U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention J. Robert Flores, Administrator January 2004 Explanations for A Message From OJJDP the Decline in Child The decline in sexual abuse cases, as reported by child protective serv- Sexual Abuse Cases ice agencies, could be an encourag- ing development if future analysis and research establish its signifi- cance. The uncertainty about the David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones meaning of this trend, however, underscores how much remains to The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) is committed to be accomplished in terms of drawing improving the justice system’s response to crimes against children. OJJDP recognizes lessons from past experience to deter- that children are at increased risk for crime victimization. Not only are children the vic- mine future policy. Clearly, a trend of tims of many of the same crimes that victimize adults, they are subject to other crimes, this magnitude merits further inquiry like child abuse and neglect, that are specific to childhood. The impact of these crimes and analysis. on young victims can be devastating, and the violent or sexual victimization of children For example, it would be useful to can often lead to an intergenerational cycle of violence and abuse. The purpose of know whether policies of more ag- OJJDP’s Crimes Against Children Series is to improve and expand the nation’s efforts gressive prosecution, incarceration, and treatment have played a role. to better serve child victims by presenting the latest information about child victimization, If so, what will be the impact when including analyses of crime victimization statistics, studies of child victims and their spe- many of the large group of sexual cial needs, and descriptions of programs and approaches that address these needs. abuse offenders placed in custody in recent years are released from their sentences? From another per- The number of sexual abuse cases sub- Identifying the source or sources of the spective, have efforts to educate stantiated by child protective service decline in the number of substantiated children and to identify and treat ju- (CPS) agencies dropped a remarkable 40 sexual abuse cases is important. The venile sex offenders had the effect percent between 1992 and 2000, from an possibility that a real decline occurred is of reducing the number of victims estimated 150,000 cases to 89,500 cases, heartening and could point the way to and perpetrators? but professional opinion is divided about more effective strategies for preventing This Bulletin reviews six plausible why (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001; Jones, all kinds of child maltreatment. On the explanations for the decline in sex- Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). It is possible other hand, if the decline is due solely ual abuse cases in light of available that the incidence of sexual abuse has to decreased reporting or changes in CPS data. While acknowledging the like- declined as a result of two decades of procedures, it could mean that more chil- lihood that multiple factors are in- prevention, treatment, and aggressive dren are failing to get the help and serv- volved, the authors find evidence criminal justice activity. It is also possible ices they need. of a significant decline in child sex- that there has been no real decline, and ual abuse. that the apparent decline is explained by This Bulletin explores the strengths and adrop in the number of cases being iden- weaknesses of six possible explanations Federal, state, and local agencies tified and reported or by changes in prac- for the decline by using data from a num- should collaborate on a research tices of child protection agencies. ber of different sources (see page 3): agenda that will cast light on the aggregate data from the National Child meaning of this trend. Access OJJDP publications online at www.ojp.usdoj.gov/ojjdp Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS); at more comparable numbers, sexual decline in physical abuse (15 percent) oc- detailed child protective service data from abuse totals were extrapolated to account curred between 1998 and 1999, whereas the Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylva- for the population of all 50 states and the more gradual 40-percent decline for sexual nia; and self-report data from the National District of Columbia as estimated annually abuse occurred over an 8-year period. Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and by the U.S. Census. These extrapolated from schoolchildren in Minnesota. It pro- totals show that the number of substan- vides substantially more evidence about tiated sexual abuse cases reached a peak Explanations for the the decline than was available in a previ- of approximately 149,800 in 1992, followed Decline ous Bulletin on the same topic, The De- by declines of 2 to 11 percent each year As part of their earlier research on this cline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases (Jones through 2000, the last year for which data topic, the authors conducted a survey of and Finkelhor, 2001). are available (see figure 1). In 2000, esti- state child protection administrators to mated cases of sexual abuse reached a low gather hypotheses and evidence about the of approximately 89,355, for a total decline Key Findings decline in sexual abuse (Jones, Finkelhor, of 40 percent in identified sexual abuse and Kopiec, 2001). Although the adminis- ◆ Detailed data provided by four state cases over the 8-year period. The trend is trators expressed many ideas about the CPS agencies offered little evidence not universal, but it has occurred in the decline, six explanations were offered fre- that the decline was due either to more majority of states. Of 49 states, 39 experi- quently and backed by some anecdotal conservative judgment by CPS about enced a total decline of 30 percent or more support: the types of sexual abuse cases they in substantiated cases of sexual abuse would investigate or substantiate or from their peak year to 2000, and 19 of ◆ Increasing conservatism within CPS. to increasing reluctance by CPS to these states saw declines of more than 50 In this view, sexual abuse cases were become involved in cases in which the percent in their sexual abuse caseloads. declining in state caseloads because perpetrator is not a primary caregiver. CPS was adopting more conservative The decline in sexual abuse does not ap- standards regarding “questionable” ◆ There also was no strong evidence that pear to be just an extension of a general cases (e.g., allegations arising in di- the decline was largely due to a dimin- declining trend in overall child maltreat- vorces and custody disputes) or ishing reservoir of older, ongoing cases ment or of some other demographic fac- cases with weak initial evidence. available for new disclosures. tor. According to estimates based on the ◆ Exclusion of cases that do not involve ◆ There was some evidence that the sex- NCANDS data, the decline in sexual abuse caretakers. In this view, CPS was in- ual abuse decline in one state could be appears to account for a large part of the creasingly excluding from its jurisdic- partly explained by changes in CPS pro- 15-percent decline in child maltreatment. tion sexual abuse cases in which the cedures and data collection methods. Neglect cases have fluctuated during the perpetrator was not a primary caregiver. According to national data, however, 1990s with no overall decline while physi- this explanation does not successfully cal abuse has declined 30 percent since ◆ Changes in CPS data collection meth- account for the declines seen in the a peak in 1995. The decline in physical ods or definitions. In this view, the majority of states. abuse is significant, but it is smaller and decline was due to changes in the way more recent than the decline in sexual CPS tabulated or counted its cases, ◆ There was mixed evidence that report- abuse. In fact, the largest proportion of the such as changing from a three-tiered ing of sexual abuse to CPS declined because of a “backlash,” that is, a greater public and professional skepti- cism about reports of sexual abuse. Figure 1: Estimated Number of Substantiated Cases of Sexual Abuse ◆ Evidence from a number of different in the United States, 1990–2000 sources, including NCVS data showing a 56-percent decline in self-reported sexu- 160,000 al assault against juveniles, is consis- tent with a real decline in sexual abuse. 150,000 ◆ Finally, additional studies and improved 140,000 40% decline data are needed to make crucially im- 130,000 portant decisions for public policy based on the factors that are most 120,000 responsible for the decline. 110,000 Number of Cases 100,000 Evidence for the 90,000 Decline 80,000 Yearly estimates of substantiated sexual 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 abuse from 1992 to 2000 were calculated from CPS administrative data collected by Ye a r NCANDS. The number of states that sub- mitted data to this system each year var- Source: Authors’ analyses of data from 1990–2000 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data ied from 43 to 49, making published totals System (NCANDS) reports (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1992–2002). difficult to compare across years. To arrive 2 Data Sources on Sexual Abuse Trends National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS). NCANDS, organized by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Children’s Bureau, collects information from state child welfare agencies on a number of variables related to child maltreatment. Data collection through this system began in 1990. Although a growing number of states submit case-level data to NCANDS, aggregate data from the Summary Data Component (SDC) were used to calculate national sexual abuse trends from 1990 through 2000.