Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Annex II Feasibility Study Safeguarding communities and their physical assets from climate induced disasters in Timor Leste Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 2. Climate risk profile of Timor Leste .......................................................................................... 3 2.1 Geographical Context ........................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Climate .................................................................................................................................. 4 2.3 Socio-economic conditions overview .................................................................................... 5 2.4 Main socio-economic indicators ............................................................................................ 6 2. 5 Incomes, assets and poverty ............................................................................................... 8 2.6 Non-petroleum Sub-Sectors .................................................................................................. 8 2.7 Geographic isolation and public services: water supply, irrigation, connecting roads and bridges. ...................................................................................................................................... 10 2.8 Climate change in Timor Leste ........................................................................................... 15 2.8.1 Expected Climate Change ........................................................................................... 15 2.8.2 Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................. 34 2.8.3 Impact on Water Resources ........................................................................................ 34 2.8.4 Impact on Soil Erosion ................................................................................................. 34 2.8.5 Impact on Agriculture ................................................................................................... 34 2.8.6 Impact on coast ............................................................................................................ 36 2.8.7 Impact on infrastructure ............................................................................................... 36 2.8.8 Exposure to climate-induced natural hazards ............................................................. 39 2.8.9 Exposure to High/Very High Hydro-meteorological hazards ....................................... 41 2.9 Socio-economic risk assessment ........................................................................................ 44 2.10 Prioritization of municipalities for intervention ................................................................... 58 3. The most vulnerable municipalities and sucos ..................................................................... 59 3.1 Underlying causes of vulnerability ....................................................................................... 59 3.2 Livelihood pressures on land: land use, deforestation due to logging and fuelwood. ........ 60 3.3 Livelihood pressures and financial vulnerability .................................................................. 61 3.4 Exposure to hazards: threats to lives and assets ............................................................... 63 3.5 Gender issues and vulnerability of other social groups (ethnic minorities) ......................... 68 4. Status of current government policies, programmes and investments to address infrastructure deficiencies and community resilience; ................................................................... 71 4.1 INDC (relevant priorities) ..................................................................................................... 71 4.2 NAPA ................................................................................................................................... 72 4.3 Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030 (SDP): ................................................................. 73 4.4 Other government strategies and policies .......................................................................... 73 4.5 Relevant Forestry Policies and laws ................................................................................... 81 5. Government Institutional arrangements and capacity for DRR and CCA ............................ 88 Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I 6. Institutional Arrangements and capacity in Infrastructure Development .............................. 93 6.1 Main investment programmes (both planned and under implementation) in large and small- scale infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 93 6.2 International Climate resilience projects ........................................................................... 95 6.3 Capacity Assessment of Government ................................................................................. 96 7. Main baseline programmes in agroforestry ........................................................................ 104 7.1 Review of Agroforestry Sector .......................................................................................... 104 7.2 Government-led Agroforestry Interventions ...................................................................... 104 7.3 Non-Government-led Agroforestry Interventions .............................................................. 104 7.4 Other relevant projects and initiatives ............................................................................... 106 8. Good practices, field evidence and lessons for scale-up ................................................... 109 8.1 Strengthening the Resilience of Small Scale Rural Infrastructure (SSRI) and Local Governance Systems to Climate Variability and Risks ........................................................... 109 8.2 Background ....................................................................................................................... 109 8.3 Main project objectives: ..................................................................................................... 109 8.4 Expected Project Outcomes .............................................................................................. 110 8.5 Description of project implementation ............................................................................... 110 8.6 Water Supply Systems ...................................................................................................... 112 8.7 Rural access roads and bridges....................................................................................... 122 8.8 Reservoirs and Irrigation systems .................................................................................... 129 8.9 River Embankments/flood defences ................................................................................ 133 8.10 Some Lessons Learned .................................................................................................. 134 8.11 Project Current and Potential Impacts ............................................................................ 135 9. Gaps, barriers and needs for scaling up good practices for transformative change .......... 137 9.1 Policy and Legislation ....................................................................................................... 137 9.2 Technical Capacity – National Institutions ........................................................................ 137 9.3 Technical Capacity – Sub-national Institutions ................................................................. 138 9.4 Financial Capacity ............................................................................................................. 139 9.5 Theory of Change.............................................................................................................. 142 9.6 Project Logical Framework ................................................................................................ 147 10. Proposed interventions towards achieving resilience of communities and safeguarding their physical and economic assets in the face of climate change ...................................................... 156 10.1 Project objective, outputs and impacts ........................................................................... 156 10.2 Proposed GCF Project Outputs ...................................................................................... 156 11. technical Feasibility and approaches of proposed interventions ........................................... 171 11.1 Proposed Multi-hazard, risk and vulnerability mapping methodology ............................. 171 11.2 Risk and Vulnerability Modelling and Mapping ............................................................... 184 11.3 Detailed Data Requirements ........................................................................................... 186 11.4 Economic Loss and Damages