Afghanistan Reconstruction Vision September 2002 JSCE in consultation with Kabul University Preface Twenty years of war have devastated Afghanistan. It is estimated that the reconstruction of the devastated national land and government agencies will cost $10.2 billion over the five years to 2006. The countries and organizations participating in the earlier International Conference on Reconstruction Assistance to Afghanistan identified education, health, infrastructure development and other priorities for the war-torn country’s reconstruction and pledged a total of $4.5 billion in aid. Aid-providing countries and international organizations are now working out the specific ways of assistance. In this respect, they must take care to prevent their assistance from being unreasonably dispersed in an inefficient manner, since a variety of countries and international organizations are providing aid for a variety or areas and geographical regions. To this end, donor countries, international organizations and nongovernmental organizations share a basic strategy and vision on the national reconstruction with the aid-receiving nation and its people. They are urgently required to formulate this strategy and vision. It is up to the Afghan people to decide on the basic strategy and vision for national reconstruction. The Interim Administration of Afghanistan has spelled out its strategy for the reconstruction and development in its National Development Framework that it worked out in the run up to the International Conference on Reconstruction Assistance to Afghanistan. It is now mapping out a specific vision for the reconstruction. Japan, as one of a few donor countries that experienced reconstruction after World War II and as an Asian country like Afghanistan, is positioned to make positive contributions to the Afghan people’s efforts to work out the national reconstruction vision. Based on such realization, the Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE), as a new-type NGO consisting of experts, has launched the Special Committee on Reconstruction Vision of Afghanistan to consider a reconstruction vision from the viewpoints of national land planning, regional community development, infrastructure development and other special areas. Furthermore, the committee discussed the issue with Kabul University, and finally we reached a consensus on the vision. The vision by the JSCE centers on the reconstruction of physical infrastructure, which is the second of the three pillars cited in the National Development Framework. The JSCE and the committee hope that the vision will become a base for the exchange of views between experts from the Afghan government, stakeholder nations and international organizations and will make some contributions to the Afghan people’s efforts to map out their own vision. Note) Main text is available on http://www.jsce.or.jp/ & any inquiry and comments should be addressed to [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1 1. Overview ................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1. Significance of the Vision and Basic Concept........................................................... 6 1.1.1. Support for National Unification .......................................................................................... 6 1.1.2. Improvement of People’s Living Conditions and Provision of Employment Opportunities........................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1.3. Formation of “International Corridor Nation” ................................................................... 7 1.2. Preparation of Reconstruction Vision of Afghanistan.................................................... 7 1.2.1. “Crescent to Full Moon Initiative”........................................................................................ 7 1.2.2. Toward Implementation of Reconstruction Vision ............................................................ 8 2. Human and National Frameworks in Afghanistan................................... 10 2.1. The Nation and Characteristics Thereof.................................................................... 10 2.1.1. Transportation Infrastructure.............................................................................................. 10 2.1.2. Industry .................................................................................................................................. 13 2.1.3. Ethnic Problems Causing Concern ..................................................................................... 14 2.1.4. Agricultural Communities and Cities ................................................................................ 15 2.2. Current State of the Nation............................................................................................ 17 2.3. Population Trend and Future Population Projection ........................................... 21 2.3.1. Basic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 21 2.3.2. Projected Future Population of Afghanistan..................................................................... 22 2.3.3. Projected Population by Region (Province/City)............................................................. 24 3. Reconstruction Vision of Afghanistan .............................................................. 31 3.1 Rehabilitation of the Economy and Industry .......................................................... 31 3.1.1. Basic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 31 3.1.2. Promotion of agriculture ...................................................................................................... 32 3.1.3. Development of light industry ............................................................................................ 43 3.1.4. Development of natural resources...................................................................................... 46 3.1.5. Transit Trade.......................................................................................................................... 48 3.2 Improvement of Infrastructure..................................................................................... 50 3.2.1 Basic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 50 3.2.2 Transportation Infrastructure.............................................................................................. 51 3.2.3 Electric Power ........................................................................................................................ 55 3.2.4 Water Supply in Urban Areas ............................................................................................. 60 3.3 Promotion of collaboration between Cities and Agricultural Communities 65 3.3.1 Autonomous development of cities and agricultural communities .............................. 65 3.3.2 Development of the capital .................................................................................................. 65 3.3.3 Other important tasks...........................................................................................................66 4. Plan for using the $4.5 billion in pledged aid............................................... 68 4.1. Basic Policy.......................................................................................................................... 68 4.2. Evaluation of $4.5 Billion in Pledged Aid ................................................................ 68 4.3. Prioritization and Levels of Reconstruction Projects............................................ 70 4.4. Job Creation and Reconstruction Methods .............................................................. 72 4.5. Proposals for Some Specific Measures ...................................................................... 73 4.6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 74 Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................... 75 Members of The Special Committee for Afghan Reconstruction Vision .. 76 Bibliography.................................................................................................................................. 77 Introduction of Japan Society of Civil Engineers.................................................... 78 Appendix 1 Confirmation Letter from JSCE to Kabul University ............ 79 Appendix 2 Afghanistan : Urban Population Estimates................................. 81 Appendix 3 JSCE Mission to Afghanistan............................................................... 82 Executive Summary Executive Summary 0. Background A year after the World War II, Japan formulated National Reconstruction and Development Plan. As its economy started recovering in the 1950s, Japan compiled several comprehensive regional development plans for key development areas. In 1960s, Japan formulated the first National Comprehensive Development Plan to cope with massive population inflow to urban areas, great needs in infrastructure development,