CITY OF FAIRBORN, OH MASTER HOUSING ASSESSMENT STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 2019 03-08 Economic Market Conditions 09-16 Housing Market Analysis 17-22 Downtown Area Development Context 23-28 TABLE OF TABLE Five-Points Area Development Context CONTENTS 29-34 Historic Preservation 35-37 Stakeholder & Community Meetings 38-53 Housing Project & Program Development Opportunities 54-63 Programming 64-92 Implementation & Action Plan 93-155 Appendix 3 Economic Market Conditions CHAPTER 1 ECONOMIC MARKET CONDITIONS 4 Fairborn Master Housing Assessment & Strategy POPULATION While the population for the Dayton Region experienced a dip from about 805,000 Population (1950-Est.2017) people in 2000 to below 800,000 by 2010, 180,000 Greene County has continued to expand 160,000 even through the recession of 2008-09. Much of Greene County’s population 140,000 growth occurred in Beavercreek, a newly incorporated suburb just south of Fairborn. 120,000 Fairborn’s population has been steady but 100,000 not expanding significantly. The important point is that while much of Population 80,000 the Dayton Region was losing population, 60,000 Greene County has been stable and has had higher growth than the Region. 40,000 20,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Est. 2017 Year Fairborn Beavercreek Greene County 5 Economic Market Conditions Population in Population (2000-2023) Surrounding Communities 70,000 Other near suburbs such as Riverside, Huber Heights, and Kettering have lost population, and some are expected to increase very 60,000 little from 2018-2023. While Beavercreek is anticipated to have the most population 50,000 growth, Fairborn is also expected to grow from 2018-2023, see graphs. 40,000 The growth rates have been positive for Fairborn and Beavercreek from 2000-2010, Population 30,000 while the Dayton MSA and near suburbs were experiencing negative growth rates. 20,000 Since 2010, the Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has grown and 10,000 is anticipated to continue to grow from 2018-2023. Riverside and Kettering will 0 continue negative population growth rates 2000 2010 2018 2023 from 2018-2023. Fairborn and Beavercreek Year are projected to have a higher growth rate Fairborn Riverside KeeteringKettering Huber Heights Beavercreek than the Dayton Region from 2018-2023. With the continued growth and strong employment provided by Wright-Patterson Annual Population Growth Rate Air Force Base, Fairborn should continue to 2.50% have a strong rate of population growth if it has a quality of life that is attractive to 2.00% young professionals and their families. 1.50% 1.00% Axis Title 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% Yr%Chg00-10 Yr%Chg10-18 Yr%18-23 Axis Title Dayton MSA Fairborn Riverside KeeteringKettering Huber Heights Beavercreek 6 Fairborn Master Housing Assessment & Strategy EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE Labor Force & Employment The following graphs illustrate the strong economic growth that the Dayton Region has experienced in the last several years. There has been strong employment with low and decreasing unemployment rates. 7 Economic Market Conditions Industrial Employment Even though industrial employment in manufacturing was falling for nearly a decade before the 2008-9 Recession, it remains below 2008 manufacturing employment levels. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities have grown since the recession but like manufacturing remains below 2008 employment levels. This may indicate that many of these jobs are now requiring higher skill levels and are more productive than prior to the recession. Office Employment Office employment has grown as well since the recession. Now reaching 2008 employment levels, it is anticipated that office employment will continue to grow modestly in the coming years. 8 Fairborn Master Housing Assessment & Strategy COMMERICAL MARKETS Retail has been soft throughout much The Dayton economy remains strong, Asking Rent of Dayton like the USA overall. Though and it is driven largely by the scale and (per square Beavercreek has been growing as the east importance of 27,000 employees at Category foot per year) side of Dayton’s retail regional big box hub, Wright-Patterson AFB. The proximity of Overall Market $9.49 there remain strengths in smaller retail WPAFB employment centers to Fairborn Community Center $10.95 areas, but rents remain relatively low as and Beavercreek mean that these two Neighborhood Center $9.80 Convenience/Strip Center $10.34 noted by recent Colliers estimates. communities are the first stop for potential Freestanding/Big-Box $5.35 residency of employees at WPAFB. It will be incumbent upon Fairborn to compete for Source: Colliers these future residents with Beavercreek, which is an affluent and very suburban built context. Fairborn will need to appeal to those employees and their families that seek affordability and a walkable neighborhood context that could be provided by Downtown Fairborn and to a lesser extent in Five-Points as well. 9 Housing Market Analysis CHAPTER 2 HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Greene County has led the Dayton Region in residential development for both single-family and multi- family building over the past decade. 