WORLD COMMERCE SUMMER 2021 REVIEW THE BVI FINTECH FLEUR DE BEAUFORT JON CUNLIFFE TALKS TRANSFORMATION. SIMON AND PATRICK VAN SCHIE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF GRAY CHARTS THE GROWTH INTERPRET THE RESULTS MONEY IN AN INCREASINGLY OF THE BVI TO A GLOBAL OF THE DUTCH ELECTIONS DIGITAL WORLD FINTECH HUB AND ‘POPULISM’ THE GLOBAL TRADE AND FINANCE PLATFORM CONTENTS China and the WTO: two systems meet Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir focus on the build-up to China joining the WTO, and argue that expectations for China’s behaviour were misguided from the start China and the WTO: an uneasy relationship Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir examine the Chinese economic and trading structure, that has continued despite expectations it would liberalise and open up China and the WTO: how can they work together better? The WTO is limited in its ability to shape China's trade policy. Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir consider how the China-WTO relationship can be reformed and improved Africa’s latent assets www.worldcommercereview.com Soeren Henn and James Robinson identify latent assets in Africa that bode well for sustained economic growth How the pandemic could save us We are at a crossroads. Ian Goldin argues that the pandemic has created opportunities for change which would have been impossible before the pandemic CONTENTS Quo vadis, Swiss-EU relations? Switzerland’s decision to abandon InstA talks with the EU will have widespread consequences. Stefanie Walter says future relations now depends both on the EU’s response and on domestic developments A connectivity game changer Multi-modal connectivity is poised to be a game changer. Arnab Ganguly and Jithin Sabu on how the BBIN is connecting to thrive The Dutch elections and ‘populism’ Fleur de Beaufort and Patrick van Schie interpret the results of the Dutch elections, and consider the growth in the support for the alternative 'populist' parties The BVI fintech transformation www.worldcommercereview.com From a traditional financial services centre to a global fintech hub, Simon Gray charts the emergence of the BVI as an innovation and investment hotspot across the fintech and digital space The future of cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies have foreshadowed a potential digital future for money. Graham Bright sees blockchain as an enabler in the growth of the financial system and digital money CONTENTS Private money and central bank money as payments go digital Technology is driving dramatic change in the US payments system. Lael Brainard provides an update on CBDCs and a digital dollar Stablecoins: what's old is new again Christina Segal-Knowles talks about stablecoins. She looks at how they could be regulated if they are used as a form of payment Do we need ‘public money’? The Bank of England has issued banknotes for over 300 years. Jon Cunliffe talks about future of money in the UK in an increasingly digital world A new template for the European fiscal framework www.worldcommercereview.com The European fiscal rules have been suspended to enable member states to combat the COVID crisis. Martin et al argue this is an opportunity for ambitious reform of a now clearly outdated fiscal framework Towards a green capital markets union Christine Lagarde considers the European Union’s transition towards a sustainable economy that will be backed by the growth of sustainable finance CONTENTS Pricing of carbon within and at the border of Europe The EU has announced carbon neutrality by 2050 as the key target of the Green Deal. Schmidt et al. argue that the EU should consider a border carbon adjustment mechanism to incentivise other countries to join Navigating through hydrogen Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann argue that policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen to meet the 2050 emissions target Virtual EBACE connected our industry Ed Bolen considers how the business aviation community adapted to new forms of communication, and looks ahead to the return of in-person gatherings post-pandemic Silver linings www.worldcommercereview.com Internationalisation, accreditation and the pandemic - Michael Osbaldeston and Adriana Kudrnová Lovera look at the potential benefits that may emerge from the current challenges Time to act like a start-up Jonathan Sharp says now is the time to adapt company strategy and culture to respond to the changing business environment FOREWORD Trade wars he political reaction to COVID-19 has plunged the West into an ever-greater debt burden, which will have to be paid back. Fortunately, interest rates are currently at a very low level. However, these high debt levels are also coinciding in a perfect storm situation with the low-growth environmental, social and corporate Tgovernance-friendly policies that the US and Europe in particular are in love with. When Reagan and Thatcher wanted to cut back the size of the state, it changed the world. Now the United States, www.worldcommercereview.com European Union and the United Kingdom