ISSN 2239-2122 THE UNEASY BALANCE POTENTIAL AND CHALLENGES OF THE WEST’S RELATIONS WITH THE GULF STATES RESEARCH PAPERS IAI Edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Andrea Dessì IAI Research Papers The Uneasy Balance 3RWHQWLDODQG&KDOOHQJHVRIWKH:HVW·V Relations with the Gulf States Edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Andrea Dessì Edizioni Nuova Cultura Acknowledgement This publication has been generously supported by the Compagnia di San Paolo, the ǡ ȋϐ Ȍǡ Rome, NATO Public Diplomacy Division, and Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Series Editor Natalino Ronzitti First published 2013 by Edizioni Nuova Cultura For Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Via Angelo Brunetti 9 - I-00186 Roma www.iai.it Copyright © 2013 Edizioni Nuova Cultura - Roma ISBN: 9788868120504 Cover: by the author Graphic Composition: by the author The unauthorized reproduction of this book, even partial, carried out by any means, including photocopying, even for internal or didactic use, is prohibited by copyright. Preface In the wake of the Arab uprisings, the member states of the Gulf ȋ ȌȂǡǡǡǡ Ȃ ǡ economic and military involvement in the Arab world. GCC states have, with certain variations, played an important role in the political tran- sformations underway in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria while ϐ ϐ monarchies of Morocco and Jordan and decisively coming out against any political change in Bahrain. In parallel to the GCC’s increased role ǡȋȌȋȌ ϐ - ding Arab allies and the economic crisis. In light of these developments, Ǧ as a major dynamic over the past two years. While great potential for cooperation exists and, in some areas, immediate interests do overlap, ϐ West’s necessity to balance its economic and strategic interests in the region with a broader commitment to support the spread of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. The evolving relationship between the West and the GCC was the topic ϐTransatlantic Security Symposium, the annual conference series1ȗ ȋ Ȍ and held in Rome on 16 November 2012. In line with past editions, the Symposium attracted participants of great experience and seniority from * Further information about the Transatlantic Security Symposium 2012 is avai- lable on IAI’s website: http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid=2&contentid=+434&ritorno=. Information about past editions is available at http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langi- d=2&contentid=700. 5 PREFACE ǣǡ the Gulf, including both GCC states and Iran. The event was generously supported by Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which also hosted the event, as well as by other regular sponsors of the Symposium series, such as the Compagnia di San Paolo, the Robert Bosch Stiftung, the Friedrich ȋϐ Ȍǡǯ Ǥ Ǥ This volume collects the revised and updated versions of the papers presented and discussed at the conference. Also included are an introduc- tory chapter and a detailed report of the discussion held at the conference. As editors, we would like to thank the sponsors and conference parti- cipants for contributing to a successful event, and ultimately for making the publication of this volume possible. (R.A., A.D.) 6 Table of Contents List of Contributors ........................................................................................................................9 List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................11 Introduction. The West and the Gulf States at the Dawn of the New Millennium, Riccardo Alcaro ..................................................................................................................................13 1. The GCC States and the West: Challenges of Arab Transitions, Christian Koch ................................................................................................................... 33 2. The Arab Spring: the Changing Dynamics of West-GCC Cooperation, Claire Spencer and Jane Kinninmont ........................................................................49 ͵Ǥ ǣ Ǧ ǡ Simon Henderson ..............................................................................................................71 4. Triangulating Iranian-Western-GCC Relations, Rouzbeh Parsi .....................................................................................................................83 ͷǤ ǣ Convergence and Divergence between the West and the GCC, Frederic Wehrey ................................................................................................................97 6. The Odd Couple: NATO and the GCC, Florence Gaub ..................................................................................................................113 Appendix