Interpretation of Subsequent Multilateral Disarmament Treaties: An Examination of Legal Integration and Political Harmonisation in the Nuclear Arms Control Regime Orli Zahava A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Social Sciences Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences June 2018 Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname/Family Name : Zahava Given Name/s : Orli Abbreviation for degree as give in the University calendar : PhD Faculty : Arts and Social Sciences School : School of Social Sciences Interpretation of Subsequent Multilateral Disarmament Treaties: An Thesis Title : Examination of Integration and Harmonisation in the Nuclear Arms Control Regime Abstract This thesis seeks to contribute to the literature on treaty harmonisation and integration through the application of an interdisciplinary approach to treaty interpretation. Scott’s political theory of treaty interpretation, or Cognitive Structures of Cooperation (CSC) theory, is applied to the nuclear arms control regime founded on the 1968 Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to uncover what clarity it offers on legal integration and political harmonisation. CSC theory hypothesises that a stability dynamic operates within legal regimes whereby subsequent treaties could be expected to enter into force only if they serve to reinforce the political power structure that the original treaty confirmed. CSC theory provides a methodology to assess the extent to which a subsequent treaty actually does integrate and harmonise. This theory is applied to the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the 2015 French draft treaty on fissile material and the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The stability dynamic was found to have functioned in the nuclear arms control regime as CSC theory would have anticipated. This finding has helped explain the fate of disarmament treaties subsequent to the NPT. Previous studies viewed subsequent disarmament treaties either in terms of their having failed to legally integrate through not entering into force or in terms of the political dynamics at play. This study has demonstrated the extent to which, and the manner in which, both of these processes are ineluctably intertwined. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). …………………………………………………………… ……………………………………..……………… ……….……………………...…….… Signature Witness Signature Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: ii Abstract This thesis seeks to contribute to the literature on treaty harmonisation and integration through the application of an interdisciplinary approach to treaty interpretation. Scott’s political theory of treaty interpretation, or Cognitive Structures of Cooperation (CSC) theory, is applied to the nuclear arms control regime founded on the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to uncover what clarity it offers on legal integration and political harmonisation. CSC theory hypothesises that a stability dynamic operates within legal regimes whereby subsequent treaties could be expected to enter into force only if they serve to reinforce the political power structure that the original treaty confirmed. CSC theory provides a methodology to assess the extent to which a subsequent treaty actually does integrate and harmonise. This theory is applied to the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the 2015 French draft treaty on fissile material and the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The stability dynamic was found to have functioned in the nuclear arms control regime as CSC theory would have anticipated. This finding has helped explain the fate of disarmament treaties subsequent to the NPT. Previous studies viewed subsequent disarmament treaties either in terms of their having failed to legally integrate through not entering into force or in terms of the political dynamics at play. This study has demonstrated the extent to which, and the manner in which, both of these processes are ineluctably intertwined. iii Originality Statement I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material that have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged. Signed: Orli Zahava Date: June 8, 2018 iv Acknowledgements First and foremost I would like to thank my thesis supervisor, Professor Shirley Scott, Professor of International Relations and Head of School, School of Humanities and Social Sciences at UNSW Canberra. It was Professor Scott’s far-reaching intellectual contributions to the inter-disciplinary field of International Relations and International Law that inspired me to explore the political dimensions of the nuclear arms control legal regime, initially through the Masters in International Relations thesis project and now, in this doctoral thesis. Her advice and assistance to me throughout this writing process has been invaluable and her insights and patience incalculable. This short note of thanks cannot possibly express my gratitude to her, though I hope in some small part, it conveys my sincere appreciation and gratitude for her guidance throughout the process of producing this thesis. I would also like to acknowledge several colleagues, who along the way offered their expertise and advice. They provided me with an opportunity to discuss my ideas and their advice on earlier drafts of chapters have been instrumental. Thanks to: Anthony Billingsley, Alan Bloomfield, Christian Downie, Roberta Chardulo Dias De Andrade, Annie Hero, Hayley Linz and Jamie Roberts. I was fortunate to be able to attend and present papers at the following international and domestic conferences: ISA Atlanta, WISC Frankfurt, WISC Taipei, ANZSIL Canberra, OCIS Melbourne and APSA Sydney. The collegial atmosphere of the conference environment provided a welcome respite from the solitary nature of research work and I am grateful to all who engaged with my work and offered advice and encouragement. Capstone Editing provided copyediting and proofreading services, according to the guidelines laid out in the university-endorsed national ‘Guidelines for Editing Research Theses’. Sincere thanks to Dr Lisa Lines and Amy Jindaphan. Finally, I would like to thank my partner in life Rodney Grunseit for his infinite and boundless support and encouragement. Words can barely express the gratitude and appreciation I have towards him and my children for their continuing belief in me. v Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................. iii Originality Statement............................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ v Contents ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ x List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... x List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE. ORIGINAL AND SUBSEQUENT TREATIES: INTERPRETATION OF DISARMAMENT TREATIES IN RELATION TO THE 1968 TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS ........................................................ 1 The Issue ............................................................................................................................. 1 The Task Ahead ................................................................................................................... 6 Literature Relevant to Multilateral Treaty Interpretation in Relation