings 254 5 December 2011 FS IZ Vladicin Han A Project implemented by Final version Municipal Infrastructure Support Programme An EU funded project ●●● Building together for the future 9 ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT 255 9.1 Introduction 255 9.2 Environmental Settings of the Project Area 255 9.3 Socio-Economic Settings of the Project Area 256 9.4 Major Environmental Concerns 256 9.4.1 Water Supplying Source “Lepenica” 256 9.4.2 The South Morava River Quality 256 9.4.3 Potential Historical Contamination 257 9.5 Recommended Mitigation and Monitoring Measures 257 9.6 Environmental and Social Benefits of the Project 257 10 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS 258 10.1 Introduction 258 10.2 Municipal Budget Analysis and Creditworthiness Assessment 260 10.2.1 Introduction 260 10.2.2 National and Local Regulatory Context 260 10.2.3 Vladicin Han Municipal Financial Operations 263 10.2.4 Municipal Budget Revenues 263 10.2.5 Municipal Budget Expenditures 266 10.2.6 Municipal Investment Expenditures 267 10.2.7 Municipal balance sheets analysis 269 10.2.8 Credit history and financial management capacity 271 10.2.9 Creditworthiness assessment of Municipality 272 10.2.10 Risks & Weaknesses 278 10.3 Financial Analysis 279 10.3.1 Methodological