are united in the opposite mission: to bring back big government. This is encapsulated in a commitment to what is known as stakeholder capitalism, which focuses on serving the needs of the society, the environment, the community, the people who work within the business, the customers of the business, not just the shareholders of the business. Government-directed industrial sectors are invariably poor-performing and low growth. There is a risk that Europe, which has been on this road longer than the United States, will end up like the Eastern Bloc of the seventies, poor and years behind the capitalist West (or in this case, China and the Asian economies). This will be the result of the Fortress Europe protectionist Europe that is coalescing in front of our eyes. Trade protectionism has long roots and is still alive and kicking. Import-substituting industrialisation behind a wall of tariff and non-tariff barriers led to failed economic development in post-colonial Asia, Africa and Latin America, as their industries seldom grew up to compete in world markets. They instead became conduits for crony capitalism, corruption and loss-making public investments. Governments favouring important domestic political constituencies at the expense of international trade is common enough in the OECD countries as well. Trade protectionism arises from a fear and failure to compete. Trade relationships are increasingly being driven by the ESG agenda – the Environment, Social, Governance agenda – and by doing good for society and good for the planet by behaving responsibly as a government. Non-tariff barriers, whether they are about worker rights, carbon taxes or diversity, are an impediment to growth. In the green agenda, for example, as governments start to translate a net-zero 2050 target into a set of shorter term and more specific targets, we need to explore the impact these will have on jobs, total output and incomes and public spending. The cost of the transition to net-zero has not been disclosed. A government-driven project is certain to cost a www.worldcommercereview.com multiple of any figure, and delivery is sure to be overdue. And for what? It is an irony that the greatest wealth-creating, poverty-reducing period in history, when economies worldwide were opened up, is now ending as economies are increasingly becoming more protectionist. Will the technological transformation be enough to counteract the influence of the liberal elite? That is the question.■ Bermuda is a leading WOULDN’T YOU RATHER offshore jurisdiction for BE WORKING FROM HERE? insurance, reinsurance, financial services, banking and Fintech. It has a world-class reputation for progressive legislation and robust regulation, and is a safe and business-friendly market. Also, it is welcoming digital nomads, investors, creators and innovators who are taking advantage of the one-year, renewable residency visa to live, work and play in Bermuda. WOULDN’T YOU RATHER BE WORKING FROM HERE TOO? ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA Economic Development Department : 1 441 294 9074 : [email protected] China and the WTO: two systems meet www.worldcommercereview.com Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir focus on the build-up to China joining the WTO, and argue that expectations for China’s behaviour were misguided from the start hina’s ascension to the WTO followed years of negotiations with the incumbent members and was hailed at the time as a victory for the liberal paradigm – part of the ‘end of history’. But today frictions remain. This first in a series of three columns presents the build-up to China joining the multilateral trade agreement, Carguing that expectations for its subsequent behaviour were misguided from the off. China was one of the original contracting parties to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947, but its status was deactivated in 1950 after the formation of the People’s Republic. For the next three decades, China had practically no contact with the agreement. But the situation changed in the late 1970s and early 1980s, following Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms. China formally sought the resumption of its status as a contracting party to the GATT in 1986, with accession negotiations starting the following year. Despite 20 rounds of negotiations, China and the incumbent GATT members failed to reach an agreement by 1995, when the WTO succeeded GATT. It then took another 18 rounds of negotiations for the two parties to agree on China’s ‘Protocol of Accession’ to the WTO. The exceptionally long accession negotiation reflected the challenge of having a country with a socialist economic system and the largest population in the world join an organisation conceived and operated on essentially liberal economic principles. www.worldcommercereview.com Despite some apprehension, China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 was hailed as a magnificent achievement that would stay in history as the indelible etching on the wall commemorating the definitive victory of the liberal paradigm.