GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION AND SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 5, 2009 FEBRUARY 4, 2010 and MARCH 18, 2010 Serial No. 111–62 Serial No. 111–75 and Serial No. 111–88 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION AND SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 5, 2009 FEBRUARY 4, 2010 and MARCH 18, 2010 Serial No. 111–62 Serial No. 111–75 and Serial No. 111–88 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 53–007PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BART GORDON, Tennessee, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois RALPH M. HALL, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER JR., LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California Wisconsin DAVID WU, Oregon LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas BRIAN BAIRD, Washington DANA ROHRABACHER, California BRAD MILLER, North Carolina ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio W. TODD AKIN, Missouri BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas PAUL D. TONKO, New York BOB INGLIS, South Carolina STEVEN R. ROTHMAN, New Jersey MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas JIM MATHESON, Utah MARIO DIAZ-BALART, Florida LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee BRIAN P. BILBRAY, California BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky ADRIAN SMITH, Nebraska RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BARON P. HILL, Indiana PETE OLSON, Texas HARRY E. MITCHELL, Arizona CHARLES A. WILSON, Ohio KATHLEEN DAHLKEMPER, Pennsylvania ALAN GRAYSON, Florida SUZANNE M. KOSMAS, Florida GARY C. PETERS, Michigan JOHN GARAMENDI, California VACANCY SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HON. BRIAN BAIRD, Washington, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois BOB INGLIS, South Carolina EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona W. TODD AKIN, Missouri BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas PAUL D. TONKO, New York MARIO DIAZ-BALART, Florida JIM MATHESON, Utah LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky JOHN GARAMENDI, California BART GORDON, Tennessee RALPH M. HALL, Texas CHRIS KING Democratic Staff Director SHIMERE WILLIAMS Democratic Professional Staff Member ADAM ROSENBERG Democratic Professional Staff Member JETTA WONG Democratic Professional Staff Member ANNE COOPER Democratic Professional Staff Member ROBERT WALTHER Democratic Professional Staff Member DAN BYERS Republican Professional Staff Member TARA ROTHSCHILD Republican Professional Staff Member JANE WISE Research Assistant (II) C O N T E N T S Geoengineering: Assessing the Implications of Large- Scale Climate Intervention November 5, 2009 Page Witness List ............................................................................................................. 2 Hearing Charter ...................................................................................................... 3 Opening Statements Statement by Representative Bart Gordon, Chairman, Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ............................................... 11 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 12 Statement by Representative Ralph M. Hall, Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ......... 13 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 13 Prepared Statement by Representative Jerry F. Costello, Member, Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ............................. 14 Prepared Statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Member, Com- mittee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ................. 14 Witnesses: Dr. Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Science, Department of Global Ecology, The Carnegie Institution of Washington, and Co-Author, Royal Society Report Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 16 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 17 Professor John Shepherd, FRS, Professional Research Fellow in Earth System Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, and Chair, Royal Society Geoengineering Report Working Group Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 27 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 28 Biography .......................................................................................................... 32 Mr. Lee Lane, Co-Director, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Geoengineering Project Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 33 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 34 Biography .......................................................................................................... 43 Dr. Alan Robock, Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, School of Environmental And Biological Sciences, Rutgers University Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 43 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 45 Biography .......................................................................................................... 51 Dr. James Fleming, Professor and Director, Science, Technology and Society Program, Colby College Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 68 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 72 Biography .......................................................................................................... 79 Discussion The Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: Natural Solar Radiation Management ........... 80 Structuring a Research Initiative ....................................................................... 80 (III) IV Page The Potential Efficacy of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ...................................... 82 Research and Development Before Application ................................................. 83 The Dire Need for Mitigation and Behavior Change ........................................ 84 The Need for a Multidisciplinary and Realistic Approach to Climate Change ............................................................................................................... 85 The Challenge of International Collaboration ................................................... 87 Agriculture and Livestock ................................................................................... 87 The Power of Scientific Innovation ..................................................................... 89 Geoengineering and Climate Simulations .......................................................... 90 A Potential Role for NASA .................................................................................. 90 Skepticism of Global Climate Change ................................................................ 95 Prioritizing Geoengineering Strategies .............................................................. 97 Needed International Agreements ...................................................................... 98 More on Livestock Methane Output ................................................................... 99 The Need for Mitigation ...................................................................................... 99 Global Dimming and Risks of Stratospheric Injections .................................... 100 The Impact of Ingenuity and Behavior Change ................................................ 100 Climate Modeling Resources ............................................................................... 101 Appendix 1: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions Dr. Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Science, Department of Global Ecology, The Carnegie Institution of Washington, and Co-Author, Royal Society Report ....................................................................................................... 109 Professor John Shepherd, FRS, Professional Research Fellow in Earth System Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, and Chair, Royal Society Geoengineering Report Working Group .......................... 110 Mr. Lee Lane, Co-Director, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Geoengineering Project .......................................................................................