A. NATO’s Relations with the Gulf Region, Rolf Schwarz .............................................................................................127 7 Ǥ Ǧ the Gulf Cooperation Council. Report of the Transatlantic Security Symposium 2012, Andrea Dessì ............................................................................................133 Appendix C. List of Participants in the Transatlantic Security Symposium 2012 ................................................................................147 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 153 8 List of Contributors ĎĈĈĆėĉĔ đĈĆėĔ is Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Programme, and Project Manager, Transatlantic Security Symposium, Istituto Affari ȋ ȌǡǤ ēĉėĊĆ ĊĘĘł is Junior Researcher, Mediterranean and Middle East ǡ ȋ ȌǡǤ đĔėĊēĈĊ ĆĚć is Researcher and Lecturer, Middle East Faculty, NATO Defence College, Rome. ĎĒĔē ĊēĉĊėĘĔēis Senior Fellow and Director, Gulf and Energy Policy Programme, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington DC. ĆēĊ ĎēēĎēĒĔēę is Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North ǡ ǡǤ čėĎĘęĎĆēĔĈč ǡ ȋ Ȍǡ Geneva. ĔĚğćĊčĆėĘĎ ǡ ȋ ȌǡǤ ĔđċĈčĜĆėğ ϐ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǤ đĆĎėĊ ĕĊēĈĊė ǡ ǡ ǡǤ 9 LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS ėĊĉĊėĎĈ ĊčėĊĞ is Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for ȋ ȌǡǤ 10 List of Abbreviations 9/11 11 September 2001 AAB Abdullah Azzam Brigades AL Arab League AML/CTF Anti-Money Laundering/ Counter-Terrorism Financing Ǧ Ǧ ǦȋȌ BDF Bahrain Defence Force BICI Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry BTWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention ȋȌ ȋȌ CMF Combined Maritime Forces CT Counter-Terrorism CTF Combined Task Force CTF-150 Combined Task Force Maritime Security and Counter-Terrorism CTF-151 Combined Task Forces Counter-Piracy CTF-152 Combined Task Forces Arabian Gulf Security and Cooperation CWC Chemical Weapons Convention ECSC European Coal and Steel Community EEAS European External Action Service ENP European Neighbourhood Policy 11 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS the Western Ocean GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ȋȌ IMB International Maritime Bureau IMF International Monetary Fund IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency ISAF International Security Assistance Force ȋȌ MENA Middle East and North Africa MENWFZ Middle Eastern Nuclear Weapons Free Zone NAC North Atlantic Council NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ȋȌ NTM-I NATO Training Mission Iraq OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe ϐ ȋȌ ȋȌ SAMA Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency SSR Security Sector Reform TOW Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked, Wire-Guided Missile WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction 12 Introduction The West and the Gulf States at the Dawn of the New Millennium Riccardo Alcaro ϐ Ȃ ȋȌ ȋȌȂ ȋ Ȍ the beginning of the new millennium. At the cost of oversimplifying things, whereas the former has seemed to be declining, at least in rela- tion to other international players, the latter has witnessed a dramatic surge in its international status. ǯ - ǡϐǦʹͳ - Ǥ Ȃ - Ȃǡ once-uncontested global pre-eminence erode due to the rapid rise of new ǡϐǤ ǡǯ - bility as the world’s benign hegemon has been tainted by two long, con- troversial and ultimately failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, a diminished capacity to mobilise resources in the pursuit of major for- eign policy goals, as well as the tarnishing of the liberal economic model of Western capitalism, further stand out among the many side-effects ʹͲͲͺǦͲͻǤ ǯ Ǥǡ espoused with much fanfare in 2000, to turn an ever more integrated ǯ ϐ ϐ Ǥǡ 13 RICCARDO ALCARO ȋ Ȍ for its achievements (although this blunt assessment might well be too ȌǤ recession and anaemic growth, national budgets under severe strain and deep disagreements about whether European integration should be brought forward or recalibrated along the pattern of a looser union, of competition from Asian economies and the growing clout of new rising powers. If clouds gathered over the West at the dawn of the third millennium, Ǥϐ ǡ Ȃǡǡǡ ǡȋȌȂ double blessing of a steady rise in global energy demand coupled with skyrocketing oil prices. The geographic collocation of the Peninsula, midway between a rising and dynamic East and the wealthy West, only added to the GCC’s fortunes. Flooded with revenues originating from energy transactions, the governments of GCC member states enjoyed the rare privilege of having a whole wealth of options as to where to ϐ Ǥ long-term guarantees from an unexpected and abrupt reversal of luck, notably the accumulation of massive