June 2016 JAPCC Alliance Airborne Anti-Submarine Warfare A Forecast for Maritime Air ASW in the Future Operational Environment Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 | 47546 Kalkar (Germany) | www.japcc.org Warfare Anti-Submarine Airborne Alliance Joint Air Power Competence Centre Cover picture © US Navy © This work is copyrighted. No part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Inquiries should be made to: The Editor, Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), [email protected] Disclaimer This publication is a product of the JAPCC. It does not represent the opinions or policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is designed to provide an independent overview, analysis, food for thought and recommendations regarding a possible way ahead on the subject. Author Commander William Perkins (USA N), JAPCC Contributions: Commander Natale Pizzimenti (ITA N), JAPCC Release This document is releasable to the Public. Portions of the document may be quoted without permission, provided a standard source credit is included. Published and distributed by The Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 47546 Kalkar Germany Telephone: +49 (0) 2824 90 2201 Facsimile: +49 (0) 2824 90 2208 E-Mail: [email protected] Website: www.japcc.org Denotes images digitally manipulated FROM: The Executive Director of the Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC) SUBJECT: A Forecast for Maritime Air ASW in the Future Operational Environment DISTRIBUTION: All NATO Commands, Nations, Ministries of Defence and Relevant Organizations The Russian Federation has increasingly been exercising its military might in areas adjacent to NATO Nations. From hybrid warfare missions against Georgia to paramilitary operations in Crimea, the Russian Federation has used its land-based military to influence regional events in furtherance of their strategic goals. Similarly, the use of their Naval capability has increased, notably through an increase in submarine deployments, the repositioning of highly capable submarines to new home ports in the Black Sea and the www.japcc.org execution of submarine-launched cruise missile strikes into Syria. I NATO’s Maritime Air element has a long history with Russian submarines, reaching from the earliest days of the Alliance and peaking during the Cold War years. Although signs do not portend a return of the Cold War, there are certain aspects of peacetime submarine monitoring which are beginning to challenge NATO’s ability to maintain maritime situational awareness. +49 (0) 2824 90 2208 Fax I In this spirit, this study reviews the current and future capability of NATO’s Maritime Air to conduct Anti-Submarine Warfare against potential future adversaries. It culminates with an environmental forecast outlining possible futures with which NATO’s forces may need to [email protected] contend and concludes with numerous recommendations for NATO’s Maritime Command E-Mail: and other elements of the anti-submarine domain to address identified capability shortfalls. Tel +49 (0) 2824 90 2201 +49 (0) 2824 90 2201 Tel I I We welcome your comments on our document or any future issues it identifies. Please Allemagne feel free to contact the author, Commander William Perkins, USA N, at [email protected], / or any member of the Maritime Air section of the Combat Air Branch at [email protected]. +234 or 239 2201 Germany I NCN: 47546 Kalkar I centre de compétence de la puissance aérienne interarmées de la puissance de compétence centre I Joachim Wundrak JOINT AIR POWER COMPETENCE CENTRE Lieutenant General, DEU AF Executive Director, JAPCC Römerstraße 140 I Joint Air Power Competence Centre Competence Power Air Joint von-Seydlitz-Kaserne JAPCC | Alliance Airborne Anti-Submarine Warfare | June 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER I Introduction 1.1 Aim ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................5 1.2 Assumptions.......................................................................................................................................................................................5 1.3 Methodology .....................................................................................................................................................................................5 1.4 Limitations ...........................................................................................................................................................................................6 1.5 Evolving Environment ..................................................................................................................................................................6 CHAPTER II Terms and Definitions 2.1 Submarine Classes and Missions ...........................................................................................................................................7 2.2 Nuclear Powered Submarines .................................................................................................................................................7 2.3 Diesel-Electric Powered Submarines ..................................................................................................................................8 2.4 Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV) ...........................................................................................................................9 2.5 Aircraft Carriers..................................................................................................................................................................................9 2.6 Oceanography ..............................................................................................................................................................................10 2.7 Maritime Surveillance ................................................................................................................................................................10 2.8 Maritime Patrol...............................................................................................................................................................................11 2.9 Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................................11 CHAPTER III The Evolution of Theatre-Wide ASW Operations 3.1 A Multinational MPA Approach to Cold War ASW ...................................................................................................12 3.2 Theatre-wide Command and Control for Cold War ASW....................................................................................14 3.3 The MACA Construct..................................................................................................................................................................14 3.4 Theatre ASW Commander ......................................................................................................................................................15 3.5 Is the NATO Command Structure Sufficient? ..............................................................................................................17 3.6 TASWC EXTAC .................................................................................................................................................................................17 3.7 Recommended TASWC C2 Structure ...............................................................................................................................17 3.8 Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................................19 CHAPTER IV The Russian Perspective – Strategy for Submarine Employment. 4.1 From Politics to Strategy .........................................................................................................................................................20 4.2 Putin’s Strategic View of the Navy ......................................................................................................................................21 4.3 Recent Russian Submarine Operations ..........................................................................................................................23 4.4 The Link Between the Russian Populace and the Kremlin’s Use of Military Force ...............................25 4.5 Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................................26 ii JAPCC | Alliance Airborne Anti-Submarine Warfare | June 2016 CHAPTER V Submarine Development 5.1 The Russian Federation’s Submarine Development ...............................................................................................28 5.2 Overall Detectability ...................................................................................................................................................................30 5.3 The Export Challenge ................................................................................................................................................................31