Section I Security in and around the Baltic States On the eve of NATO and the EU enlargements the Baltic Defence Review once again suggests to reflect on the issues that need to be carefully thought through in the Baltic states before entering the new period of their history. In the first article, Ambassador Torstern Orn offers a broad description of the Baltic Sea Region, both in historical and contemporary contexts, and its importance in the new and united Europe. His eloquent and insightful account of transforma- tions that the region has been, and still is, going through also reminds us of the questions which call for our attention. Some of those questions are new, stemming from the new realities of the region, and some are old but still unanswered, which underlines both change and continuity as a defining feature of the regions development. The authors simple but powerful words on the need to master the past without negligence or nostalgia describe very accurately one of the most fundamental challenges that the entire Baltic Sea Region will have to tackle in the coming decades. In the second article of this section, Brigadier General Michael H. Clemmesen casts a critical look at the expectations of the incoming NATO members towards the deterrent value of membership. He contrasts those expectations with the direction of military reforms that the entire Alliance is pursuing. Thus articles argument revolves around the dilemma of new members, who are positioned on the periphery of the Alliance and have some distinct security concerns. On the one hand, they have to make a meaningful contribution to the missions of NATO, which is preparing to project power globally. On the other hand, they wish to retain some effective capability to address their own, local or regional, security realities. Inevitably, the question of how much of the allied assistance would be available and what difference it would make in dealing with the direct military threat comes into equation. The author assesses military reforms undertaken by the old and new members of NATO and offers clear recommendations on how to balance the two imperatives an optimal contribution to the Alliance by the new members and security of those new members on the periphery of NATO through adjustments to the concepts and direction of developing military capabilities within the Alliance. 5 The Baltic Sea Region an Important Economic and Political Factor in the New Europe By Torsten Orn* he Baltic Sea region has a stormy was the wall between East and West Ber- most of the commercial and cultural cen- history. It has been marked by the lin. Few Swedes were thinking of Tallinn tres around the Baltic Sea, who all bear Vikings, the Crusading Knights, the as the closest capital city to Stockholm, the imprint of how much one can learn Hanseatic merchants, great power navies and even fewer remembered that Riga had once from one another. armies under different flags. In their struggle been the largest city of the Swedish realm. After the great dramatic and for once for dominium maris Baltici, to use the Poland had returned to the map of Eu- peaceful changes in Europe around 1990 classical phrase, nearly all the bordering rope but hardly in a manner that befit- also this eternity had come to its end. States have had their moment or moments ted this proud and creative nation. The Some people were busy talking of a re- of power and glory. But very little eternity. Nordic Countries Denmark, Norway, turn to conditions after World War I. But Sweden, Finland and Iceland were as split that soon proved to be a mistaken con- For those of us who came to geographi- in military orientation as if they had been clusion. For one thing the three Baltic cal and political maturity after 1945 the situated in the Balkans or in the Middle Republics got a much warmer interna- Baltic Sea was a moat in the Cold War. A East. The old truth that water unites tional reception now than in the 1920s. northwards prolongation of that Iron seemed to have been relegated to a mu- A bad conscience in the West certainly Curtain, whose most concrete expression seum of history. This to the detriment of played its part. So did Balts in exile. * Ambassador Torsten Orn (Sweden) is a former Head of the OSCE Mission to Latvia 7 Every period in history has its own II has been recognized by no less an author- Vergangenheitsbewältigung is impor- and partly very different challenges. So ity than Mikhail Gorbatchov. And we should tant. To master the past without negligence also this new period, which still hasnt certainly not forget the Singing Revolutions or nostalgia. West Germany has achieved a even got a proper name. in the Baltic States. Those who critically lot in this respect, East Germany consider- How do we define the Baltic Sea re- spoke about Finlandisierung, when try- ably less. Russia has hardly begun. This is gion? Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, ing to define Finlands skilful balancing act also important in the Baltic states when it Latvia and Lithuania in their entirety of between East and West, probably had no comes to Jews, Nazis and Soviets during course. But how much of Russia east of idea about what an attractive model such a the last century. It involves not only pro- Pskov and Novgorod? How much of Po- policy constituted for Balts and Poles. The fessional historians but practically every land south of Gdansk and Szczecin? Which Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Björn family. Was your beloved grandmother a German Länder apart from Mecklenburg Engholm, now began to talk about a New gallant partisan or an opportunistic fellow- Vorpommern and SchleswigHolstein? Hansa. What importance will future histo- traveller? Telling stories about the stupid- Should we not also for cultural and eco- ity of ones neighbours is one thing. Ra- rians attach to the fact that Vladimir Putin nomic reasons include Hamburg and Nor- cial persecution and ethnic cleansing is a is a native of St Petersburg rather than of way? The Nordic Iceland? Belarus? Some very different matter. the Ukraine, the Caucasus or Siberia? people would go as far as to include all After the fall of the Berlin wall there was Many things are needed to make this a land around the rivers flowing into the a general movement towards the West. Swe- better century than the last one for the in- Baltic Sea. This is not a matter for geogra- den and Finland wanted to become full phers only. It has a great bearing on the habitants of the Baltic Sea region. First of members of the EU, Poland left the Warsaw national agendas drawn up in Moscow, all mistrust and armaments must give way Pact, the Baltic states also left the Soviet Warsaw and Berlin. What importance do to hope and optimism. We must all realize Union. Membership of the EU and NATO the ruling circles in those capitals give to that we will grow much bigger, stronger was automatic for East Germany as part of developments in our region? and more beautiful if we cooperate with the German reunification, but the reunifi- Events in the Baltic Sea region were respect, of course, for each others cultural cation itself was not easy, neither economi- also important for the winding up of the identity and right to exist. Openness, toler- cally nor psychologically. Mental reunifica- Cold War. Lech Walesa and his shipyard ance and free trade are the roads to pros- tion may well take another generation. workers in Gdansk are already history. The perity and political structures which can Sweden and Finland entered the EU importance of the Polish Pope John Paul guarantee a more humane existence. in 1995, but unfortunately not Norway, 8 where a majority had voted no in 1994. the EU as Spain. Hopefully the northern organized international crime also requires Poland joined NATO in 1999 and will dimension of the EU will be more pro- joint efforts. Most of us didnt realize that join the EU next year. The Baltic states nounced after this enlargement. crime would be privatized before any- will join both next year. Much sooner Membership of the EU will probably also thing else. How much corruption can we than anybody had dared to think only a work as a useful tool, as a lever, to modern- tolerate in a state that claims to be demo- few years ago! ize the societies of the new members in a cratic? All these are serious threats to our This represented a tremendous effort western sense. Much would have happened societies, even if they are of different char- from the countries concerned. Other anyway, but now it will happen quicker. It acter compared to tanks and missiles. countries have assisted them in their own will probably be painful in certain sectors, It is important to remember that ev- enlightened self-interest. But the bulk ev- which have been spoiled by protection with- erything doesnt have to be done on in- erybody had to do by himself. From to- out competition. Governments must be able terstate levels. In Europe of the regions talitarian dictatorship and command to deliver the famous omelette rather soon much can be achieved transnationally by economy to pluralistic democracy and as explanation for the broken eggs, if they regions of various countries without in- want to survive politically. market economy is a long way. The course volving the national centres. Even more There is a great economic growth po- has been remarkably steady in spite of can be done by non-governmental institu- tential in a more intensified cooperation.