EXAMENSARBETE INOM , AVANCERAD NIVÅ, 30 HP STOCKHOLM, SVERIGE 2019 Planning for sea level rise in Sweden A study regarding how the parliamentary parties relate to climate change adaptation of sea level rise EMILIA ERIKSSON KTH SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT TRITA TRITA-ABE-MBT-193 www.kth.se Planning for sea level rise in Sweden – A study regarding how the parliamentary parties relate to climate change adaptation of sea level rise Planering för havsnivåhöjning i Sverige – En studie angående hur riksdagspartierna arbetar med klimatanpassning av konsekvenser på grund av havsnivåhöjning Degree project course: Strategies for sustainable development, Second Cycle AL250X, 30 credits Author: Emilia Eriksson Supervisor: Jacob von Oelreich and Katja Gomez Examiner: Mattias Höjer Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering School of Architecture and the Built Environment KTH Royal Institute of Technology Abstract The consequences due to sea level rise are many, and will affect the environment and societies all around the world. There is uncertainty about how much and how quickly the sea will rise. Despite the uncertainties, society must be adapted to a changing climate. The climate change adaptation work is relatively new in Sweden, and there are still uncertainties about how this work should be carried out, and by whom. This thesis examines to what degree the Swedish parliament parties’ view on how to plan and adapt to sea level rise differ. The study is based on interviews with representatives from a majority of the political parties in the Swedish parliament. The results show that the interviewed representatives all agree that climate change and sea level rise are important issues to work with. The result also shows that the different parties have managed to agree on what they want to achieve, but not how or when it is best to implement adaptation measures towards sea level rise and other climate change-related effects. Keywords: Sea level rise, Climate change adaptation, Climate change, Politicians, The Swedish Parliament. Sammanfattning Konsekvenserna av havsnivåhöjningar är många, och kommer att påverka miljön och samhällen över hela jorden. Det råder osäkerheter om hur mycket och hur snabbt haven kommer höjas. Trots osäkerheterna så måste samhället anpassas till ett förändrat klimat. Klimatanpassningsarbetet är relativt nytt i Sverige och det råder fortfarande oklarheter om hur detta ska genomföras och av vem. Uppsatsen undersöker i vilken utsträckning de svenska riksdagspartiernas åsikter angående planeringen och anpassningar till havsnivåhöjningen skiljer sig. Studien bygger på intervjuer med representanter från en majoritet av de politiska partierna i riksdagen. Resultaten visar på att de intervjuade representanterna alla håller med om att klimatanpassning är viktigt att arbeta med. Resultaten visar även på att de olika partierna har lyckats enas om vad man vill uppnå, men dock inte på vilket sätt man ska gå till väga eller när det är bäst att implementera åtgärder mot havsnivåhöjning och andra klimatförändringsrelaterade effekter. Nyckelord: Havsnivåhöjning, Klimatanpassning, Klimatförändringar, Politiker, Sveriges riksdag. Acknowledgments There are many people that I would like to thank, who have contributed with wise words and support throughout this process. Thank you to the people I have interviewed, who have shared their thoughts and knowledge. Without you, I would not have been able to complete the thesis. I would like to offer my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Jacob von Oelreich and Katja Gomez, who have guided and inspired me when the writing felt tough. Thank you for listening to and reading what I have been writing and for giving me advice. I would also like to thank my examiner, Mattias Höjer, and my opponent Sanna Moliis for your comments and feedback. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends who have been supporting me throughout the process. Stockholm, 2019 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Rationale of the study ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Aim and objectives .................................................................................................................. 2 1.3. Research question ................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1. Scope ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1.1. Limitations ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.4. Background .............................................................................................................................. 3 1.4.1. Climate change ................................................................................................................ 3 1.4.2. Levels of governance ....................................................................................................... 4 1.4.3. Roles of agencies, county administrative boards and municipalities ............................. 5 2. Research area overview – theoretical framework .......................................................................... 7 2.1. Sea level rise ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1. Sweden ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.2. Consequences due to sea level rise......................................................................................... 7 2.3. Uncertainty .............................................................................................................................. 9 2.3.1. Decision-making during uncertainty ............................................................................... 9 2.4. Climate change responses - possible strategies towards sea level rise ................................ 10 2.4.1. Climate change adaptation ........................................................................................... 10 2.5. Climate change adaptation in Sweden .................................................................................. 10 2.5.1. The climate policy framework ....................................................................................... 11 2.5.2. The Climate Adaptation Strategy .................................................................................. 11 2.5.3. Division of responsibility regarding climate adaptation ................................................ 12 2.5.4. Adaptation strategies towards sea level rise ................................................................ 13 2.5.5. Applied use of strategies ............................................................................................... 14 2.5.6. Critique towards the strategies ..................................................................................... 15 2.6. The parliamentary parties’ climate policy work .................................................................... 16 3. Method .......................................................................................................................................... 17 3.1. Interviews .............................................................................................................................. 17 3.1.1. Selection process for the interviews ............................................................................. 17 3.1.2. Treatment and presentation of the results from the interviews .................................. 19 3.1.3. Data analysis .................................................................................................................. 19 3.2. Data collection for non-participating parties ........................................................................ 19 4. Results ........................................................................................................................................... 20 4.1. Results from interviews ......................................................................................................... 20 4.1.1. Relevance of planning for sea level rise in Sweden today ............................................ 20 4.1.2. Greatest threats of sea level rise ................................................................................... 20 4.1.3. How Sweden should plan for a rising sea –planning strategies towards sea level rise 21 4.1.4. Responsibility distribution ............................................................................................. 22 4.1.5. Climate Adaptation Strategy and the Planning and Building Act .................................. 23 4.1.6. Time perspective when planning for sea level rise ....................................................... 24 4.1.7. The uncertainty aspect regarding sea level rise ............................................................ 25 4.1.8. Knowledge regarding sea level rise amongst the members of parliament ................... 25 4.1.9. Politician´s work to prevent negative consequences of climate change ...................... 26 4.1.10. Do the parties have a similar