NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green Background Paper No 1/05 RELATED PUBLICATIONS • 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Draft Boundaries by Antony Green Background Paper 4/04 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1773 4 January 2005 © 2005 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager ..............................................(02) 9230 2484 Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law..........................(02) 9230 2356 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Law.......................(02) 9230 2768 Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law ........................(02) 9230 2003 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Research Officer, Law....................................(02) 9230 3085 Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment ...(02) 9230 2798 John Wilkinson (MA, PhD), Research Officer, Economics .......................(02) 9230 2006 Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/WEB_FEED/PHWebContent.nsf/PHPages/LibraryPublicati 2004 NEW SOUTH WALES REDISTRIBUTION: ANALYSIS OF FINAL BOUNDARIES CONTENTS PAGE Summary of Political Consequences 1 Introduction 3 New electoral pendulum 7 Summary of Changes to Electorates 8 Summary of Party Vote for new Electorates 11 Full listing for new Electorates 30 Estimated 2-candidate Preferred Margins 71 Transfers of old electorate enrolments 73 Votes counted at 2003 Election as a proportion of enrolment in October 2003 77 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, and has worked for the ABC on every state, territory and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony produces regular publications on electoral matters for the NSW Parliamentary Library, and has also prepared publications for other state Parliamentary Libraries. Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party DEM Australian Democrats GRN The Greens IND Independents LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party ONP One Nation NSW OTH Others UNI Unity Comments and Feedback This publication has been prepared with reference to the electoral maps made available by the Electoral Districts Commission. However, without access to registered voter lists indicating where people cast their vote, and given the scale on some maps, re-allocating booths to new electorates is an imprecise science, especially where booths have to be split. Comments and suggestions on the transfer of polling places is most welcome. Messages can be e-mailed to me at [email protected]. 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) SUMMARY OF POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES The redistribution sees the abolition of Lachlan west of the mountains and the creation of Wollondilly, a new outer-metropolitan seat on Sydney’s south-west fringe. The shift towards Sydney created by this change sees the electorate of Southern Highlands abolished, but a seat called Goulburn re-created from parts of Burrinjuck and Southern Highlands. The National party lose a seat with abolition of Lachlan, but notionally gain the seat of Murray-Darling, which on the new boundaries is changed from a Labor seat with a 6.7% margin to a National Party seat with a margin of 1.4%. A similar political change occurred at the two previous redistributions, but on neither occasion did the National Party win the seat at the subsequent election. After the 1990/91 redistribution, new boundaries for Broken Hill gave the seat a notional National Party majority, but the seat was won by Labor at the 1991 state election. After the 1997/98 redistribution, the new seat of Murray- Darling had a notional National Party majority, but the seat was won by Labor at the 1999 election. Labor loses Murray-Darling based on the new boundaries, but 2003 election results indicate that the new seat of Wollondilly is a notional Labor seat. With the number of seats held by each party remaining unchanged, the Coalition still need to gain 9 seats from Labor to deprive the government of its majority, and gain 12 seats from Labor to have more seats in the Legislative Assembly. Overall the Coalition need to gain 15 seats to form majority government, with some of those seats needing to be gained from Independents. To gain 9 seats, the Coalition needed a 9.1% swing on the old boundaries compared to 8.7% on the new boundaries. A gain of 12 seats needed a 9.6% swing on the old boundaries and 9.7% on the new boundaries. This suggests the new boundaries have had little impact on the chances of the Coalition winning the next election. Labor’s position has been significantly strengthened in Camden 8.7% (up from 5.4%), Cessnock 19.1% (15.5%) and Heathcote 12.3% (8.7%). Labor’s position is weakened in Kiama 8.3% (down from 16.9%), Lake Macquarie 11.6% (14.5%) and Londonderry 10.9% (15.3%). Labor’s position is also slightly strengthened it its two most marginal seats, Monaro 4.4% (up from 3.3%) and Tweed 4.0% (3.8%). The National Party’s position is strengthened in Burrinjuck 12.4% (up from 4.1%) and Clarence 5.3% (1.6%). The position is weakened in Lismore 8.1% (down from 12.8%). The re-creation of Goulburn has the potential to create a dispute between the Liberal and National Parties. This occurred with changes to electorates around Goulburn at the two previous redistributions. There has been a re-arrangement of boundaries on the Central Coast, resulting in the old Labor-held electorate of Peats being re-named Gosford, while the seat previously known as Gosford is now called Terrigal and has a notional Liberal majority. This results in the electorate named Gosford switching from Liberal to Labor, but this is balanced by the abolition of Peats and creation of Terrigal. Other changes to electorate names include Balmain (previously Port Jackson), Castle Hill (The Hills), Oatley (Georges River), Shellharbour (Illawarra), Sydney (Bligh) and Toongabbie (Wentworthville). Of the six Independent held seats, Manly, Tamworth, Port Macquarie and Northern Tablelands see only minor change. Bligh is re-named Sydney but the position of sitting Independent MP Clover Moore does not appear to be weakened. Dubbo has had significant change, losing Wellington and gaining Forbes, making it hard to calculate a new margin. This publication does not take into account the result of the Dubbo by- election. 1 2 2004 NSW Redistribution (Final boundaries) INTRODUCTION This publication contains estimates of the political impact of the finalised New South Wales state electoral boundaries, released by the Electoral Districts Commission on 21 December 2004. This publication updates and replaces estimates based on draft boundaries, published as Parliamentary Library Research Service Background Paper No. 4/04. Estimates of new margins have been calculated by re-assigning votes from the 2003 state election to match the new electoral boundaries. The following notes provide an explanation of how the results have been re-calculated as well as how to read the tables provided. A Caution on Using New Boundary Estimates Moving votes to new electorates is based on the assumption that votes were cast for parties rather than candidates. This is a reasonable assumption as long as it does not forget that a high profile candidate in a particular electorate can increase the vote for a party. There are also special difficulties with Independent candidates, where it is almost impossible to calculate their level of support in areas added to an electorate. While I have made some attempt to do this with the tables beginning on page 71, these calculations are highly speculative. Re-allocating votes to new boundaries also overlooks the varying level of intensity in party campaigning from electorate to electorate. For instance, in the new electorate of Murray- Darling, the Labor Party vote is likely to be higher in booths from the old Murray-Darling, where the Labor Party ran an active campaign, than in the booths transferred from the safe National seat of Murrumbidgee, where the Labor Party’s campaign was more subdued. Above all, the re-calculated figures should not be viewed as predictions of future results, or even past outcomes. On the calculations in this paper, it appears the number of seats held by all parties remains unchanged on the new boundaries compared to the 2003 election result. This is a reasonable observation, but cannot be asserted as a fact, as it overlooks the candidate and campaign intensity factors noted in the previous paragraphs. The next election will be decided by the relative level of support for candidates and parties at the time of the next election, and by the campaign fought on the new boundaries. Re- calculating the results of the 2003 election to match the new boundaries merely provides a guide to the key marginal seats where the next election is likely to be decided. A note on Two-Candidate Preferred Counts at the 2003 Election To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences.