Public Disclosure Authorized IFIHIE \VORILD IBANIK RIESIEARC]Hl PROGRAM Public Disclosure Authorized 11997 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ABsTRAcTs oF CUIRRIENT STUD1ES THE WORLD BANK RESEARCH PROGRAM 1997 ABSTRACTS OF CURRENT STUDIES THE WORLD BANK WASHINGTON, DC Objectives and Definition of World Bank Research The World Bank's research program has four basic objectives: * To support all aspects of Bank operations, including the assessment of development progress in member countries. * To broaden understanding of the development process. * To improve the Bank's capacity to give policy advice to its members. * To help develop indigenous research capacity in member countries. Research at the Bank encompasses analytical work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerg- ing policy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending opera- tion or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific pro- jects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities-research and economic and sector work-are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Copyright @ 1997 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved. First printing September 1997 Manufactured in the United States of America ISSN 0258-3143 ISBN 0-8213-4051-4 This report has been prepared by the staff of the World Bank. The judgments expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or of the governments they represent. CONTENTS Introduction 1 Studies by Subject Area 3 Abstracts of Current Studies 9 Poverty and Social Welfare 11 Labor Markets and Education 27 Environmentally Sustainable Development 43 Infrastructure and Urban Development 67 Macroeconomics 74 International Economics 84 Domestic Finance and Capital Markets 112 Transition Economies 122 Private Sector Development and Public Sector Management 139 Bank Research Output 155 Index of Studies by Department 183 iii 勵 INTRODUCTION The World Bank is in the midst of a renewal. Through a What Research Is Now Under Way? long process of managed change, it is reshaping itself to strengthen its effectiveness in helping countries reduce This volume reports on research projects initiated, under poverty and improve the quality of life. Central to this way, or completed in fiscal 1997 (July 1, 1996, through process is a focus on learning: June 30,1997). The abstracts in the volume describe, for * Learning how to strengthen social and environmental each project, the questions addressed, the analytical meth- sustainability. ods used, the findings to date, and their policy implica- 9 Learning how to foster participation in the projects tions. Each abstract also identifies the expected completion that the Bank supports. date, the research team, and any reports or publications * Learning how to build partnerships with others in produced. To make it easier to obtain information and the development community. data, each abstract gives the e-mail address for the research - Learning how to support local institutions in devel- project's supervisor. oping countries. The abstracts cover 214 research projects from through- Some of this learning comes through accumulated out the Bank, grouped under nine major headings: experience-not only the Bank's but also that of clients 9 Poverty and social welfare, including equity, demo- and donors-from slow and sometimes painful trial and graphics, and health and nutrition. error. Some comes through discussions with other mem- * Labor markets and education. bers of the international community, as comparisons of e Environmentally sustainable development, includ- what each has done separately begin to reveal impor- ing environmental economics, energy, agriculture, and tant patterns in growth and development. But on the natural resources. issues that are the most complex and the most contro- * Infrastructure and urban development. versial-and often on the issues that involve the great- * Macroeconomics, including monetary and fiscal pol- est conflicts between those who will gain and those who icy and adjustment. will lose-useful lessons emerge only when such pat- - International economics, including trade, finance, terns are studied carefully, objectively, over time, and and debt. across countries or regions. a Domestic finance and capital markets. It is to these issues that World Bank research repeat- e Transition economies. edly turns. And because these issues usually involve 9 Private sector development and public sector man- tradeoffs, changes in patterns of living, and shifts in the agement, including industrial organization, regulation, distribution of losses and benefits under current policies, institutions, political economy, and privatization. the results of research investigating them are questioned, An appendix lists reports and publications produced examined, and disputed. So Bank researchers refine the from Bank research and explains how to obtain them. studies, revise the definitions and measures, and expand Finally, the abstracts are indexed by the sponsoring unit. the coverage of countries and possible policy approaches. The process of learning, of acceptance, and of change is How to Get More Information a slow one. This volume is a snapshot of one year in this process This is the annual compendium of current Bank research. of investigation, debate, and reassessment. Some issues Readers interested in obtaining more frequent and up- are just emerging, others are the subject of major pro- to-date information on Bank research projects and their grams of research, and a few have been resolved and the findings may wish to subscribe to the quarterly Policy findings are beginning to be reflected in policy. and Research Bulletin. Each issue includes information The Bank's work encompasses lending programs, tech- on recent World Bank publications and working papers, nical assistance, and policy advice across the broad range abstracts of newly initiated research projects and sum- of issues that governments confront. Because questions maries of recent research findings, a column identifying and conflicts arise across this entire range, the Bank's electronic information available from the Bank, and a research program is equally broad. form for ordering reports featured in that issue. The bul- Introduction letin is available free of charge. For information on how Bank reports are available on the World Wide Web at to subscribe, see the subscription request form at the back http://www.worldbank.org. Research reports and informa- of this volume. tion on the World Bank's research branch, the Develop- The bulletin, Abstracts of Current Studies, abstracts of ment Economics Vice Presidency, are available at articles in the Bank's two journals, the World Bank Research http://www.worldbank.org/html/dec/home.html. Observer and World Bank Economic Review, and a host of 2 STUDIES BY SUBJECT AREA Poverty and Social Welfare 11 Adjustment and Poverty in Mexican Agriculture: How Farmers' Wealth Affects Supply Response (679-50) 11 Improving the Policy Relevance of Living Standards Measurement Study Surveys (679-61) 11 The Public-Private Mix and Equity in Health Care: An Exploratory Empirical Study (679-95) 12 Nutrition, Health, and Labor Productivity in Kenya (680-03C) 13 Dynamics of Child Health in Indonesia (680-37) 14 Rural Poverty in Latin America: Analytics, New Empirical Evidence, and Policy (680-75C) 14 AIDS and Development: The Role of Government (680-80C) 15 Assessing the Economic Impact of Nonocular Onchocerciasis (680-81C) 16 Maternal and Child Overweight and Obesity: A Global Comparison (680-83C) 17 Valuing Mortality Reductions in India: A Study of Compensating Wage Differentials (680-84C) 17 Decentralizing Safety Nets: Community Choices and Their Impact on Households (680-98) 18 Impact of Targeted Credit Programs on Consumption Smoothing and Nutrition in Bangladesh (681-09C) 18 Welfare Impacts of Alternative Ways of Providing Rural Infrastructure (681-13C) 19 Policies for Poor Areas (681-39) 19 Incentives for Doctor Placements in Rural and Remote Areas (681-56) 20 Poverty and Income Distribution Dynamics in a High-Growth Economy: The Case of Chile, 1987-94 (681-59) 21 Does Schooling Expansion Equalize Income? (681-67) 21 The Measurement and Prediction of Poverty in an Aging World (681-73) 22 Poverty and the International Economy: What Are the Links? (681-83) 22 Quantifying the Net Economic Loss or Gain from Tobacco Use (681-95) 23 Public Expenditures and Poverty 23 A Volume on Subsidies Research 24 The Methodology of Poverty Assessments 25 World Poverty Monitoring 25 Allocation of Public Expenditures 26 Labor Markets and Education 27 Putting Inputs to Work in Primary Schools: Four Experiments in the Philippines (679-01C) 27 Impact Evaluation of Education Projects: Decentralization and