How can speed enforcement be made more effective? An investigation into the effect of police presence, speed awareness training and roadside publicity on drivers’ choice of speed Aswin Azhar Siregar, SIK, M.Si., M.Sc. (Eng.) Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds Institute for Transport Studies June 2018 i The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his/her own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyrighted material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Aswin Azhar Siregar to be identified as the Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2018 The University of Leeds and Aswin Azhar Siregar ii Acknowledgements This thesis is for Indonesia, the Indonesian National Police (INP) and the police officers around the world who never tired of maintaining law and order on the roads, as beacons of safety. This work is indebted to a number of people. First, I gratefully acknowledge the constant guidance of my supervisors: Prof. Oliver Carsten, Dr. Frank Lai, and Dr. Ruth Madigan. I would like to thank Dr. Daryl Hibberd for invaluable suggestions on the first-year report of this thesis. My thanks also go to the Chief of Indonesian National Police Traffic Corps (INPTC), Irjen Pol. Drs. Royke Lumowa, M.M., Dr. Tri Tjahyono from the University of Indonesia, as well as Mr. Naufal Yahya, MSc (Eng) ITS Alumni, who gave me support, suggestions and encouragement on my PhD. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the Indonesian National Police for their administrative and financial support, without which I could not have undertaken this study. I am especially thankful to my wife Dahliana, my son Al Fatah Fathoni Siregar, my daughters Aire Lydia Siregar and Amira Cahaya Siregar, and my parents—particularly my late father Alm. Syawal Siregar, who passed away during my field work stage, January 2016—for their continuous love, understanding, inspiration, and care during these four years of my study. Many people have contributed their time in participating to surveys and carrying out test- drive, without their contribution, this study could not have been carried out. This includes all the INPTC staff and members of the public for their supports in supporting the study from the beginning until the completion of this report. Finally, I would like to thank all Master’s and Research students in ITS, Leeds University for sharing and exchanging ideas which have been very useful to the accomplishment of my research. iii Abstract The effectiveness of police strategy in influencing motorists’ choice of speed must be questioned because speeding has remained a consistent factor in accidents to this day. In light of this persistence, the objective of this research is to develop more effective speed enforcement by investigating the effects of police presence, motorists’ training, and roadside publicity on motorists’ choice of speed. These factors are the most widespread interventions implemented by police all over the world, although only few have investigated how effective these interventions in fact are either as a single or as a combined intervention. This study was conducted in Indonesian road and applied a factorial experiment design where police, training and publicity were operated as the intervention factors. Participants’ responses were recorded during driving throughout prearranged test routes. Further, a traffic survey and questionnaires for motorists and police officers were utilized to support the study’s results. A survey of motorists shows that they are aware of the consequences of speeding, although prefer softer approaches to handle it, while a survey of police forces shows a high level of satisfaction for existing measures, including the new proposed speed enforcement program. There are still many aspects yet undiscovered that correlate to public attitude and police officer job satisfaction to current speed enforcement methods. One important finding of this research is the discovery of a three-way interaction effect on dual carriageways, which means that the addition of training and publicity to police interventions increases the effectiveness of speed enforcement. However, on single carriageways, the only significant effect was produced by police presence. The combination of three factors not only reduced mean speed by 14% and 10% on dual and single carriageways respectively, but also increased compliance by 72% and 33% until the end of test route. The estimated fatal casualty reductions are 52% and 33% for single and dual carriageways. Surprisingly, the training as single factor has increased travel speeds on dual carriageways, although the effect has changed drastically when combined with police and roadside publicity. This finding could only be justified by the fact that training increase motorists’ confidence. Thus, we need guidance to avoid the confidence bias. Also, different distances of Halo effect were observed on both routes in relation to combination of intervention applied. Finally, the result shows that there is potential for further development of speed enforcement programs by combining training and roadside publicity into police enforcement. In addition, this study also proposes a number of policies so that enforcement agencies can increase the effectiveness police enforcement. iv List of abbreviations ANOVA Analysis of Variance BPS Biro Pusat Statistik (Indonesian Office of National Statistic) CI Confidence Interval DC60 Dual Carriageway 60 km/h DF Degree of Freedom DfT Department for Transport DOA Decade of Action ECMT European Conference of Ministers of Transport EINRIP Eastern Indonesia National Road Improvement Project GPS Global Positioning System GRSP Global Road Safety Partnership HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle INPTC Indonesian National Police Traffic Corps IQR Inter Quartile Range IRSMS Indonesian Road Safety Management System IRSP Indonesian Road Safety Plan ITERATE Information Technology for Error Remediation and Trapping Emergencies KSI Killed or Seriously Injured LGV Large Goods Vehicle LMIC Low and Middle-Income Countries OECD Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development PAQ Public Attitude Questionnaire PCU Passenger Car Unit PSQ Police Job Satisfaction Questionnaire PTA Proportion of Travel Time Above Speed Limit RAC Royal Automobile Club RoSPA Royal Society for The Prevention of Accidents SC50 Single Carriageway 50 km/h SD Standard Deviation SEARO South East Asian Regional Office Seg. Segment of test route TRL Transport Research Laboratory WHO World Health Organization v Table of Contents Chapter 1 Motivation and background for the study ...................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Motivation for the research ................................................................................ 1 1.3 Background ......................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Problem statement ............................................................................................. 8 1.5 Aims and objectives ............................................................................................ 9 1.6 Scope and limitations of study ............................................................................ 9 1.7 Structure of the report ..................................................................................... 10 Chapter 2 Overview of Indonesian road safety ............................................................. 12 2.1 General road safety performance ..................................................................... 12 2.2 Road casualty statistics ..................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Road user factors ............................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Vehicle factors ................................................................................... 18 2.2.3 Road and environmental factor ......................................................... 20 2.3 Indonesian road traffic: the motorcycle safety issue ........................................ 22 2.3.1 Vehicle growth and proportion of traffic ........................................... 22 2.3.2 Motorcycles as vulnerable road users ............................................... 24 2.3.3 Motorcyclists’ choice of speed .......................................................... 26 2.4 Ineffectiveness of speed enforcement ............................................................. 27 2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 28 Chapter 3 Literature Review ........................................................................................ 30 3.1 The choice of speed .......................................................................................... 30 3.1.1 The factors that influence drivers’ choice of speed ........................... 31 3.1.2 Speed management and its effect on speed choice .......................... 34 3.2 Speed and risk of accident ................................................................................ 37 3.3