The Humber’s Future Economic and Sustainable Development White Paper containing the Final Report of the Research Project, April 2013 David B Grant (Editor) 3 1 0 2 l o o h c S s s e n i s u B y t i s r e v i n U l l u H The Humber’s Future Economic and Sustainable Development White Paper containing the Final Report of the Research Project, April 2013 David B Grant (Editor) 2 | 84 Contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................ 5 The Humber’s future economic and sustainable development ....................................... 7 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Objectives, work packages and deliverables ........................................................................................... 7 WP1: The current economic performance of the Humber sub-region based on economic activities and landscape ................................................................................. 9 Demographic features.............................................................................................................................. 9 Employment patterns ............................................................................................................................ 10 Industrial structure ................................................................................................................................ 12 Economic performance .......................................................................................................................... 12 Base and shift-share analysis ............................................................................................................ 12 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Motor vehicle traffic .......................................................................................................................... 15 Port traffic .......................................................................................................................................... 15 Housing market ................................................................................................................................. 15 Renewable energy .................................................................................................................................. 15 References .............................................................................................................................................. 17 List of tables ........................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix: Tables 1–23 and Figures 2–6. ............................................................................................. 19 WP2: Port-centric logistics ........................................................................................... 39 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 39 Port-centric logistics .............................................................................................................................. 39 Port-centric logistics in the Humber region..................................................................................... 39 Estimate of the current size of the market for port-centric logistics activity .................................... 40 Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 40 Gross value added (GVA) ................................................................................................................. 40 Estimate of future port centric logistics activity .................................................................................. 41 Survey questionnaire ......................................................................................................................... 41 Future employment ........................................................................................................................... 41 Gross value added .............................................................................................................................. 41 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 42 References .............................................................................................................................................. 42 WP3: Research on potential employment and value in offshore wind ......................... 43 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 43 Economic projections ............................................................................................................................ 44 SWOT analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Assessment of the ten tenets of sustainability for the proposed construction and installation of four offshore wind farms ............................................................................................................................... 46 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................ 48 Appendix A – key assumptions ............................................................................................................ 48 References .............................................................................................................................................. 49 WP4: Other renewable energy ....................................................................................... 51 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 51 Analysis methodology ............................................................................................................................ 51 Results – capacity, turnover and employment ..................................................................................... 53 Results – SWOT tables .......................................................................................................................... 56 3 | 84 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................57 Appendix A –Assumptions and caveats ............................................................................................... 58 References .............................................................................................................................................. 58 WP5: Sustainability in environmental management .................................................... 59 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 59 10-tenets for Humber sustainable development ................................................................................. 59 Application of the ten tenets ................................................................................................................. 62 Recommendations for further work ..................................................................................................... 63 References .............................................................................................................................................. 64 WP6: The future economic landscape (to 2025) for the economic performance of the Humber sub-region. ..................................................................................................... 67 Demographic change ............................................................................................................................. 67 Employment forecasting: sectoral and spatial distribution ................................................................ 69 The constant share method .............................................................................................................. 69 The shift share method ..................................................................................................................... 70 Data used ........................................................................................................................................... 70 Results ............................................................................................................................................... 70 The outlook for the renewable energy sector ........................................................................................ 71 List of figures ......................................................................................................................................... 74 References 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