HAWAI‘I 2017 UPDATE ENERGY REPORT CARD HAWAI‘I 2017 UPDATE OVERALL PROGRESS: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION ENERGY REPORT CARD 315 Total fossil fuel consumption in Hawai‘i is still declining, reflecting our progress toward 100 percent clean Blue Planet Foundation’s energy report card presents a big-picture assessment of Hawai‘i’s progress toward energy independence 295 energy. But we are falling a little short of the target. with 100 percent clean energy. By evaluating five key components—transportation, energy efficiency, renewables, smart grid, and More clean energy can get us back on track for energy economics—and tracking specific factors that influence them, we can identify bright spots and opportunities to improve. These grades 275 independence by 2040. generally reflect our clean energy progress through 2015 or 2016. Data for some factors have been updated into 2017. Look for a fully updated Report Card in even years, starting with 2018. 255 HERE’S HOW TO READ THE CHARTS OBJECTIVE: 100% CLEAN ENERGY 235 TARGET TREND LINE CLEAN ENERGY GRADES OVERALL GRADE 215 The blue target trend marks the pace of progress that would keep the state on track for a fossil-free future by 2040. TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY RENEWABLES SMART GRID ECONOMICS TARGET TREND 195 EXCEEDING TARGET GREEN LINE NOT MEETING TARGET The green line indicates positive results. ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION (TRILLION BTU) 175 RED LINE 2000 2005 2010 2015 The red line indicates shortfalls. Annual fossil fuel energy consumption is estimated from State of Hawai‘i reports on the liquid fuel tax base and from data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Target trend is based on an assumed decline from the 2008 consumption level, at the NOTES D+ A- B+ D C+ B- inception of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative, to zero in 2040. Each primary metric is accompanied by three factors, and each PREVIOUSLY: PREVIOUSLY: PREVIOUSLY: PREVIOUSLY: PREVIOUSLY: PREVIOUSLY: factor highlights trends and opportunities. D- B+ A- D C B- 1 90 PRIMARY METRIC TARGET TREND 80 EXCEEDING TARGET TRANSPORTATION ALL TRANSPORTATION FUEL SALES NOT MEETING TARGET FOSSIL-BASED GRADE 70 60 MOTOR FUEL SALES 50 Transportation accounts for almost two-thirds of our fossil fuel 40 GROUND & SMALL consumption, making sustainable BOAT FUEL SALES mobility solutions essential to 30 moving Hawai‘i beyond oil. In the past year, demand for transportation 20 fossil fuels has increased. We are TRANSPORTATION AVIATION FUEL SALES not on track. 10 TRANSPORTATION FUEL SALES (MILLIONS OF GAL/MO) 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 AVIATION D+ Fuel sales are presented as a six-month moving average of monthly gasoline, highway diesel and LPG, small CARS & WHERE IS 28% boat gasoline and diesel, and aviation fuel sales, as reported by the State of Hawai‘i Department of Business, LIGHT TRUCKS ALL THAT FUEL Economic Development & Tourism or Department of Taxation, and assume that non-fossil-based transportation 53% GOING? MARINE PREVIOUSLY: D- fuel sales to date have been negligible in comparison to overall sales. Energy independence target trends assume 12% that fossil-based transportation fuel sales decrease linearly from the 2006 monthly average to zero gallons by 2040. Some information in the accompanying text is from the 2015 Hawai‘i Clean Energy Initiative Transportation HEAVY-DUTY Energy Analysis. VEHICLES 7% 3 FACTOR No.1 WHAT ABOUT VEHICLE EFFICIENCY? OUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES TRANSPORTATION VEHICLE EFFICIENCY Even with record low oil prices, Hawai‘i County uses a 20% biodiesel blend (B20) in buses, fire trucks, and 29 VEHICLE EFFICIENCY ambulances. Honolulu uses B20 for TARGET TREND garbage trucks and ambulances. 27 EXCEEDING TARGET IS MAKING GAINS. RENEWABLE FUELS MEAN CLEANER TRANSPORTATION. NOT MEETING TARGET At 24 mpg on average, 25 we are moving closer to the state’s goal of 30 mpg 23 8 U.S. states and 5 countries are efficiency by 2020. targeting 100% electric vehicles 21 A state study found that sales by 2050. Lawmakers in Norway increasing the fuel tax could and the Netherlands are considering a zero emissions target for all new MILES PER GALLON 19 26% be the single most effective way to reduce gasoline and cars by 2025. 17 8% diesel consumption. The extra revenue could 15 EV HYBRID DIESEL GAS lower other taxes or promote ELECTRIC VEHICLES clean transportation options. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Norway has used a similar ARE MORE EFFICIENT 4% 6% strategy to make an electric and they enable a smarter grid Statewide motor vehicle efficiency is derived from gasoline, highway diesel, and highway LPG consumption, and from vehicle miles traveled, reported in State of Hawai‘i Department of Ownership of efficient electric and hybrid vehicle the most popular new to integrate more renewable energy. Taxation Annual Fuels Reports and the 2014 State of Hawai‘i Data Book, Table 18.17. Target trend is based on the Hawai‘i Clean Energy Initiative Road Map: 2011 Edition, targeting average passenger vehicles continues to grow faster See page 32 for information on EVs vehicle efficiency of 30 mpg for passenger cars, and 22 mpg for light trucks, by 2020, and also on 2013 relative distributions of registered passenger cars and light trucks reported in the car in the country. 2013 State of Hawai‘i Data Book, Table 18.06. than other vehicles. 4 5 FACTOR No.2 WHAT ABOUT VMT? OUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES TRANSPORTATION VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED After a sharp uptick, VMT is finally headed in the right direction. But we The King Street Cycle Track in 9,000 are not yet on track. Honolulu is proving the case for new mobility options. 8,500 HAWAI‘I STILL NEEDS MORE Bike ridership on King Street is up 88% since the track was 8,000 CLEAN MOBILITY OPTIONS. created in 2014. Residents and 7,500 businesses want more walkable and bikeable neighborhoods. 7,000 DRIVING IS 6,500 BECOMING LESS ACCORDING TO A STATE STUDY, 6,000 TARGET TREND 5,500 EXCEEDING TARGET POPULAR. PROMISING STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING VMT INCLUDE: NOT MEETING TARGET For three straight years, • Increasing fuel taxes VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) PER CAPITA 5,000 the number of active driver’s (saving 28 million gallons per year by 2030) licenses has dropped. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 • Transit-oriented development Meanwhile, the share of (23 million gallons per year) people who commute by bike, • Telecommuting by public employees and large employers Statewide per capita VMT is presented as a function of total VMT and de facto population (i.e. including visitors and military members) reported in the 2014 State of Hawai‘i Data Book, Tables walking, or public transit has 1.09 and 18.17. Target trend is based on the Hawai‘i Clean Energy Initiative Road Map: 2011 Edition, targeting a 4% reduction in total vehicle miles traveled (over 2010) by 2020, and a projected (5 million gallons per year) 2020 de facto population of approximately 1.5 million. increased every year. 6 7 FACTOR No.3 WHAT ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSIT? OUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES TRANSPORTATION PUBLIC TRANSIT EFFICIENCY BUS EFFICIENCY IS Once completed, the Honolulu rail 80 project will boost transit capacity and lower VMT. With the right 70 STILL A GOOD DEAL, planning, it could also be powered at nearly 65 passenger by renewable electricity. 60 miles per gallon. But in 2015, bus ridership THIS IS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR 50 was flat and efficiency EFFICIENCY AND ZERO EMISSION fell slightly. 40 TRANSPORTATION. 30 20 Tour company JTB Hawaii has announced PASSENGER MILES PER GALLON IMPROVING THE HONOLULU BUS a plan to convert its 10 DECLINING fleet of buses to zero 0 emissions. Already, China 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 SYSTEM IS AT CAPACITY. has more than 100,000 Demand is high, but no new public transit capacity has been electric buses on the added since the 1980s. This limits its potential. road, and communities in the U.S. are following suit. Honolulu public transit efficiency is presented as a two-year moving average of passenger miles and fuel consumption as reported by the National Transit Database. 8 9 290 PRIMARY METRIC EFFICIENCY GRADE 270 ENERGY 250 CONSUMPTION 230 PER CAPITA Efficiency is still our cheapest 210 and easiest form of clean energy. This chart measures efficiency by examining Hawai‘i’s per capita EFFICIENCY 190 TARGET TREND consumption of energy since 1990. ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER (MM CAPITA BTU) EXCEEDING TARGET Hawai‘i’s efficiency grade is driven NOT MEETING TARGET by the electricity-related factors 170 identified here as well as the factors 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 identified in the Transportation A- section. We are on track. Energy data are from primary energy consumption data available from the U.S. Energy Information PREVIOUSLY: B+ Administration, and from the State of Hawai‘i Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism. Population data are from the 2014 State of Hawai‘i Data Book. Target trend assumes 30% decrease in per capita energy consumption from 2008 to 2030. 11 FACTOR No.1 WHAT ABOUT ENERGY EFFICIENCY? OUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES EFFICIENCY ANNUAL ELECTRICITY GENERATED PER CAPITA Our daily energy peak used TEST YOUR ENERGY KNOWLEDGE: to be near mid-day. But solar % OF ENERGY DEMAND 9,900 energy successfully eliminated DURING THE EVENING PEAK On which day of the that peak. year do we use the 8,900 least electricity? NOW, EVENING HOURS ARE WHEN See page 15 for the answer. WE MOST NEED CLEAN ENERGY. OTHER COOLING This makes evening efficiency 30% RESIDENTIAL 31% 7,900 particularly valuable. Here LIGHTING are the best opportunities to 13% /CAPITA WATER lower the peak. HEATING kWh 6,900 REFRIGERATION 14% 12% 5,900 TARGET TREND More efficiency means we EXCEEDING TARGET will need fewer fossil fuels on NOT MEETING TARGET We are still on target to meet the path to 100% renewable the Hawai‘i Clean Energy energy.