What is Wrong with Extinction? Persson, Erik 2008 Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Persson, E. (2008). What is Wrong with Extinction?. Lund University. 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LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 Erik Persson What is Wrong with Extinction? Copyright © Erik Persson 2008 First Published 2008 Graphic design: Erik Persson & Gunilla Persson Printed by Media-Tryck, Lund 2008 ISBN 978-91-628-7652-4 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................................3 1.1. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE INVESTIGATION ...........................................................................3 1.2. THE INVESTIGATION ................................................................................................................................4 1.3. THE INTER-DISCIPLINARY CHARACTER OF THE INVESTIGATION............................................................6 1.4. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................8 2. ANTHROPOCENTRIC INSTRUMENTALISM....................................................................................9 2.1. THE STANDARD ANSWER .........................................................................................................................9 2.2. THE RIGHT ANSWER? .............................................................................................................................11 2.3. SOME FORMS OF INSTRUMENTAL VALUE OF NON-HUMAN SPECIES FOR HUMAN BEINGS ...................12 2.3.1. Food...............................................................................................................................................12 2.3.2. Medicine ........................................................................................................................................16 2.3.3. Materials and fuel.........................................................................................................................17 2.3.4. Indicators.......................................................................................................................................24 2.3.5. Some non-destructive uses............................................................................................................24 2.3.6. Tourism..........................................................................................................................................27 2.4. TRADE OFF .............................................................................................................................................30 2.5. CHOICE VALUE.......................................................................................................................................36 2.6. TRANSFORMATIVE VALUE.....................................................................................................................40 2.7. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ...........................................................................................................................45 3. UNCERTAINTY .........................................................................................................................................54 3.1. BIODIVERSITY AND UNCERTAINTY .......................................................................................................54 3.2. DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY ..............................................................................................................59 3.3. THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE .........................................................................................................61 3.3.1. Promoting the positive versus avoiding the negative .................................................................63 3.3.2. Irreversibility.................................................................................................................................65 3.3.3. The value of human health ...........................................................................................................70 3.3.4. The cost of being late....................................................................................................................72 3.3.5. False positives versus false negatives .........................................................................................74 3.3.6. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................77 3.4. PROBLEMS WITH THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE ..............................................................................77 3.4.1. Is the precautionary principle ill defined? ..................................................................................78 3.4.2. Is the precautionary principle anti-science?...............................................................................79 3.4.3. Values instead of science..............................................................................................................81 3.4.4. Favouring the status quo ..............................................................................................................83 3.4.5. Ignoring other risks ......................................................................................................................85 3.4.6. Does the precautionary principle lure us into a paradox? ........................................................90 3.4.7. How do we prove a negative? ......................................................................................................91 3.5. WHAT CAN THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE DO FOR US? ...................................................................92 4. FUTURE GENERATIONS .......................................................................................................................95 4.1. THE ASYMMETRY PROBLEM ..................................................................................................................96 4.1.1 The auditorium dilemma................................................................................................................96 4.1.2 Contractualism...............................................................................................................................97 4.1.3. The veil of ignorance ....................................................................................................................99 4.1.4. Communitarianism......................................................................................................................104 4.2. THE NON-IDENTITY PROBLEM .............................................................................................................106 4.2.1. How it is handled by Thomas Schwartz.....................................................................................107 4.2.2. How it is handled by Derek Parfit .............................................................................................109 4.3. THE PROBLEM OF OVERWHELMING SACRIFICE ...................................................................................114 4.4. MENTAL IMPOSSIBILITY ......................................................................................................................118 4.5. UNCERTAINTY......................................................................................................................................119 4.6. DEMOCRACY ........................................................................................................................................122 1 4.7. LOSS OF OPPORTUNITY VALUE ............................................................................................................123 4.8. DISTANCE.............................................................................................................................................125 4.9. WILL THEY NEED OUR SACRIFICES?....................................................................................................127 4.10. CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................................131 5. SOMETHING IS LACKING..................................................................................................................132 6. ECOCENTRISM.......................................................................................................................................134