TunisianTunisian NationalNational InstituteInstitute ofof MeteorologyMeteorology ALADINALADIN ForecastersForecasters MeetingMeeting ALADINALADIN experienceexperience withwith convectiveconvective situationssituations KhaoulaKhaoula MelkiMelki EngineerEngineer ofof meteorologymeteorology 21-23 October 2015, Lisbon 1 PlanPlan IntroductionIntroduction Experiences:Experiences: MissedMissed situationsituation byby AladinAladin modelmodel ChallengesChallenges ExpectationsExpectations 2 IntroductionIntroduction GeographicalGeographical distributiondistribution inin TunisiaTunisia 3 4 IntroductionIntroduction TunisianTunisian ClimateClimate 5 6 IntroductionIntroduction AvailablesAvailables modelsmodels usedused inin forecastingforecasting weatherweather 7 ARPEGEARPEGE ThereThere areare threethree versionsversions ofof ARPEGEARPEGE modelmodel availablesavailables onon SYNERGIESYNERGIE station.station. TheThe mostmost ussefulusseful versionversion isis ArpegeArpege 0.50.5 withwith 5050 kilometerskilometers ofof resolution.resolution. ItIt offersoffers severalseveral parametersparameters moremore thanthan othersothers modelsmodels likelike ALADINALADIN oror CEPCEP occurredoccurred onon SYNERGIESYNERGIE station.station. 8 ToolsTools onon ARPEGEARPEGE 9 ALADINALADIN TUNISIATUNISIA ThisThis modelmodel hashas beenbeen declareddeclared operationaloperational onon 2323 MarsMars 20042004.. ItIt offersoffers mostlymostly thethe samesame parametersparameters showedshowed onon ArpegeArpege withwith aa resolutionresolution ofof 12.512.5 km.km. 10 UserUser InterfaceInterface ofof ALADINALADIN 11 ExperiencesExperiences ConvectiveConvective situationsituation ofof 0303 SeptemberSeptember 20132013 Violent Thunderstorm in Gafsa. Among the phenomena: Vindspeed reaching 83 km/h in Kebili, 94 km/h in Gafsa, 115 km/h in Jerba,108 km/h in Sfax, 86 km/h in Monastir, Sandstorm in Tozeur and Kebili 30 mm in 3h in Gafsa and 30 mm in Jerba of which 22 mm in 10 mn, 23 mm in 3h in Kebili, 21 mm in 3 h in Tozeur, 20 mm in Sidi Bouzid of which 8 mm in 3 mn, 40 mm in Mahdia, 20 mm in Kairouan, 45 mm in Zaghouan Fall of hail in places ( forcasted and not observed) Source du photo:http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/18340-tunisie -meteorologie-et-climatologie/page-134 12 13 AccumulatedAccumulated precipitationprecipitation forfor 2424 hourshours forecastedforecasted byby ARPEGEARPEGE andand ALADINALADIN ModelsModels *30 mm in 3h in Gafsa *30 mm in Jerba of which 22 mm in 10 mn i *23 mm in 3h in Kebili, *21 mm in 3 h in Tozeur *20 mm in Sidi Bouzid of which 8 mm in 3 mn, *40 mm in Mahdia, *20 mm in Kairouan, *45 mm in Zaghouan 14 PP (sea(sea level)+Wind(10level)+Wind(10 m)+Tm)+T (850(850 hPa)hPa) 15 Z+T+HUZ+T+HU (500(500 hPa)hPa) ++ JetJet 1.51.5 PVUPVU (50(50 kt)kt) 16 ConvectiveConvective situationsituation ofof 1818 AugustAugust 20152015 47 mm in Zaghouan of which 32 mm accumulated in 40 min 27 mm in Siliana of which 18 mm recorded in 10 min, 24 mm in Ain Drahem 22 mm in Kairouan of which 10 mm rained in 8 min 18 mm in Ennfidha Sousse 15 mm in Haouria wind speed observed is 90 km/h in Siliana, 86 km/h in Monastir, 72 km/h in Kasserine, 97.2 km/h in Tozeur , 79.2 km/h in Kebili, Source photo:http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/18340-tunisie-meteorologie -et-climatologie/page-169 17 18 AccumulatedAccumulated precipitationprecipitation forecastedforecasted byby ARPEGEARPEGE andand ALADINALADIN ModelsModels 27 mm in Siliana 47 mm in Zaghouan 24 mm in Ain Drahem 22 mm in Kairouan 18 mm in Ennfidha Sousse 15 mm in Haouria (Nabeul) 16 mm in Jerba 30 mm in Gafsa 22 mm in Kairouan 19 P(seaP(sea level)+Windlevel)+Wind (10(10 m)+Tm)+T (850(850 hPa)hPa) 20 Z+T(500)Z+T(500) +HU+HU (700(700 hPa)hPa) ++ JetJet 1.51.5 PVUPVU (seuil(seuil 5050 kt)kt) 21 CHALLENGESCHALLENGES WeWe useuse praticlypraticly 33 modelsmodels :: -- ARPEGEARPEGE toto elaborateelaborate short-termshort-term forecasts.forecasts. -- ALADINALADIN toto confirmconfirm oror havehave moremore detailsdetails inin ourour forecasts.forecasts. -- ECMWFECMWF toto prepareprepare medium-termmedium-term forecasts.forecasts. WeWe useuse alsoalso GFSGFS andand WRFWRF fromfrom thethe internetinternet modelmodel toto makemake ourour forecastforecast reinforcedreinforced .. 22 EXPECTATIONSEXPECTATIONS ToTo havehave moremore forecastforecast modelsmodels witwit highhigh resolutionsresolutions forfor TunisiaTunisia toto getget aa crediblecredible forecast.forecast. AA radarradar isis aa necessitynecessity andand aa veryvery powerfullpowerfull tooltool toto getget aa precisedprecised forecast.forecast. StatisticalStatistical calibrationcalibration ofof somesome variablesvariables likelike temperature,temperature, windwind speedspeed andand sector,sector, andand rainrain wouldwould bebe aa helpfulhelpful tooltool toto produceproduce aa moremore reliablereliable forecast.forecast. 23 THANKTHANK YOUYOU FORFOR YOURYOUR ATTENTIONATTENTION 24.