The Fifty-First State? A Legal, Economic, and Political Investigation on Puerto Rico’s Political Status. Emily Rae Foreman Readers: Lucy Goodhart, Kerry Chase, and Alejandro Trelles Brandeis University, International and Global Studies | 2020 Foreman 1 Table of Content Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 2 Historical Background ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter One: Literature and the Legal Arguments ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. From the Puerto Rican Perspective ....................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. From the U.S. Federal Perspective ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Arguments against the Validity of Puerto Rico’s Status ................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Look not to the Courts, But to Congress ......................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Reflecting on the Legal Arguments ................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Chapter Two: Economic Overview and Arguments for Statehood .................................................................... 21 GDP per capita and the Gini Coefficient .......................................................................................................... 22 Taxation ............................................................................................................................................................ 26 Federal Programs ............................................................................................................................................. 30 Medicaid ...................................................................................................................................................... 31 Federal Emergency Relief ........................................................................................................................... 32 Chapter Takeaways ........................................................................................................................................... 34 Chapter Three: The Voters Voice – Puerto Rican Political Trends ................................................................... 36 Political Parties in Puerto Rico ......................................................................................................................... 36 Voter Trends ..................................................................................................................................................... 40 The Plebiscites .................................................................................................................................................. 47 Reactions and Proposed Legislation ................................................................................................................. 52 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................... 63 Foreman 2 Introduction Puerto Rico is one of five inhabited U.S. Unincorporated Territories, territories held under the sole power of U.S. Congress, with only partial application of the U.S. Constitution. The fate of Puerto Rico’s political status is now up for debate, as scholars argue over the legality of the status itself, the economy enters crisis, hurricanes exemplify discriminatory FEMA response, and legislation which would make Puerto Rico the fifty-first state is proposed in Congress. Yet in all of this existing debate there is a notable absence – there is a lack of discussion on what Puerto Rican voters themselves want. This thesis will focus on the following research question: what are the legal and economic implications of Puerto Rico’s current political status and have Puerto Rican voters demonstrated a desire to change this status, potentially in favor of statehood? This question has evolved out of not only personal passion and interest, but after I found a notable lack of academic literature which investigates the political opinions of Puerto Ricans. I was shocked to find a sizeable body of literature which took a paternalistic approach in trying to determine if statehood would be better for the Puerto Rican people, without considering their stance on the issue. Instead, I hope to demonstrate how opinions on status have developed within Puerto Rico over time. The importance of this topic is not quantifiable, as the political status of Puerto Rico has real day-to-day effects on the lives of Puerto Ricans. Before the primary research and investigation in this paper begins, historical background is given to inform the readers on what exactly Puerto Rico’s current political status is and how it was created. The first chapter of this thesis focuses on the existing literature and the discourse surrounding the legality of Puerto Rico status, written largely from a U.S. perspective due to a notable lack of Puerto Rican perspectives in the current literature. The limited literature that is Foreman 3 written with Puerto Rican perspectives in mind demonstrates how the issue of political status is important on the island and how Puerto Rican voters have been politically disenfranchised and may seek status change. The literature written form the U.S. perspective is the starting point for understanding how the topic has been approached in American academia. This literature is focused on the normative debate as to whether Puerto Rico’s status is legal and constitutional. It is worth reviewing this literature as it not only reveals the American existing approach to Puerto Rico’s status, but it also discusses how that status could be changed in the future. Furthermore, a review of the academic literature reveals the absence of research done directly concerning Puerto Rican opinion on status – an absence which this paper hopes to address. The second chapter gives a current economic overview and discusses how Puerto Rico’s economy is affected both indirectly and directly by its political status. The analysis of economic indicators and ramifications of the current political status show how statehood may be beneficial to Puerto Rico and the population living there. Understanding the economic impacts contextualizes the reality lived by Puerto Ricans and explains why, due to overall economic hardships compounded with a debt crisis, economic crash, and Hurricane Maria, some may seek alternative statuses such as statehood. Finally, through my own primary source research on voting records in Puerto Rico, we see how voter trends have shifted from 2000 to 2016, notably in favor of statehood as a political status option. This is shown through my research tracking what number of legislative seats and gubernatorial victories in the last two decades have been shared between the main political parties, each of which has a platform specifically centered around a different political status: statehood, current Commonwealth status, or independence. The trend towards favoritism of Foreman 4 statehood as a political status is also seen by analyzing plebiscites1 held in 2012 and 2017, which poll the Puerto Rican public directly on their preference on statehood. Lastly, I evaluate legislation introduced in reaction to those plebiscites to see how the U.S. Congress has pushed for, or declined to pursue, statehood for Puerto Rico. This last chapter of research uses the best proxy variable we are given (namely the voting record) to show Puerto Rican voters’ support of Puerto Rico becoming the fifty-first state in the union. It is not within the scope of this research to say whether Puerto Rico’s political status is illegal or unconstitutional, or to suggest that we may know definitively if Puerto Rico’s economy would be stronger if it were a state. Rather, this thesis will identify factors which may lead Puerto Rican voters to view the current status less favorably, before ultimately conducting primary research on voter trends. The work conducted here was not done with the intention of creating a normative statement. It was not pursued to create the argument that I, as a white American researcher, believe that I know what is best for the Puerto Rican people and the territory’s political status. Instead, the primary research was done to identify whether Puerto Rican voters themselves have demonstrated the desire to change the political status and the contextual legal and economic factors which may inform this desire. 1 Plebiscite: a non-binding public vote. Foreman 5 Historical Background On December 10th, 1898, the Treaty of Paris was signed and the Spanish-American War of 1898 officially ended. Though the war lasted only three weeks in total, the consequences of these pen strokes in history are still felt in the lives of those inhabiting the territories that were ceded to the U.S. Through the Treaty of Paris, Spain formally relinquished sovereignty over Cuba and ceded political power over Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines over