SWITCHING SIDES: POLITICAL POWER, ALIGNMENT, AND ALLIANCES IN POST-SADDAM IRAQ by Diane L. Maye A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science Committee: _________________________________________ Mark N. Katz, Chair _________________________________________ Colin Dueck _________________________________________ T. Aric Thrall _________________________________________ Ming Wan, Program Director _________________________________________ Mark J. Rozell, Dean Date: ____________________________________ Fall Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Switching Sides: Political Power, Alignment, and Alliances in post-Saddam Iraq A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University. by Diane L. Maye Master of Arts Naval Postgraduate School, 2006 Bachelor of Science United States Air Force Academy, 2001 Director: Mark N. Katz, Professor School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs Fall Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2015 Diane L. Maye All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my wonderful husband, without whose love and support this dissertation would have not been completed. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge those who assisted me throughout my doctoral studies over the years. I would first like to acknowledge my chairman, Dr. Mark N. Katz, for agreeing to serve as my advisor and mentor during this process. Additionally, I would like to thank Dr. Colin Dueck, and Dr. T. Aric Thrall for serving as committee members. A very special thanks to my dear friend Sa’ad Ghaffoori for our countless meetings, emails, and conversations. I would also like to thank Governor Ahmed al Dulaymi, Thamir Hamdani, Waleed Mashhadani, Colonel Dale Kuehl, Colonel William Wyman, Colonel Richard Welch, Colonel Simon Gardner, as well as, Michael Pregent, Michael Sweeney, Paul D. Miller, Muhanad Seloom, Ray Chakmakchi, Kurdo Jaff, Ali Arifee, Rana Waysi, Donald Maye, and Ibrahim Karim for being so helpful in our discussions. Finally, I would like to thank my husband, for reviewing my work and helping with the Arabic translations. This would not have been possible without his support. I could not have completed my research with out his faith and patience in my endeavors! iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures..................................................................................................................... x List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ xi Note on Translations and Names .................................................................................... xiii Abstract........................................................................................................................... xvi Chapter 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................1 Theoretical Model............................................................................................................1 Strategy & Policy Significance........................................................................................4 Dissertation Roadmap......................................................................................................4 Chapter 2: Background .......................................................................................................6 Sunni Realignment...........................................................................................................9 Shi’ia Resistance............................................................................................................11 Kurdistan Regional Government ...................................................................................12 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................13 Chapter 3: Literature Review and Historical Context........................................................14 History of Ethno-Sectarian Violence in Iraq .................................................................14 Alignment and Alliance Defined ...................................................................................18 Structural Arguments.....................................................................................................19 State-Level Literature ................................................................................................19 Sub-State Level Literature .........................................................................................22 Neorealist Departures.................................................................................................23 Comparative Politics Literature on Coalitions...........................................................23 Two-Level Games...........................................................................................................24 Agent-Based Arguments.................................................................................................26 Identity Considerations ..............................................................................................27 Combining Structure and Agency..................................................................................28 Complexity Theory and Self-Organizing Systems ....................................................28 Micromotives and Macrobehavior.............................................................................28 Weberian Sociology...................................................................................................30 Literature Gap ................................................................................................................31 Chapter 4: Methodology ....................................................................................................32 Research Question and Variables ..................................................................................32 Case Selection................................................................................................................33 v Hypotheses.....................................................................................................................34 Structural: Neorealist Hypotheses..............................................................................35 Structural: Coalition-Building Hypotheses................................................................36 Agent-Based: Motivational and Behavioral Hypotheses...........................................36 Combining Structure & Agency: Complexity-Based Hypotheses.............................38 Towards a New Theory of Alignment & Alliances...................................................38 Sources and Data............................................................................................................41 Chapter 5: Background on Iraqi Politics............................................................................42 Ottoman Iraq ..................................................................................................................43 Modern Iraq ...................................................................................................................45 Ba’ath Party Politics ......................................................................................................46 Salafism..........................................................................................................................49 Iraqi Diaspora.................................................................................................................49 Operation Iraqi Freedom and de-Ba’athification...........................................................52 Post-Ba’athi Governance ...............................................................................................54 2005 Elections................................................................................................................59 Chapter 6: CASE 1- Sunni Realignment and Marginalization ..........................................62 Background ...................................................................................................................62 Al Askari Mosque .........................................................................................................64 The Surge.......................................................................................................................65 Sunni Political and Military Realignment .....................................................................66 Case 1: Tribal Leaders ..............................................................................................67 Case 2: Military Leaders............................................................................................69 Case 3: Political Leaders............................................................................................74 Post-Stability .................................................................................................................76