Anatomy of a Crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan Relations, 2001-2005 John C.K. Daly Kurt H. Meppen Vladimir Socor S. Frederick Starr SILK ROAD PAPER February 2006 Anatomy of a Crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan Relations, 2001-2005 John C.K. Daly Kurt H. Meppen Vladimir Socor S. Frederick Starr United States Institute of Peace Published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute &Silk Road Studies Program In Cooperation with the Jamestown Foundation and the United States Institute of Peace © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Uppsala University, Dept. of Eurasian Studies, Box 514, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Anatomy of A Crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan Relations, 2001-2005” is a Silk Road Paper produced by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Silk Road Papers series is the Occasional Papers series of the Joint Center, published jointly on topical and timely subjects. It is edited by Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director of the Joint Center. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program are a joint transatlantic independent and privately funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of East European Studies and Peace and Conflict Research of Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading focus of research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, February 2006 ISBN: 91-85473-08-1 Printed in the United States of America Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University Box 514, SE-75120 Uppsala Sweden Tel. +46-18-471-2217; Fax. +46-18-106397 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. 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(preferably by e-mail) Table of Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................5 On the U.S. side:............................................................................................... 6 On the Uzbek side: ........................................................................................... 9 Relevant factors not arising from Uzbekistan or the U.S.: ..........................11 U.S.—Uzbek Bilateral Relations: Policy Options............................................13 National Security Interests Drive Agreement..............................................14 Cultural Roadblocks ........................................................................................18 The Relationship is Forged ............................................................................. 21 Regional Dynamics of the U.S. Presence in Central Asia...........................25 The Relationship Begins to Fray................................................................... 28 Whither U.S.—Uzbek Bilateral Relations?...................................................38 The Unfolding of the U.S.-Uzbekistan Crisis................................................44 The SCO Meeting.......................................................................................... 44 Central Asian States Follow Suit.................................................................. 47 Moscow Hardens Its Tone ............................................................................ 49 End of Ambivalence and the Eviction Order................................................50 Reviewing American Options in Central Asia.............................................53 Pressure Continues: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan........................................56 The Unprecedented Uzbek-Russian Joint Military Exercises ....................57 Missing the Chance to Save Karshi-Khanabad ............................................59 Enter Russia, Exit America.............................................................................61 End-Game........................................................................................................ 64 Chronology of U.S.-Uzbekistan Relations, 2001-2005.................................... 66 1992 ................................................................................................................... 66 1993.................................................................................................................... 66 1994 ................................................................................................................... 66 1995.................................................................................................................... 66 1996 ................................................................................................................... 67 1997 ................................................................................................................... 67 U.S. Assistance For Military Reform In Uzbekistan..................................................................68 4 1998 ...................................................................................................................68 1999....................................................................................................................69 Uzbekistan Sounds the Alarm in Washington Over Terrorism ..................................................69 2000...................................................................................................................70 2001.....................................................................................................................71 9-11-2001...................................................................................................................................... 71 The Strategic Partnership Agreement.........................................................................................74 The Powell Visit, December 7. ...................................................................................................76 2002 ................................................................................................................... 77 Launching the Human Rights Counterattack on Uzbekistan .......................................................78 Gulnara Karimova as an Irritant in U.S.-Uzbek Relations ........................................................82 The December 2002 Crisis over Strategic Partnership and Democracy .......................................83 2003 ...................................................................................................................84 Iraq ........................................................................................................................................... 84 Karimov and the Internal Battle within the Uzbek Government ................................................ 84 Tashkent Appeals in Vain for A Renewed (and Extended) Agreement on U.S. Use of the Khanabad Air Base ....................................................................................................................87 2004...................................................................................................................88 State Finds Uzbekistan’s Record Wanting; NSC and the White House Demur. ....................... 88 Rendition....................................................................................................................................93 Craig Murray ............................................................................................................................94 2005 ................................................................................................................... 95 More “Color” Revolutions..........................................................................................................95 Andijan, 13 May .........................................................................................................................95 Hizb-ut-Tahrir...........................................................................................................................97 How Many Perished in Andijan, and At Whose Hands? ......................................................... 100 Were U.S. Trained Forces Responsible for the Crackdown?......................................................101 Was the U.S. in Contact with the IMU? ..................................................................................103 The U.S.-E.U. Demand for an Investigative Commission and Tashkent’s Response................