3G MOBILE LICENSING POLICY: FROM GSM TO IMT-2000 - A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS GSM Case Study This case has been prepared by Audrey Selian <[email protected]>, ITU. 3G Mobile Licensing Policy: GSM Case Study is part of a series of Telecommunication Case Studies produced under the New Initiatives program of the Office of the Secretary General of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The author wishes to acknowledge the valuable guidance and direction of Tim Kelly and Fabio Leite of the ITU in the development of this study. The 3G case studies program is managed by Lara Srivastava <[email protected]> and under the direction of Ben Petrazzini <[email protected]>. Country case studies on 3G, including Sweden, Japan, China & Hong Kong SAR, Chile, Venezuela, and Ghana can be found at <http://www.itu.int/3g>. The opinions expressed in this study are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Telecommunication Union, its membership or the GSM Association. 2 GSM Case Study TABLE OF CONTENTS: 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 The Generations of Mobile Networks................................................................................................ 7 2 A Look Back at GSM .............................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 GSM Technology............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 The History of GSM ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 Conference Des Administrations Europeans des Posts et Telecommunications (CEPT)........12 2.2.2 The European Commission and the Memorandum of Understanding.....................................13 2.2.3 European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI).....................................................14 2.2.4 The “Frequency Band” Obstacle Course ................................................................................. 14 2.2.5 The Conclusion of the Interstate Bargain ................................................................................ 15 2.2.6 The Launch .............................................................................................................................. 15 2.2.7 The United States and the FCC................................................................................................ 16 2.3 The GSM Market............................................................................................................................. 16 2.3.1 The GSM Success Story .......................................................................................................... 16 2.3.2 Future Market Development .................................................................................................... 17 2.4 Licensing GSM................................................................................................................................ 18 2.4.1 GSM Radio Spectrum..............................................................................................................19 3 A Look Ahead at IMT-2000 .................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 From GSM to IMT-2000 ................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 HSCSD (High-Speed Circuit Switched Data) ......................................................................... 22 3.1.2 GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) .................................................................................... 22 3.1.3 EDGE, Enhanced Data GSM Environment ............................................................................. 23 3.2 IMT-2000 Technology..................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 The History of IMT-2000 ................................................................................................................ 25 3.4 Laying the Groundwork for 3G Success.......................................................................................... 27 3.4.1 Addressing the Need for 3G Spectrum Expansion .................................................................. 27 3.5 The 3G Market................................................................................................................................. 28 3.6 3G Licensing Policies ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.6.1 The European Experience........................................................................................................33 3.6.2 The American Experience........................................................................................................35 3.6.3 The Asia-Pacific Experience....................................................................................................37 4 Comparing and Contrasting the Development of GSM and the Road to IMT-2000............................... 37 4.1 Lessons from GSM that Apply to 3G ..............................................................................................38 4.1.1 The Shifting Dynamic of Major Players.................................................................................. 38 4.1.2 The Critical Role of Equipment Manufacturing ...................................................................... 39 4.1.3 Learning from the Numbers..................................................................................................... 41 4.1.4 Timeline for Deployment.........................................................................................................42 3 GSM Case Study 4.2 Lessons from GSM that Don’t Apply to 3G.................................................................................... 43 4.2.1 A Harmonized Approach to License Allocation...................................................................... 43 4.2.2 The Underlying Philosophy of the Markeplace ....................................................................... 44 4.2.3 Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) and Limitations on Manufacturers...................................45 4.3 Is 3G Unique? .................................................................................................................................. 46 4.3.1 The Heavy Burden of the 3rd Generation – Consolidation Trends...........................................46 4.3.2 3G Deployment Costs.............................................................................................................. 46 5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 48 6 Appendix:................................................................................................................................................. 50 4 GSM Case Study TABLES AND FIGURES: TABLE 1.1: REGIONAL DOMINANCE OF CURRENT WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS...........................................8 TABLE 2.1: TIMELINE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF GSM .........................................................................................................12 TABLE 2.2: DIGITAL LICENSE ASSIGNMENT PATTERNS........................................................................................................19 TABLE 2.3: COMPARATIVE VIEW ON SERVICES/APPLICATIONS .........................................................................................20 TABLE 2.4: DETAILED COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, AND 3RD GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES ......................................21 TABLE 3.1: ECONOMIES WHERE MOBILE PHONES HAVE OVERTAKEN FIXED ONES.....................................................30 TABLE 3.2: SUMMARY FORECAST FOR MOBILE SERVICE IN WESTERN EUROPE (TO 2004)..........................................32 TABLE 3.3: GLOBAL MOBILE COMMERCE REVENUES, 2000 - 2005 (USD MILLIONS).......................................................32 TABLE 4.1: ESTIMATED COST OF GSM AND UMTS NETWORKS...........................................................................................48 TABLE 6.1: ALLOCATION OF 3G MOBILE LICENCES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION..............................................................50 FIGURE 1.1: THE 4 OPERATIONAL DIGITAL CELLULAR TECHNOLOGIES: DEC ’00 (637 MILLION USERS) ..................8 FIGURE 1.2: WORLD GSM CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS TO JUNE 2001 ......................................................................................9 FIGURE 2.1: FORECASTED ADOPTION OF GSM MOBILE PHONES IN WESTERN EUROPE AND THE WORLD .............17 FIGURE 2.2: COMPARISON OF 2G / 2.5G / 3G SUBSCRIBERSHIP IN EUROPE .......................................................................18 FIGURE 2.3: FORECASTED SUBSCRIBERS FOR GSM, GPRS, UMTS AND HSCSD SYSTEMS IN EUROPE........................18 FIGURE 2.5: A STEP-BY-STEP TOWARDS IMT-2000 (UMTS)....................................................................................................21 FIGURE 2.6: FROM GSM TO UMTS: LIKELY PATHS TO 3G......................................................................................................24 FIGURE 3.1: IMT-2000 TERRESTRIAL RADIO INTERFACES.....................................................................................................27