OIL FEDERALISM IN IRAQ: RESOURCE CURSE, PATRONAGE NETWORKS AND STABILITY. CASE STUDIES OF BAGHDAD, KURDISTAN AND THE ADVENT OF ISIS By Bilal A. Wahab A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy Committee: _______________________________________ Louise I. Shelley, Chair _______________________________________ Janine R. Wedel _______________________________________ Jack A. Goldstone Jean-Francois Seznec, External Reader _______________________________________ Kenneth J. Button, Program Director _______________________________________ Mark J. Rozell, Dean Date: __________________________________ Spring Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Oil Federalism In Iraq: Resource Curse, Patronage Networks and Stability. Case Studies of Baghdad, Kurdistan and the Advent of ISIS A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Bilal A. Wahab Master of Arts The American University, 2007 Director: Louise I. Shelley, Professor School of Policy, Government and International Affairs Spring Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA This work is licensed under a creative commons attribution-noderivs 3.0 unported license. ii DEDICATION To my inspiring parents. To my loving wife Guli, and our wonderful daughters, Banu and Besha iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank Allah Almighty, whose book commences with the command, “Read;” and his prophet, who taught me at a young age to “seek knowledge from the cradle to the grave.” I would like to thank the many friends and supporters who helped make this dissertation possible. My loving wife Guli has always been there for me, supporting and encouraging me throughout. I also thank my parents for their prayers and the values they instilled in me. I especially thank Khala Hemin for always being there for me. My heartfelt thanks go to Mohammad Abubakir and Vance Serchuk for being exceptionally supportive friends and acting as sounding boards for the ideas developed in this work. Special thanks go to Dr. Louise Shelley, who has been my academic mentor for a decade. I also very much thank my dissertation committee members, Dr. Janine Wedel, Dr. Jack Goldstone and Dr. Jean-Francois Seznec, each of whom helped me see the world from a unique angle. Finally, I thank the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS) for offering its institutional support to me while researching for this dissertation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables.................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................... x List of Abbreviations .....................................................................................................xii Abstract...........................................................................................................................xiii Chapter 1: Iraq’s Petroleum Policy and Transition since 2003. Goals and Context of the Study....................................................................................................................... 1 Goals of the Study ........................................................................................................ 5 Political Transition and Petrofederalism.................................................................. 8 The Case Study Method......................................................................................... 11 Oil: The Centerpiece of Iraq’s Modern History ..................................................... 11 Border Delineation and Ethnosectarian Grievances.......................................... 12 The Return of International Oil Companies ....................................................... 15 Developing Iraq’s Petroleum Sector: Challenges and Constraints ..................... 16 Deepening Dependence on Oil............................................................................. 17 Geography and Infrastructure.............................................................................. 18 Corruption and Criminality.................................................................................. 19 The Absence of Petroleum Policy Framework ................................................... 23 Iraq’s Resilient Legacy of Power, Patronage and Corruption ............................. 26 Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party’s: Rule through Cooptation, Coercion and Corruption ....................................................................................................... 29 Sanction Busting and Oil Smuggling: United Nations’ Oil-for-Food Program ................................................................................................................................... 34 Power, Patronage and Corruption in post-Saddam Iraq...................................... 40 Iraq’s Corruption-Prone Environment ................................................................ 42 Corruption under Foreign Rule: Exacerbating the Saddam Legacy ............... 50 v Summary of the Next Chapters................................................................................ 54 Chapter 2: Review of the Literature ........................................................................... 56 Countries in Transition.............................................................................................. 56 Corruption................................................................................................................... 62 Categories and Impacts of Corruption ................................................................ 64 Patronage Networks .................................................................................................. 67 Elections ................................................................................................................... 68 A Benign Alternative.............................................................................................. 69 Influence on the State............................................................................................. 70 Eluding Accountability.......................................................................................... 71 The Resource Curse Thesis ....................................................................................... 71 Lagging and Unstable Economic Growth........................................................... 74 Institutions and Governance................................................................................. 76 Inter- and Intrastate Conflicts ............................................................................... 78 Regime Type and Authoritarianism .................................................................... 81 Anti-Resource Curse Policies................................................................................ 83 Contributions to the Literature and Policy............................................................. 84 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology ........................................................ 89 Research Questions and Propositions ..................................................................... 90 Research Design and Methods ................................................................................. 97 Case Study Design.................................................................................................. 97 Case Selection.......................................................................................................... 99 Data and Methods of Collection......................................................................... 102 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................ 111 Chapter 4: Federalism and Policy Fragmentation of the Iraq’s Petroleum Sector ......................................................................................................................................... 114 Iraq’s Petroleum Policy Framework...................................................................... 114 Centralization vs. Decentralization, Public vs. Private Management........... 116 The Iraqi Constitution and the Introduction of Federalism ........................... 121 Federalism, Petroleum Resources and Constitutional Ambiguities................. 123 Petroleum Legislation.............................................................................................. 126 vi Iraq’s Federal Hydrocarbon Legislation............................................................ 127 KRG Legislation.................................................................................................... 132 Competence to Sign Oil Contracts......................................................................... 136 Contract Models ....................................................................................................... 141 Oil Export and Monetization Infrastructure ........................................................ 150 KRG’s Exports ....................................................................................................... 153 Chapter 5: Petroleum Politics: Actors, Conflicts and Influence ........................... 159 Policy and Politics of Petroleum Management: Actors and Goals ..................