10 Fairborn Master Housing Assessment & Strategy RESIDENTIAL BUILDING Single-Family Detached & Multi-Family Residential Growth Greene County has led much of Dayton area’s single-family residential growth with much of that occurring in Beavercreek. It has also driven multi-family residential development leading the Dayton area over the past ten years. In 2015, 2016, and 2017, Greene County seemed to represent the Dayton Region’s growth in multi-family development. 11 Housing Market Analysis HOUSING DEMAND IN THE DAYTON REGION The housing demand projected for the Dayton Region is estimated to be 10,823 units from 2018-2023, this represents 2,165 units per year. Of this growth, a rough estimate can be made of SFR and MFR by taking the Region’s current percent for owner-occupied versus rental units to derive an estimated of for sale to rental unit demand. This estimate indicates that of the 2,165 housing units per year about 1,190 may be for sale SFR and about 708 may be rental units. As building permit activity has lagged significantly below these estimates, there is likely still significant housing unit oversupply in the Dayton Region. Regional Housing Demand Estimates Dayton MSA 2000 2010 2018 Projected 2023 Population 805,845 799,232 805,746 811,709 Group Qtrs Population 24,578 24,536 24,334 24,514 Percentage of Population in Households 96.98% 96.98% 96.98% 96.98% Household Population 781,508 775,095 781,412 787,195 Average Household Size 2.42 2.37 2.36 2.35 Number of Households 332,994 337,229 341,418 345,408 Housing Unit Occupancy Rate 93.00% 89.20% 88.60% 88.20% Number of Housing Units 347,235 367,272 374,352 379,751 Estimated Number of Vacant Units 24,306 39,665 42,676 44,811 Estimated New Units 20,037 7,080 5,399 Demolitions/deconversions 6,725 6,854 6,953 Net Gain in Housing Units 13,312 226 -1,554 Demand for New Units: -Based on Household Growth 4,107 4,063 3,870 Total new units needed (2018-2023) 10,832 10,917 10,823 Annualized demand 1,083 1,365 2,165 Annual Share Own vs. Rent Total Own (55.4%) 1,199 Rent (32.7%) 708 Source:ESRI Business Analyst and RATIO 12 Fairborn Master Housing Assessment & Strategy HOUSING DEMAND IN GREENE COUNTY The housing demand projected for Greene County from 2018-2023 is estimated to be about 3,192 units, this represents 638 units per year. Of this growth, a rough estimate can be made of SFR and MFR. This estimate indicates that of the 638 housing units per year about 386 may be for sale SFR and about 200 may be rental units. As building permit activity has been near these estimates, there is likely new housing unit demand in Greene County. Regional Housing Demand Estimates Greene County 2000 2010 2018 2023 Population 147,886 161,573 166,284 170,568 Group Qtrs Population 8,060 9,678 8,064 8,068 Percentage of Population in Households 95.15% 95.15% 95.15% 95.15% Household Population 140,714 153,737 158,220 162,295 Average Household Size 2.53 2.43 2.42 2.41 Number of Households 55,312 62,770 65,426 67,370 Housing Unit Occupancy Rate 95.00% 92.00% 92.20% 92.90% Number of Housing Units 58,224 68,241 70,999 73,331 Estimated Number of Vacant Units 2,911 5,459 5,538 5,940 Estimated New Units 10,017 2,758 2,332 Demolitions/deconversions 1,249 1,300 1,343 Net Gain in Housing Units 8,768 1,458 989 Demand for New Units: -Based on Household Growth 7,096 2,527 1,850 Total new units needed (2018-2023) 8,346 3,827 3,192 Annualized demand 835 478 638 Annual Share Own vs. Rent Total Own (60.5%) 386 Rent (31.3%) 200 Source:ESRI Business Analyst and RATIO 13 Housing Market Analysis HOUSING DEMAND IN FAIRBORN The housing demand projected for the Fairborn community from 2018-2023 is estimated to be about 563 units, this represents 113 per year. Of this growth, a rough estimate can be made of SFR and MFR. This estimate indicates that of the 322 housing units per year about 51 may be for sale SFR and about 49 may be rental units. New housing development will likely occur east of I-675 where much of the recent, new SFR development has occurred in Fairborn. Rental units as well have been located on the east side of I-675 too. With available land in and around downtown and potentially in the Five-Points area, new MFR development may be primed for these areas as residents may be more attracted to the walkable downtown and future walkability of Five-Points to area schools and shopping.