Commissioning Draft Update Central Bedfordshire profile Aligns with Chiltern Vale, Horizon, Ivel Valley, Leighton Buzzard and West Mid Beds PBCs. Total population (2001): Central Bedfordshire Total male female 0-15 50210 25930 24280 16-64 151850 76370 75480 65+ 31620 13810 17810 85+ 3480 1030 2450 All ages 233650 116100 117550 Source: 2001 Census. Numbers are rounded and may not add up exactly. Age profile Population by Age Central Bedfordshire 50210 151850 31620 Sandy/Biggleswade 14880 45860 9370 Dunstable 9680 29640 7390 Age 0-15 Age 16-64 Age 65+ AdultLocality Leighton Linslade 7730 23950 4800 Houghton Regis 6430 17390 3160 Ampthill/Flitwick 11490 35010 6900 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of population by age group Source: 2001 Census Ethnicity Not White 3% White British 219665 Chinese 360 White Other 4586 Black Caribbean 327 White Irish 3079 Mixed: white and black Caribbean 675 White Indian 1458 97% Mixed: white and Asian 455 All other ethnicities 2971 Source: 2001 Census Percentage of population whose ethnic group is not ‘white’, by age Future work will involve comparison against all 5 individual locality areas 5 Ampthill / Flitwick 4 Central Bedfordshire 3 % 2 1 0 Total population 0 -15 16 - pensionable age Pensionable age + Source: 2001 Census Home ownership Rate of home ownership, by age group. Future work will involve comparison against all 5 adult localities) 100 Ampthill / Flitwick 90 Central Bedfordshire 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 All people 50 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85+ Source: 2001 Census. Note: These figures include shared ownership Unemployment in this locality was 1.9% of the working age population in January 2010. This was equal to 690 people. Unemployment for Central Bedfordshire as a whole was 3.0%. (Source: Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimant Count) Deprivation In Central Bedfordshire, no small areas are within the worst 20% in England using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). In the Ampthill / Flitwick locality, one small area, Flitwick East 400, is the eighth most deprived in Central Bedfordshire, and is in the worst 10-20% in the East of England. In addition, 31% of older people in Flitwick East 400 live in income deprived households. Notes on deprivation: • The index of multiple deprivation (IMD) calculates overall deprivation at small area level for the whole of England. • Older people’s deprivation is measured using the income deprivation affecting older people index (IDAOPI), also at small area level. • The small areas used to calculate deprivation (both IMD and IDAOPI) are called lower super output areas (LSOAs). There are 154 small areas in Central Bedfordshire. Each contains around 1,500 people. • Small areas are identified using the ward name and a three digit code. Additional Information From Social Care, Health & Housing Central Bedfordshire Over Over 75 Population 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Population 15,000 10,000 2009/Baseline 2015 Forecast 2020 Forecast 2025 Forecast 2030 Forecast Timeline Percentage of Population Over 75 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Central Bedfordshire 4.0% Ampthill/Flitwick Population 2.0% 0.0% ec Dunstable 2009/Baseline 2015 Forecast 2020 Forecast 2025 Forecast 2030 Forecast Central Bedfordshire 6.4% 7.1% 7.9% 9.4% 10.1% Houghton Regis Ampthill/Flitw ick 6% 6.6% 7.3% 8.7% 9.4% Dunstable 7.8% 8.6% 9.6% 11.4% 12.3% Leighton Linslade Houghton Regis 5.7% 6.3% 7.0% 8.4% 8.9% Leighton Linslade 6.3% 6.9% 7.8% 9.2% 10.1% Sandy Biggleswade Sandy Bigglesw ade 6.3% 6.9% 7.7% 9.2% 9.9% Timeline The over 75 population across Central Bedfordshire is reasonably well spread across the authority with the exception of a slightly higher concentration in the Sand/Biggleswade area.. The over 75 population across Central Bedfordshire is predicted to double in size by 2030. 1 Central Bedfordshire Care Capacity by Type 10,000 8,000 Extra Care Housing Units 6,000 Sheltered Housing Units 4,000 Nursing Care Beds Beds/Units 2,000 Residential Care Beds - 2009/Baseline 2015 2020 2025 2030 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Timeline At present there is supported housing capacity in Central Bedfordshire for 1 in 4 of the over 75 population with the majority being sheltered housing. If we want to maintain the same level of supported housing we would need to look at the investment options available around the development of Extra Care Housing across Central Bedfordshire. 1 Source: POPPI 2009 Baseline - Care Capacity as a % of over 75 population 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Central Bedfordshire 10.0% Ampthill/Flitwick Units/Beds 0.0% Dunstable % Residential Care Beds % Nursing Care Beds % Sheltered Housing Units % Extra Care Housing Units % Total Capacity Sandy Biggleswade % Residential Care Beds % Nursing Care Beds % Sheltered Housing Units % Extra Care Housing Units % Total Capacity Central Bedfordshire 3.2% 3.4% 16.5% 0.8% 23.9% Leighton Linslade Ampthill/Flitw ick 0.9% 2.3% 18.9% 0.7% 22.9% Dunstable 4.9% 0.0% 9.5% 0.4% 14.8% Houghton Regis Sandy Bigglesw ade 2.9% 5.3% 24.7% 0.7% 33.6% Leighton Linslade 5.3% 9.2% 14.0% 1.2% 29.7% Houghton Regis 2.9% 0.0% 8.6% 2.0% 13.4% Care Type The overall capacity of supported housing across Central Bedfordshire varies by adult locality, both in total and by specific type. Future Priorities Given this analysis, the proposed priorities for are reviewing and where appropriate redressing the imbalances as well as ensuring current stock is fit for purpose and development supports projected population growth. .