MSc in Professional Studies: City Science PROF 775 – Capstone Project, Summer 2020 “Building Simulation, Solar Potential and Consumption Analysis of Residential Dwellings, in Dubai” A Graduate Capstone Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Professional Studies: City Sciences By Aysha Mohammad AlRemeithi Hasan Zulfiquar Kamal Marwa Ibrahim Al-Raeesi Supervisor: Dr. Ghalib Y. Kahwaji Rochester Institute of Technology- Dubai Campus 26-July- 2020 1 Master of Science in Professional Studies: City Sciences RIT Dubai Graduate Capstone Approval Student Names: Aysha Mohammad AlRemeithi Hasan Zulfiquar Kamal Marwa Ibrahim AlRaeesi Graduate Capstone Title: “Building Simulation, Solar Potential and Consumption Analysis of Residential Dwellings, in Dubai” Graduate Capstone Committee: Name: Dr. Sanjay ModaK Date: 26/07/2020 Chair of committee Name: Dr. Ghalib Kahwaji Date: 26/07/2020 Supervisor 2 Acknowledgements We would like to express our deepest appreciation to our RIT committee and faculty, specially our mentor Dr. Ghalib Kahwaji for his guidance and support. We would also like to thank our family and friends for their continuous encouragement. Finally, our extended gratitude for Taqati and DSO for supporting our research with input data parameters. 3 Abstract City sustainability analysis is overly broad, and people with diverse mindsets look at cities from different perspectives. As part of the city’s fabric, buildings are an integral component and hence require attention. Although the electricity consumed in buildings varies from country to country, it is equal to 30–40% of the total electricity consumption all over the world. [1]. This research targeted studying residential building simulation in Dubai, using various Green Building Codes, assessing energy consumption trends, designing solar systems with respective sizing along with conducting detailed load profile analysis and developing statistical model to directly estimate the HVAC consumption. The results showed that Green Building Codes progression and enhancements have reduced energy consumption gradually, totaling a 37.87% drop at Al Sa’fat Platinum compared to a base case. The EUI for Al Sa’fat Platinum residential villa is 151 KW/m2 and is approximately 60% above the nZEB targets for UAE. Optimum solar PV tilt angles are 25O, south facing, and Al Sa’fat Platinum 10% on-site solar energy mandate results in a payback period of 5 years and compensates 16% of grid import costs. Furthermore, the load profile analysis studied the average day load profiles and changes in load shape for various codes and statistical modeling of villa consumption showed that the about 33% of the Weather Independent Consumption contributed to HVAC consumption share. Keywords: Sustainability, Energy, Consumption analysis, Residential and Solar, load profile analysis, consumption statistical modeling. 4 Table of Contents 1 Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 3 Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. 4 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................. 5 2 General Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 3 Research Methodology ................................................................................................................. 9 4 Section 1 - Residential Villa Simulation & Comparative Analysis ......................................... 11 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Literature Review .................................................................................................................. 11 4.2.1 Literature review covering building performance ......................................................... 11 4.2.2 Literature review covering nZEB.................................................................................. 15 4.2.3 Literature review on - Building Code progression in UAE .......................................... 17 4.3 Detailed Methodology........................................................................................................... 20 4.4 Inputs to simulation ............................................................................................................... 24 4.4.1 General inputs ............................................................................................................... 24 4.4.2 Detailed Code-wise Inputs: ........................................................................................... 26 4.4.3 Operation Profiles ......................................................................................................... 32 4.5 Consolidated Results and Discussion ................................................................................... 36 4.6 Nearly Zero Energy Buildings EUI Comparison .................................................................. 40 4.7 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 42 5 Section 2 - Solar Potential and Savings Estimation ................................................................. 44 5.1 Introduction & Literature Survey .......................................................................................... 44 5.2 Detailed Methodology........................................................................................................... 46 6 Section 2 - Solar Potential and Savings Estimation ................................................................. 47 6.1 Introduction & Literature Survey .......................................................................................... 47 6.2 Detailed Methodology........................................................................................................... 49 6.3 Results, analysis and discussion............................................................................................ 50 6.3.1 Investigation of the optimum utilization factors of the solar PV system ...................... 50 6.3.2 Solar Generation outcome ............................................................................................. 53 6.3.3 Solar average peak shift ................................................................................................ 55 6.3.4 Solar system scale-up design (Pvsyst) .......................................................................... 57 6.3.5 Design simulation results & potential ........................................................................... 67 6.3.6 Economic assessment .................................................................................................... 70 5 6.3.7 Assessment of Renewable Energy Fraction ( Solar energy ) and Net Energy Use Index for a nZEB ..................................................................................................................................... 74 6.4 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 76 7 Section 3 – Building End Use Consumption Analysis. ............................................................. 78 7.1 Literature review. .................................................................................................................. 80 7.2 Simple linear regression [46] ................................................................................................ 81 7.3 Cooling Degree days [47] ..................................................................................................... 82 7.4 Load Profile Analysis of the consumption pattern for 4 coded buildings. ............................ 84 7.4.1 Average Day profiles .................................................................................................... 85 7.5 Statistical model to get the HVAC consumption for villas ................................................... 91 7.5.1 Methodology for developing the statistical model. ....................................................... 91 7.5.2 Development of statistical model .................................................................................. 92 8 Conclusion, Recommendation and Future Work .................................................................... 99 9 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 100 10 Appendix .................................................................................................................................... 104 10.1 Appendix 1 .......................................................................................................................... 104 10.2 Appendix 2 .......................................................................................................................... 106 10.3 Appendix 3 .......................................................................................................................... 108 6 2 General Introduction Worldwide, cities are witnessing a rapid transformation in terms of increasing population, stressing