VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST AFRICA REGION CHAPTER 6: ENERGY, TRANSPORT, AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE FOR EAST AFRICA OCTOBER 2017 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD. This report was produced for review by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD, through USAID/Kenya and East Africa Contract No. AID-623-C-13-00003. Contributors: Francis Songela (Team Leader), Renewable Energy Specialist, Tanzania; Emmanuel Ekakoro, Forestry/Bioenergy Specialist, Kenya; Silas Ruzigana, Renewable Energy Specialist, Rwanda; Charles Baker, Economist, Uganda; Dr. Paul Wachana, Economist and Transportation Analyst; Prof. Francis Wambalaba, Economist and Transportation Planner, Kenya; Dr. Christopher Oludhe, Climate Scientist (Meteorologist, Kenya); Paul N. Mbuthi, Renewable Energy & Environment Planning Specialist, Kenya; Willis Owino Ochieng, Hydrologist and Renewable Energy Specialist, Kenya; Michael Muchiri, Civil Engineer, Kenya Tetra Tech ARD 159 Bank Street, Suite 300 Burlington, Vermont 05401 USA Tetra Tech ARD Contacts: Anna Farmer Korinne Nevins Project Manager Assistant Project Manager Tetra Tech Tetra Tech Burlington, Vermont Burlington, Vermont Tel.: (802) 495-0282 Tel.: (802) 495-0282 [email protected] [email protected] VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST AFRICA REGION CHAPTER 6: ENERGY, TRANSPORT, AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE FOR EAST AFRICA October 2017 DISCLAIMER This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. VIA Chapter 6: Energy and Infrastructure Baseline for East Africa 1 CONTENTS ACRONYMS....................................................................................................................................................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 6 1. ENERGY SECTOR ............................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.2 CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 11 1.2.1 Global .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 1.2.2 Africa ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 1.2.3 East Africa ....................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2.4 Lake Victoria Basin ....................................................................................................................................... 15 1.3 ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SECTOR IN THE EAST AFRICA PARTNER STATES................................................................ 17 1.3.1 Electricity Supply and Generation ............................................................................................................ 17 1.3.2 Biomass ........................................................................................................................................................... 20 1.3.3 Solar Energy ................................................................................................................................................... 26 1.3.4 Wind Power ................................................................................................................................................... 28 1.3.5 Geothermal Power....................................................................................................................................... 29 1.3.6 Oil and Gas..................................................................................................................................................... 30 1.3.7 Coal .................................................................................................................................................................. 30 1.3.8 Other Energy Sources ................................................................................................................................. 31 1.4 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON THE ENERGY SECTOR ..................................................... 31 1.4.1 Exposure ......................................................................................................................................................... 31 1.4.2 Sensitivity ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 1.4.3 Adaptive Capacity ......................................................................................................................................... 33 1.4.4 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................................... 34 1.4.5 Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Energy Sector ................................................... 38 2. TRANSPORT AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................. 55 2.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................... 55 2.2 CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 55 2.2.1 Global .............................................................................................................................................................. 55 2.2.2 Africa ................................................................................................................................................................ 56 2.2.3 East Africa ....................................................................................................................................................... 60 2.2.4 Lake Victoria Basin ....................................................................................................................................... 63 2.3 ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE EAST AFRICA PARTNER STATES............................................................................................................................................................................ 65 2.3.1 Surface Transport ......................................................................................................................................... 65 2.3.2 Water Transport .......................................................................................................................................... 69 2.3.3 Air Transport ................................................................................................................................................. 69 2.4 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE ......................................................................................................................................................... 70 2.4.1 Exposure ......................................................................................................................................................... 70 2.4.2 Sensitivity ........................................................................................................................................................ 71 2.4.3 Adaptive Capacity ......................................................................................................................................... 71 2.4.4 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................................... 72 2.4.5 Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Transport Sector and Associated Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................. 73 3. POLICY FRAMEWORK AND SECTOR PREPAREDNESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE .............. 80 3.1 ENERGY SECTOR ........................................................................................................................................................... 80 3.1.1 Regional Policies ............................................................................................................................................ 80 3.1.2 National Policies...........................................................................................................................................