Assessing the current and future risk of ballast-sourced species invasions in Canada’s eastern Arctic under a climate change scenario By M.V. Augusta Lipscombe Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Marine Management at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia December 2016 © M.V. Augusta Lipscombe, 2016 i TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………. 1 1.1 Ballast Water and Associated Risks ..................................................................................... 2 1.2 Ballast Water Management in Canada .................................................................................. 3 1.3 Arctic Changes and Considerations for Ballast Water ......................................................... 5 1.4 Paper Scope and Purpose ...................................................................................................... 6 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………………………………….. 8 2.1 Legislative Approaches to Invasive Species Management ................................................... 8 2.1.1 Canadian Ballast Water Management ............................................................................ 9 2.1.2 International Ballast Water Management .................................................................... 12 2.2 Arctic Shipping Trends ....................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1 Transit Shipping ........................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Community Re-supply ................................................................................................. 19 2.2.3 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 21 2.2.4 Resource Development ................................................................................................ 24 2.2.5 Fishing.......................................................................................................................... 29 3.0 METHODOLOGY………………………………………………………………………….. 32 3.1 Policy Analysis ................................................................................................................... 32 3.1.1 SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................... 32 3.1.2 Matrix Analysis ............................................................................................................ 32 3.1.3 Inter-Country Analysis................................................................................................. 36 3.1.4 Stakeholder Analysis ................................................................................................... 36 3.2 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................. 37 3.2.1 Study Location ............................................................................................................. 37 3.2.2 Risk Assessment .......................................................................................................... 37 3.2.3 Current Risk Assessment ............................................................................................. 43 3.2.4 Projected Risk Assessment .......................................................................................... 45 3.2.5 Final Risk Assessment ................................................................................................. 47 4.0 RESULTS…………………………………………………………………………………… 47 4.1 Policy Analysis ................................................................................................................... 47 4.1.1 SWOT .......................................................................................................................... 47 4.1.2 Matrix Analysis ............................................................................................................ 49 i 4.1.3 Inter-Country Analysis................................................................................................. 55 4.1.4 Stakeholder Analysis ................................................................................................... 62 4.2 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................. 67 4.2.1 Current Risk Assessment ............................................................................................. 70 4.2.2 Future Risk Assessment: Business as Usual ................................................................ 72 4.2.3 Future Risk Assessment: Improved Management Framework .................................... 73 5.0 DISCUSSION……………………………………………………………………………….. 75 5.1 Canadian Ballast Water Management ................................................................................. 75 5.2 Eastern Arctic Risk Assessment ......................................................................................... 78 5.2.1 The Current Risk .......................................................................................................... 78 5.2.2 The Future Risk............................................................................................................ 80 5.3 Implications for Vessel Types ............................................................................................ 81 5.4 Unexpected Findings, Limitations, & Future Research ...................................................... 82 5.5 Implications and Significance ............................................................................................. 84 6.0 RECOMMENDATIONS……………………………………………………………………. 86 6.1 Shift from BWE to BWT .................................................................................................... 86 6.2 Address risks of coastal domestic vessels ........................................................................... 86 6.3 Target highest risk pathways .............................................................................................. 87 6.4 Address alternative ship-sourced pathways of invasion ..................................................... 87 6.5 Focus on the social component of risk ................................................................................ 88 7.0 CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………………… 88 8.0 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………… 90 APPENDIX 1…………………………………………………………………………………… 96 APPENDIX 2……………………………………………………………………………………. 98 APPENDIX 3…………………………………………………………………………………... 100 APPENDIX 4…………………………………………………………………………………... 102 ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Ballast water treatment performance standards………………………………………...11 Table 2: Past vs. projected Arctic community resupply demand………………………………...20 Table 3: Active and inactive mines in the eastern Canadian Arctic…………………………….. 28 Table 4: IMO Convention Regulations and Guidelines considered for analysis………………... 36 Table 5: Codified list of voyages considered for assessment ……………………………………43 Table 6: Canada’s Regulations report card …………...………………………………………….53 Table 7: The IMO Convention report card ………………………………………………………55 Table 8: Inter-country comparison of BWM legislation…………………………………………59 Table 9: Stakeholder analysis …………………………………………………………………...66 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Mechanisms of ballast uptake and discharge…………………………………………... 2 Figure 2: Boundary of the Area of Interest ………………………………………………………37 Figure 3: Stages of invasion……………………………………………………………………...39 Figure 4: Risk model equation …………………………………………………………………...41 Figure 5: Environmental distance ranking scheme ………………………………………………46 Figure 6: SWOT analysis of Canada’s Ballast Water Management Regulations………………..49 Figure 7: Matrix analysis of Canada’s Ballast Water Management Regulations ………………..52 Figure 8: Timeline of ballast water management policy evolution ……………………………...58 Figure 9: Identification and categorization of stakeholders……………………………………...65 Figure 10: Destination ports for assessment ……………………………………………………..69 Figure 11: Analysis of vessel types visiting destination ports in 2015 …………………………..69 Figure 12: Monthly vessel trends in destination ports in 2015 …………………………………..70 Figure 13: Vessel volume in destination ports in 2015…………………………………………..70 Figure 14: Ranking scheme for probability of introduction ……………………………………..71 Figure 15: Ranking scheme for consequence of establishment ………………………………….71 Figure 16: Ranking scheme for overall risk……………………………………………………...72 Figure 17: Risk matrix for Milne Inlet and Churchill for 2015 ………………………………….72 Figure 18.a: Business as Usual risk matrix for Milne Inlet and Churchill in 2055 ……………...74 Figure 18.b: Business as Usual risk matrix for Milne Inlet and Churchill in 2105……………...74 Figure 19.a: Improved Management risk matrix for Milne Inlet and Churchill in 2055………...76 Figure 19.b: Improved Management risk matrix for Milne Inlet and Churchill in 2105………...76 iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AECO – Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators AEZ – Alternate Exchange Zone AIRSS – Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System AIS – Aquatic Invasive Species AMS – Alternate Management System Bcf – Billion Cubic Feet BWE – Ballast Water Exchange BWM – Ballast Water Management BWMS – Ballast Water Management System BWT – Ballast Water Treatment CAC – Canadian Arctic Class CAISN – Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network CCIS – Canadian Council on Invasive Species CEARA – Centre of Expertise for Aquatic Risk Assessment