Note: This report contains material relevant to NCHRP Project 20-83(03)A extracted from: Phase I Interim Report to the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM (NCHRP) on Project NCHRP 20-83(03) Long-Range Strategic Issues Affecting Preservation, Maintenance, and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure Limited Use Document This Quarterly Progress Report is furnished only for review by members of the NCHRP project panel and is regarded as fully privileged. Dissemination of information included herein must be approved by the NCHRP. January 2012 from Texas Transportation Institute Texas A&M Research Foundation Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. viii Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................... xi Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. xi Research Objective and Scope ................................................................................................................. xi Scenario Planning Methodology ............................................................................................................. xii Six Multi-driver Scenarios .......................................................................................................................xiii Key Findings ............................................................................................................................................xiii Phase II and Beyond................................................................................................................................xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 Research Problem ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Research Objective ................................................................................................................................... 2 Research Scope ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Phase I: Scenarios and Impacts ............................................................................................................. 2 Phase II: Vision Development ............................................................................................................... 2 Phase III: Guidance and Communication .............................................................................................. 2 Phase IV: Deliverables ........................................................................................................................... 3 Overview of Research Process for Phase I ................................................................................................ 3 Task 1: Information Review .................................................................................................................. 3 Task 2: Initial World Development........................................................................................................ 4 Task 3: World Vetting............................................................................................................................ 5 Task 4: Scenario Development.............................................................................................................. 5 Task 5: Interim Report .......................................................................................................................... 6 Definitions of Terms Used in This Report ................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 2: Information Review..................................................................................................................... 9 General Literature Review ........................................................................................................................ 9 Review of Other 20-83 Projects .............................................................................................................. 11 Contents of 20-83 Reports .................................................................................................................. 12 Comparison of 20-83(03) Technical Areas with Other 20-83 Information ......................................... 14 Overview of Scenario Planning Methodology ........................................................................................ 19 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 20 iii Chapter 3: Use Of Scenario Planning in Technical Area Assessments ........................................................ 21 General Basis for Technical Area Assessments ....................................................................................... 21 Project 20-83(07) as a Building Block.................................................................................................. 21 Drivers and Technical Areas Developed in 20-83(07) and 20-83(03) ................................................. 22 Worlds as a Setting for 13 Technical Areas......................................................................................... 23 Development of 20-83(03) Drivers and Worlds...................................................................................... 24 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 4: Worlds ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Assessment Approach............................................................................................................................. 27 Inputs to Task 2 ................................................................................................................................... 27 Creating Descriptions of Technical Areas, Key Drivers, and Worlds ................................................... 28 Vetting, Reviewing, and Refining World Descriptions ........................................................................ 29 Technical Area: Technology And Innovations ......................................................................................... 29 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 29 Key Drivers .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Six Worlds ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Technical Area: The Environment ........................................................................................................... 32 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 32 Key Drivers .......................................................................................................................................... 32 Six Worlds ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Technical Area: System Performance ..................................................................................................... 34 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 34 Key Drivers .......................................................................................................................................... 34 Six Worlds ........................................................................................................................................... 35 Technical Area: Security.......................................................................................................................... 37 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 37 Key Drivers .......................................................................................................................................... 37 Six Worlds ........................................................................................................................................... 37 Technical Area: Natural-Resource Availability ........................................................................................ 39 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 39 Key Drivers .........................................................................................................................................